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Folding AA 30bb vs Tight Player

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01-21-2019 , 07:27 AM

dales99

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 136

-We have AA on drawy board. Villain is tight and shoves turn.
-In general, how are we proceeding. If villain raises flop, probably more draw heavy, with JT and diamonds. But when he raises turn, always KQ, or set?

PokerStars $11 - 100/200 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 9 players

Hero (UTG): 5,876
UTG+1: 7,890
MP: 6,325
MP+1: 4,735
MP+2: 5,206 (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 60)
CO: 10,193
BTN: 3,216
SB: 9,065
BB: 5,911

9 players post ante of 25, SB posts SB 100, BB posts BB 200

Pre Flop: (pot: 525) Hero has A

Hero raises to 400, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 400, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (1,325, 2 players) 2

Hero bets 663, MP+2 calls 663

Turn: (2,651, 2 players) 6

Hero bets 1,326, MP+2 raises to 4,118 and is all-in, Hero calls 2,792

River: (10,887, 2 players) 3

Spoiler:

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01-21-2019 , 08:36 AM

jjpregler

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974

No. Call.

1) While tightish, his stats are closer to standard than nit. 18/15 are about avg good stats. So we can surmise he is about 10% tighter than standard. Nit stats are both 10 and under. If the average player is a 5 or 6 out of 10, he would be about a 4.

2) Not enough of a sample size to make a hero fold.

3) If I had to guess, I would say he is 70% chance a TAG/ 25% chance a REG and maybe just a 5% chance he is a LAG with a bad run of cards. You have enough of a sample size to start shading him in one direction, but not enough to nail him down a TAG. I would say I would need to be about 90% sure before I consider hero folding here.

Last edited by jjpregler; 01-21-2019 at 08:44 AM.

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01-21-2019 , 10:16 AM

xVeritas

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 137

after you pot in 40% of your stack i think you are kinda pot committed after the turn bet.
a lot of draws miss on the turn; with QQ and KK he would reraise preflop and if he hit a set with 22 he might have reraised the draw heavy flop already.

KQ and 66 are the only Hands you are behind (i doubt a tight Player would call with K6s, Q6s, ... from MP2 with less than 30b behind).

therefor i would call it too. you have at least some Outs vs KQ and are a heavy favourite vs draws or any pair

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01-21-2019 , 10:57 AM

Pouled

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 476

Never folding, more unblocking the 2 nut flush draws

Sample size is not enough to say he is "tight player". And more with 60 hands on 25/50, 50/100 levels...

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