I believe I didn't play this too well, just looking for advice on how to improve. The situation is that I had a very healthy stack and looking to increase it, could have coasted into the money easily in this low-stakes tournament. No specific reads, but these are not good players. The two consecutive hands I went out on:
Showdown:
SB shows T♠ A♦ (a straight, Ten to Ace) (Equity - Pre-Flop: 59%, Flop: 84%, Turn: 13%, River: 100%)
BB (Hero) shows 7♥ 8♥ (a straight, Nine to King) (Equity - Pre-Flop: 41%, Flop: 16%, Turn: 88%, River: 0%)
SB wins 80,893
My thinking:
Spoiler:
Preflop I was hoping to connect with the board since 78s plays well multiway. When the sb squeezed and I called, I thought the button would call too (since they're the button) and we would play multiway, I could see if I connect miraculously with the board. Maybe fishful thinking on my part and I should have folded to the squeeze? However, the button folded to the squeeze so it was heads-up to the flop.
On the flop after sb stopped their preflop aggression by just checking, I made a minbet since I saw that people were folding a lot to really minbets where they were getting excellent odds to call, so I thought I could get a fold without risking much in case sb didn't connect with the board. When sb reraised me I was thinking of folding but since my stack was so huge I thought I could risk a call specifically in case I see a nine on the turn - I thought I got good odds to catch my 9. Maybe this is fish logic on my part and I should have folded to their reraise on the flop?
When the 9 did come giving me the low end of the straight but then sb went all-in it looked like they have a king. I really thought about it. However, I carefully remembered their 3-bet squeeze pf and then check-raise on the flop, and I decided that they do not have any kings in their range: out of the king-x only ak would have 3-bet like that pf and if they had that they would have raised more on the flop. So in my mind I deduced that they don't have a king, and therefore don't have my straight beat, and after thinking a while I called. I thought they might have some sets especially 99 any of which I have crushed.
Obviously this call put me an 88% favorite, I thought there was a really good chance they might show a king (since that's what their all-in looked like) so I was really happy that in my view I had read them correctly, and they didn't have a king. But then obviously I was really unhappy to lose the pot to their four-outer, losing half my chips.
The very next hand I lost the remaining half of my stack:
I think the rest of the table also saw that I was a favorite on the turn so it kind of looked like I had a good pot taken away from me. The very next hand was:
honestly, I thought that they would think I'm really steaming since I just lost so much despite having 88% equity on the turn; so that is why I called. I thought that is why the LP player 3-bet all-in, hoping for a call from me while I'm steaming. So that is why I called with 99, normally I would have folded since under normal circumstances the 88 all-in reraise over utg's ai is very strong. As you can see this time I had 44% equity pre-flop which isn't so great but I had more equity in the side pot. So do you think I should have folded under this condition? I hadn't put any money into the pot yet and there was such strong action before me.
Psychologically since the effective stack was between me and the HJ it felt pretty bad to have their 88 win to my 99 (when I saw the hands, I thought maybe UTG would win the side pot but I could win the main pot.)
So, that's the last two hands I went out on, falling from a healthy stack where I could have easily coasted into the money.
What does the minbet on the flop accomplish? It bloats a pit you’ve got pretty bad equity in at that time. No flush draw and really 4 outs that aren’t even guaranteed outs. So many of Vs hands that are raising that flop have a king, even though he’s basically CBetting over the weird donk minbet.
What does the minbet on the flop accomplish? It bloats a pit you’ve got pretty bad equity in at that time. No flush draw and really 4 outs that aren’t even guaranteed outs. So many of Vs hands that are raising that flop have a king, even though he’s basically CBetting over the weird donk minbet.
Okay, thanks. Do you think my preflop call was okay or I should have folded the 78s?
It sounds like you're saying I should have checked back the flop after they checked. OK, makes sense.
(You asked the purpose of my minbet on the flop - I'm not saying it is correct but I made the minbet because I saw a lot of people at the table folding to minbets when they had air, despite having great odds to call the minbet, so since sb had shown aggression preflop but suddenly stopped betting on the flop like they were scared and whiffed, therefore even though I had nothing I thought I could get a fold in that situation sometimes if I minbet - i.e. I minbet for fold equity, since at the time I noticed they were folding when they had nothing, even when they had great odds to call. I'm not saying this is correct on my part it is just the behavior I observed. I guess I shouldn't do that!)
In the first hand, I would probably just fold pre. This type of hand would be okay if you were deeper stacked, or had position, but here the stack to pot ratio is going to be pretty low on the flop (especially if BTN calls) and you're sandwiched in between two players, so you'll often face all-ins by the turn and be unable to call your draws. I also think SB will typically be quite strong here - he can easily call mediocre hands, so the iso range is likely quite strong imo.
As played I'm just done on this flop. Smashes his range and we pretty much have nothing - even the gutshot is tainted and we can very easily be drawing dead. If you hit your miracle and then still want to fold, your call probably wasn't right.
Second hand seems fine, though it would be the bottom of my calling range. I don't think the fact you lost the previous hand has any effect though. You're not involved in the action anyway so won't be relevant. And I wouldn't try to assume these kinds of things anyway - honestly they probably didn't even see the hand.
In the first hand, I would probably just fold pre. This type of hand would be okay if you were deeper stacked, or had position, but here the stack to pot ratio is going to be pretty low on the flop (especially if BTN calls) and you're sandwiched in between two players, so you'll often face all-ins by the turn and be unable to call your draws. I also think SB will typically be quite strong here - he can easily call mediocre hands, so the iso range is likely quite strong imo.
As played I'm just done on this flop. Smashes his range and we pretty much have nothing - even the gutshot is tainted and we can very easily be drawing dead. If you hit your miracle and then still want to fold, your call probably wasn't right.
Second hand seems fine, though it would be the bottom of my calling range. I don't think the fact you lost the previous hand has any effect though. You're not involved in the action anyway so won't be relevant. And I wouldn't try to assume these kinds of things anyway - honestly they probably didn't even see the hand.
Yeah, I think this is all correct. Bolded in particular I want to highlight because you're not even in the hand yet, so nobody is thinking about you. And I want to highlight that in OP your reasoning is "I could see if I connect miraculously with the board," and you should not be putting in such a large percentage of the effective stack size (1/7 of the SB's stack, and more than 1/4 of the button's stack if he comes along) into the pot hoping for miracles.
I'll add to the minbet commentary-- not only do you need to figure out what purpose your bets serve, you need to think about your opponent's range. What hands is he 4xing from the small blind preflop that would also not catch any piece of this board and would give up to a minbet? I doubt he's slamming it here with something like A5s preflop (not impossible, but it seems like a bad play preflop that will inflate the pot OOP), and probably even if he did it with 66-77 he's not folding the flop for such a small bet.
The primary flops where you want to consider minbets are paired and monotone boards, or some other board textures that are fairly uncoordinated. We will be doing a lot of checking back on this particular texture as it hits our opponent's range pretty hard and stacks are relatively shallow. If we do bet, it'll mostly be small-to-medium (mostly 25-33% pot) with a polarized range of good top-pairs, pair + draw hands we're happy getting in and low equity bluffs. 87 probably doesn't fit into any of those categories, so it'd most likely be a hand we always check.
Also, do not be fooled by the SB's decision to check that flop, as SB should be checking a fair portion of the time.
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