Hi
For quite some time now, by default ICMIZER chooses the good FGS depth setting for SNG Coach which depends on the number of players at the table.
This hand was calculated with FGS 3, so we are looking 3 hands ahead letting the blinds make the full circle.
We get this result with Future Game Simulations (depth 3):
The fun thing is that in this particular spot FGS with depth 3+ doesn't drive us too far away from ICM:
ICM is not an intuitive thing, it has to be learned.
And we are on the bubble and the 9 max SNG bubble is pretty strict.
So yes folding trash hands is the right play mathematically.
Quote:
simulating 1 future hand then you will find this is a call with 95-100% of hands.
Simulating 1 hand ahead when we are playing 4-way is not the recommended number. I recommend to take at least full circle if possible, so the depth should be N players - 1, which for 4 players is 3. If we just look 1 hand ahead all we see is that we post SB, which isn't great. As we look at the hands where we get to the Button or CO things become to look better, and fold becomes a better alternative again.
To give you an idea why folding is not that bad with trash hands lets look just 1 hand ahead and look at the worst hands of the next 3 for us, where we are on SB:
As you can see, both CO and BTN should be pushing quite some hands if they are good, and the player on the BB has a chance to call them.
If such confrontation happens, our stack gets us ITM with nice probability.
If it's folded to us, we push and stay alive with 50% probability.
If we win, next 2 hands are quite good for us with the other short stack being pressured on the BB.
FGS 3 sees that all (unlike FGS1) and that is why our range again becomes tighter if we are using other FGS depth values than 1.
Last edited by Q; 05-31-2018 at 10:59 PM.