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Originally Posted by Tim64
You're right, of course, that we're concerned with the potsize after villain bets. My point was that in cases where villain makes a 'normal' 2/5-2/3 cbet size, the pot will be bigger and therefore worth winning immediately. Thus x/shoving (if we assume the same amount of feq) will make more money when villain bets bigger on the flop.
Of course. But even with that small bet the pot represents more than 33% of your starting stack. That's a pretty big pot to win in an STT 3-handed.
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We'd normally think of chasing draws as being where we face a largish bet. Here, getting over 5:1 aren't we rather simply realizing our equity vs his overall range?
This isn't a cash game. In fact STTs are pretty much the opposite end of the spectrum from cash games because of the shallow stacks and unique ICM considerations. Even though you're getting great odds with his small bet on the flop you have to think ahead to the likely action on the next streets. If I call here, what happens if I miss on the turn and he bets bigger? What if my flush hits and he just x/folds to my bets? STTs are all about preserving chips and using those chips as weapons in the right spots: maximizing fold equity with shoves, getting full value with strong hands, etc. You simply can't afford to waste chips drawing and folding.
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Anyway, hypothetically if you did get to the turn by flatting flop what would you then?
I would just shove the turn. A call means you would have committed almost 40% of your stack only to fold the river when you miss. That's STT suicide. You're ITM already so the bubble factor doesn't apply and you have 13 outs to a likely winning hand. Just get your chips in.
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