Could probably read the forum and find the answer to this one but here it is anyway.

Down to 4 handed, UTG is a super short stack, Button and myself (SB) with mid-size stacks and Monster stack on the BB. Folds to me, AK

Standard Raise, Shove or Fold?

(I elected to shove and exited 4th flipping against BB's pocket 5's)

Exact stack sizes and blind level is needed for anybody to help mate. I believe you should be shoving AKs but depends on how extreme the ICM is. I suggest you download icmizer. You get a few free uses per day and during my current downswing I am doing more ICM calculations and you would be surprised how extreme they are. Folding AKs to a shove is recommended however in most cases shoving it can't be bad.

Btw raise folding AKs is horrific and open folding doesn't seem good either so think your only play is to shove however if you have around 10bb and UTG will be all in next hand then you could fold. You have to also take into account where if you shove and get called and win, what are your chances of winning? If you have an edge over the other players then shoving seems good as you have more chance of 1st than playing for 2nd/3rd. If nobody has an edge at the table then you could consider playing for 2nd/3rd

$13,500 in Chips on the table
Not exact but close...
UTG 800
Button 3000
SB (me) 3000
BB 6700
Blinds are 150/300 w/$25 ant

So according to ICMIZER giving villain a range of 44+,A2+,K9s,KTo+,QTs,QTo,JTs you can profitably shove according to $ev a range of 99+,A9s+,ATo+ and AKs is +1.11% ev basically meaning that over the long run you will be winning this percentage of the prize pool against this certain villain by shoving this hand.

Really appreciate that. Looks like I played right just with a bad result. It is hard knowing that the tourney could be ITM any moment but the goal is 1st not 3rd

Exactly! This is it. It would probably be a fold in a DON (not sure) where it´s enought to get ITM, but not in a SnG.

I'm folding almost everything here. The shorty has less than 3bb and will be back in the blinds in 2 hands. Busting in this spot is terrible. If the other 3k stack was in the BB I would be much more likely to shove because he should be folding like 98% there but bigstacks can be unpredictable.

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Shove with a "super short" stack.

ICMizer calculations are assuming your opponents are all equally as good at poker as you are. If that is true, then follow the solver. If you believe you have good skill edge and your opponents are likely to screw up later in the STT, then you can make an exploit fold.

That said, I fold .

not sure I follow this.

ICMIZER/HRC calculates pure ICM equity of a particular situation at that one moment in time.

eg: calculates your equity changes before and after you are shoved into BVB based on ICM. You then get a net result showing you if something has a positive or negative result based on range v range. Individual skill is not a variable considered in the calculations.

You can of course choose to "ignore" or deviate from said results and skill edge might be one of these reasons. That being said, you imply that ICM programs should/could only used if everyone has equal skill. This of course is not true.

the only one you are exploiting folding this is yourself

In order to make those calculations the program must make assumptions about opponent ranges. That's why you can adjust the ranges when you play around with the calculations. There will be some moves that are unexploitable because they will be +ev no matter what variables you input, but most calculations will depend on villain playing a certain way.

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I have literally no idea why you are telling me this.

Once again I would like to reiterate a few things:

OP can find the answer he is looking for using the programmes mentioned.

OP is within his rights to use "answer" as a suggestion if he chooses.

Nothing about this hand suggests that we are talking about a situation where deviating from ICM will drastically increase our tournament equity.

Programmes mentioned ARE NOT only to be used in the (unrealistic) situation where all players have identical skill level.

Gl all.

I believe I am the reason for discord itt. Solidthought has pointed out that the tool uses whatever ranges you provide, and then gives you an ICM analysis of your options based on the ranges you provide.

As such, my statement is incorrect, that the tool assumes anything about the equality of skill among the players.

Won’t be the last overly simplified and incorrect statement I ever make, unfortunately.

But, I am willing to learn and admit my mistake.

Thank you Solidthought.

Not to worry robert_utk! This is probably one of the most humble messages ive ever seen on 2p2 haha. Im impressed 2p2 i had given up hope lol

I can’t imagine folding AKs bvb in an unopened pot. I am shoving tight, as indicated by range of ATo+. Calling off all your chips with this stack distribution would be horrible, but I would think software will account for this... suspecting it will give you a range of QQ+.