Hero's reads on button:

"btn is a fish 51/44 btn steal of 82"

Grateful for your thoughts, including reasons for what line you'd take.

Thanks

You're starting the hand with about 18bb so if you're going to defend with that hand and flop a FD+backdoor SD, you have to go with it. Villain is aggressive so he'll have lots of non-Ax hands in his range. So I would x/shove the flop.

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Makes sense although risk/reward is not great when villain only bets 1bb otf. As played what do you think about the turn?

Thanks

The reward has nothing to do with villain's bet size on the flop, it has to do with the size of the pot and the potential to increase your stack by a large % if he folds with good outs to double up if he calls.

As played I wouldn't get to the turn. You can't afford to be chasing draws and folding with that stack size.

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You're right, of course, that we're concerned with the potsize after villain bets. My point was that in cases where villain makes a 'normal' 2/5-2/3 cbet size, the pot will be bigger and therefore worth winning immediately. Thus x/shoving (if we assume the same amount of feq) will make more money when villain bets bigger on the flop.

We'd normally think of chasing draws as being where we face a largish bet. Here, getting over 5:1 aren't we rather simply realizing our equity vs his overall range?

Anyway, hypothetically if you did get to the turn by flatting flop what would you then do?

Thanks again.

Of course. But even with that small bet the pot represents more than 33% of your starting stack. That's a pretty big pot to win in an STT 3-handed.

This isn't a cash game. In fact STTs are pretty much the opposite end of the spectrum from cash games because of the shallow stacks and unique ICM considerations. Even though you're getting great odds with his small bet on the flop you have to think ahead to the likely action on the next streets. If I call here, what happens if I miss on the turn and he bets bigger? What if my flush hits and he just x/folds to my bets? STTs are all about preserving chips and using those chips as weapons in the right spots: maximizing fold equity with shoves, getting full value with strong hands, etc. You simply can't afford to waste chips drawing and folding.

I would just shove the turn. A call means you would have committed almost 40% of your stack only to fold the river when you miss. That's STT suicide. You're ITM already so the bubble factor doesn't apply and you have 13 outs to a likely winning hand. Just get your chips in.


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Agreed with point 1. I think x/s flop vs this light of a stealer is indeed +EV but I actually like exploiting the small cbet by flatting more. We still have all options open to us on the turn and no reason to assume villain will bet again or bet big. He might check back for all we know.

Yep, understand the differences btw sngs and cash (been coaching SNGs for 5 years+). As you point out, however, now we're ITM, so those differences lessen.

I agree on the turn: if we get here by flatting flop, x/s is my preferred line.

Hand was one of my students'. There was a lot of discussion about the turn and so I'm grateful for your input.

Cheers,
Tim

I don’t play 9 mans so I could be wrong, but shoving pre vs this btn steal range is surely printing.

Possibly but you're risking 18bb to pick up a small pot. Facing the minraise with a suited hand I'd rather defend and see a flop.

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I guess I would prefer to err on the side of aggression and go for the flop semi-bluff than play it passively. Sure he could check behind on the turn but then if hero hits on the river, he's not likely getting any action from villain. So the implied odds are pretty low. The flop is where hero has the most equity in the hand, plus some decent fold equity, so it's a good spot to shove it in.

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I would jam pre if I knew he was capable of folding at all, obviously just flatting if he made any suspect calls.

I don't mind just calling flop, can bluff river if he checks turn. I think x/jam is going to be better vs this opponent since he has almost every hand pre and when he min bets this texture it's safe to assume his strongest combos are drastically reduced.

Turn I guess is standard to x/jam but really only vs this type of guy since he can potentially have 92o.

Thanks, sippin.

FWIW - ICMizer says this is not a shove preflop. I've got the hand on a Nash Equilibrium, so if he's folding to 3-bets a lot, it might put the hand in the profitable shove category.

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