http://icmpoker.com/screenshot/Qpnjbv/


Any thoughts on this one? It's not that I don't understand the spot as much as it would help my thought process in general if I heard your opinions as well. I had KJs in the hand and ended up folding. I figured my best bet is to try and fold myself in the money.

Fold? Call? Completely player dependent (based upon the ICM mistakes you saw villains make)?

Oh and what's with the weird calling hands? I'm guessing it's because button should (according to nash) call only with AA/KK, so the hands that have the most equity are ones that aren't dominated. Is this correct?


Edit: Well so much for my observation skills. I had him covered obviously. Still interested in comments.

Edit 2: If he had me covered the only hand I could call with would be AA. Massive difference.

You can't fold into the money here. Including the antes you're all in on the next hand - That's why the computer has you calling 57% even though it thinks BU's range is AA KK (it isn't btw). If CO wins you get 3rd as you have the deeper stack. If BU wins but you still beat CO then you're in the same position as if you folded - all in on the next hand so you're not risking so much with the overcall as it first appears. Of the six possible orderings of hand strength it's only BU > CO > Hero that really messes you up.

Again this is a "tactics" spot so try to look a bit deeper.
FGS3 is one full orbit of hands which most people say is ideal and that has you calling 48.7%.
FGS4 looks as far ahead as when you get back to the BB and is the latest the bubble is likely to last (if you fold this then win your forced flip in the SB you're all in again when you get back to the BB). People say it's "not fair" to do two hands where you're in the BB but the spot as a whole isn't fair. You call 65.6%
FGS5 68.9%

+1

You must call for sure. You cover the biggest short stack here, that's very important and change your range so much (if you don't cover him you must be very tight).
You also have very few to lose, so if you combine these two factors you can see, that you should call very loose range even against super tight BU range. They will call looser btw, so you can call even looser.