Ciao,

Unfortunately played on a site that doesn't allow hand histories, so can't paste it in here and hand is probably not 100% accurate.

Blinds 20/40
All players have around 1400 - 1800 chips

HJ fold
CO fold
Hero raises to 88 w. A4
SB folds
BB calls


Flop: J82: (Pot = 188)
Check, check

Turn: J82: 5 (Pot = 188)
Bet 93 (50%PB), call

River: J82: 5 3 (pot = 356)
Bet 272 (69%PB), Hero?

(Pot = 900)
Hero has 1250 behind.

Villain perceives Hero to bet all flush draws on flop, even though Hero checks some a small percentage of the time. Hero perceives Villain to be a callhappy fish. Do we just call or do we shove with the A blocker - reducing the amount of flushes he has - to potentially get called by two pairs and sets?

Won't post results until some answers obv.

Cheers!

I'd say there's a reduction of 2 pair combos due to the cards on the board and the fact he increased his sizing % on the river. Also maybe 0 combos of 88 and JJ. If there was a chance he could have KJ here I definitely jam. If he supposes you have 0 flushes this river sizing with KJ becomes possible. I don't think it's a slam dunk either way but knowing he is a callhappy fish and will likely never fold 2p and possibly not fold KJ not getting value by shoving is sinful.

Thanks for the input, definitely fair point about his two pair combo's.

Why do you think Villain has zero combo's of 88 here? Due to his turn sizing, or because he should get 88+ in preflop for 35-45 blinds BB vs BU?

Villain could play KJo this way, but is probably too weak to valuebet that strong, even though it's pretty clear cut in my opinion.

Outcome of the hand:

More due to his preflop flat. To say 0 combos is perhaps a stretch on my part. I think he could take the sizings with 88 reasonably. I just think even a passive guy will put a bit of a 3bet here with 88 most of the time vs a btn open. It's not that I think he should just war 40BB every time I just expect it to be 3bet with a high frequency.