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Bubble Flop - Call or Jam? Bubble Flop - Call or Jam?

07-30-2018 , 09:47 PM
Had this situation this week, its final two tables, 16 players left of 127 player field $180 buy in. Pays 12.

Im currently around 12th/16 players remaining, so fighting to make the money. Blinds are 3k/6k, UTG stack 45BB, CO stack 70BB, my stack BTN 27 BB. UTG is an older gentleman who has mostly been playing relatively loose but almost never opens the pot himself. CO is playing quite loose also. On to the hand.

UTG raises 3x to 18k. The standard raise has been 2x or slightly over, so this size combined with him almost never opening pots is something i noted immediately. CO calls and i have A 10 on BTN. With the bubble i decide a call is fine here to see a flop.

Flop comes A K 10 .

UTG cbets around 70% pot, CO makes the call. What do you do here given the action and the situation? I think its a pretty tough one, i really dont expect UTG to cbet into two opponents here with many weaker hands than mine, maybe AQ/AJ sure...i expect CO can have a wide range of just one pair hands here that have to call once, but he can of course have the QJ. Im basically thinking that if i jam here, i only get called by better, as i dont expect even AQ/AJ from UTG to call, do you agree or should this spot just be a jam?
Let me know your thoughts thanks!!
Bubble Flop - Call or Jam? Quote
07-31-2018 , 01:06 AM
I'd be willing to fold the flop. Call me a nit but I think that old man has discounted combos of AJ preflop, and then his flop sizing heavily discounts his AJ/AQ combos.

It's also fair to assume this villain bluffs this texture precisely 0% of the time.

Even if he said to you, hey all my combos of AJ are in my range pre and I'd be willing to size 70% with one pair hands on the flop, flop is of course a good call but you're still in a spot on the turn and river. Jamming here is definitely sinful and imo the worse of the 3 options.

The tricky spot you're in highlights a bit of an error in calling preflop. You'll want to be doing a bit better against such a tight range.
Bubble Flop - Call or Jam? Quote
07-31-2018 , 11:10 AM
Im interested that you see a fold as an option here. I never even considered folding.
So what happened was i had a think and decided on a just call as i concluded i was likely beat by at least one of the opponents. The turn came the nut worst card, a J. UTG bet again and CO jammed all in. I of course fold and UTG tank folded to the jam but showed JJ for a turned set. CO showed KQ.
In summary its clear UTG played this hand terribly, CO played it pretty standard, but obviously i was feeling pretty sick after seeing the cards as i surely would have took it down with a jam on the flop. Obviously thats just being silly as i knew a jam would have been a bad play, but still it would have give me a lot of chips! I ended up getting 8th place anyway after a double up shortly after.
Bubble Flop - Call or Jam? Quote
07-31-2018 , 05:22 PM
Nice job cashing! And good job resisting the urge to shove even though you'd have done it with the best hand here.
Bubble Flop - Call or Jam? Quote
08-16-2018 , 06:22 AM
I think we can fold pre at these stack depths - a call has us going to the flop with an SPR of <2.5x 3 way where our Ace is very often dominated (especially with the reads on the UTG player) and we don't have deep enough stacks to get value from nut flushes when we make them.

Other than rare ATx,TTx, KQJr or XsXsXs flops (and maybe some good boards with two spades) there aren't a whole lot of situations that we are comfortable getting more chips in with and even then there is only a limited range of hands that can give us action.
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