Would results from 100 9-handed $5 SNGs give any indication of future results?

No.

Yes.

Could you expand on your reply, please?

for example if your ROI is -40% over 100 games, then it is extremely unlikely that your EVROI is better than breakeven

i suggest you play around with pokerdope tournament variance calculator

How awful are these results? How does ROI look?

These are my results for 107 $5 SNGs ($4.60 + .40)

Total Buy-Ins $535
Profit $261.42
Loss $370.00
Cashes 33 (1st x 8, 2nd x 10, 3rd x 14, 4th (Bubbled) x15)
Non Cashes 74
Pays 3 Places
Results: -$108.58

Thank you very much.

CORRECTED RESULTS

These are my results for 107 $5 SNGs ($4.60 + .40)

Total Buy-Ins $535
Profit $261.42
Loss $370.00
Cashes 33 (1st x 9, 2nd x 10, 3rd x 14)
Bubbled (4th) 15 x
Non Cashes 74
Pays 3 Places
Results: -$108.58

Somebody once asked Doug Polk in chat about bubbling a tournament and he said he didn't have much experience in that. He was either long gone, or probably in the chip lead at that time.

If I could turn those fifteen 4th place finishes to ITM, my results would be so much better. I need to figure out why I'm so often in this position.

Thank you very much.

What you need to do is get real aggro. Check out my threads on 4 and 5 bet with shoving with air to gain the courage to courageously ship it in with napkins and put the fear of God into your opponent on the bubble and make that mofo fold.

I love this!!!

I'm a big Polk fan and I admire his fearlessness. Most of my cashes are due to this very thing, because I'm certainly not getting cards.

I will check out your threads in the morning, and really looking forward to them.

My bubble finishes are always due to my being the short stack in that position, and then it's kind of hard to scare anyone. Clearly, I need to get aggro when I have more chips.

Just how bad are my results right now?

Thank you, thank you, for your feedback.

Hey, I mean they are bad...

If you were breaking even or maybe making some profit ( Positive ROI ) would be a start , but these results show You should def analyze your game A to Z, Which is always good anyway.

I thought I would give some background of myself as a player. I've played live limit holdem and stud for decades. From $4/$8 to $10/$20. I propped on the Strip in three different hotels at different times for a total of just under 3 years. Started a few businesses and traded stocks and had no time for poker for over 10 years.

Transitioned to NL slowly, mostly online, but occasionally I'll play live $1/$2 or the wild limit $4/$8 at the Orleans. Less interested in live play now, and would like to find some success online. Low limit cash is not exciting, and I haven't done well in 50NL, but I like MTTs and SNGs.

Tonight's results:

$5 SNG: 1st x 1, 2nd x 1, 3rd x 1.

$1 SNG: 2nd X 2.

That's all I played today.

I made some adjustments. Unless I had a very strong hand, I wasn't looking to get involved pre-ante's. Previously, I've been running terrible. In live play, I'm used to flopping sets, two pair, winning the biggest pot of the night. If the poker room has a cracked aces promo, I'll get them five times and lose maybe three and get the bonus, and then win the other two outright. If there's a bonus for quads, I'll get them before I quit. High hand of the hour, yep, no problem.That's just how I tended to run through the years. Tonight I caught some cards at the river, connected with some flops, nobody caught a miracle on me. It was nice to run good again and get some bluffs through as well.

I have a nice poker library and realized today I had Moshman's Sit 'N Go Strategy. This is from 2007 and I wonder if still viable.

Appreciate all feedback.

Calculation for ROI%:

([Profit/Loss] divided by [Total Buy-In]) * 100 = ROI%

In your case:

(-108,58/535)*100 = -20,3 %

Also clapclap is wrong. Statistically speaking he is correct, if we were to bet on players with -20% or -40% over 100 games, surely betting on them being losers is massively +EV. No questions asked. But even the best players have sick loosing streaks over 100 games.

Even if you take EV numbers, you still dont take enough factors into account to make a qualified judgement on actual numbers in individual cases.

Thank you for the ROI calculation. I've been doing it wrong. With yesterdays results added, I am now at -14.9%.

SNGs are still new to me and I am watching those that cash most often, reading, experimenting, and always looking to learn. I think I can master this. I was a stud player for years while propping at the Riviera, and one night came into work and noticed a $1 TO $4 holdem table, and wanted to quit. But instead, I learned the game. In those days, you could walk on your blind and not have to make it up!

I'm not looking to make excuses for my results. I know I have things to learn, just as I know I have been running very bad.

I entered your data into a SNG analysis program I wrote: Here are the results

SnG Results Summary

For the Sit'n'Go structure entered - the following results were obtained:

With relative placing of 27.3%, 30.3% and 42.4% and a ROI of -20.2%,
you will finish in the money 30.9% of the time.

Placing distribution is First: 8.4% Second: 9.4% Third: 13.1%

For 100 tournaments, you expect to win -$100.93.

Average profit per tournament is -$1.01 with a std. dev. of 6.60

The 80.0% confidence interval for total winnings over 100 tournaments
is (-$186 to -$16), equivalent to a 90.0% one sided lower limit of -$186

If you started with $200 and played 500 tourneys, bankrupt probability = 99.00%

Cool, can I download your program from anywhere?

Being new to a game is pretty good excuse.

No, 100 games should be close your daily volume. About 2000 tells how you compare to the field. Some soft and others rough, you should build a sample not make comclusions from small fragments. See a variamce calculator.

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