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Old 10-01-2009, 02:30 AM   #1
nerdking
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Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

villain is a fellow oregonian and MMTer. He's 15/11/2.3 over 6100 hands in my db. I give the guy huge amounts of props and respect. He's one of the few people I hate to be within two seats of because he's going to make me work. That said, onto the hand.

notes on villain: won't cap AKo oop; OL UTG CR KJ9 twotone flop; 3bet AQo MP; won't fold any piece HU; will go for thin value on the river; donked river nut flush; called CR on flop raised TT on J995 twotone turn

special note: this is a HU pot and we're both good players so we will both be going for thin value

Poker Stars $2/$4 Limit Hold'em - 10 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with Q A
7 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) Q 2 T (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls

Turn: (4.25 BB) J (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls

River: (6.25 BB) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

preflop and flop play themselves. Turn I was a bit wtf so I called although I think an argument can be made for raising here (although puke wtf if we get 3bet there), river is the utter embodiment of range polarization on villain's part and I'd love to know what people think about that spot...
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Old 10-01-2009, 03:29 AM   #2
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

That's a hand all right. Very WTF donkbet.

So much depends on how he defends, I can't imagine figuring out a decent range without knowing fold bb to steal and resteal from bb, and it's hard to guess with a 15/11. I guess by default I check cause I want to see his hand, and it's close.
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Old 10-01-2009, 03:32 AM   #3
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

I think 98 or XXss are going to be seen more often than you get a call from JT or AJ or KQ or KJ or KT or AT something like that (most of these would 3b preflop too). If you bet it's a bluff and I don't think he folds a low spade.
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Old 10-01-2009, 03:42 AM   #4
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

villain folds bb to steal 42 percent btw

I've got an ATS of 53 percent, I was playing TAGish here.

Last edited by nerdking; 10-01-2009 at 03:53 AM.
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Old 10-01-2009, 04:25 AM   #5
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

I would check behind although I am not convinced he holds the flush. If he holds a flush I would put him on a small suited connector hand, because he checked the river but was aggressive on the flop and the turn.

I think you will be called by winning hands only, therefore I see no value in raising.
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Old 10-01-2009, 05:14 AM   #6
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

what combos of hands containing 3-9 does he conceivably have here if he does have the flush and how does his postflop action back this up? Also, I'd encourage a stoving of our river equity. I ran something and it was definitely close.
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Old 10-01-2009, 05:24 AM   #7
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

hes gotta have like KQo no s always here but im not even sure he calls with it so just check behind
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Old 10-01-2009, 08:19 AM   #8
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

it's bvb and villain won't fold any pair vs me as I mentioned in my notes. Again, I ask for a balanced range of what calls us and beats us vs what calls us and we beat, then run stove. Eliminate the top of villain's range because he didn't 3bet us pre and eliminate Ks and As from villain's range because he didn't bet the river.
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Old 10-01-2009, 08:34 AM   #9
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

the chance of you getting c/r here is decent imo
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Old 10-01-2009, 08:40 AM   #10
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

Quote:
Originally Posted by nerdking View Post
it's bvb and villain won't fold any pair vs me as I mentioned in my notes. Again, I ask for a balanced range of what calls us and beats us vs what calls us and we beat, then run stove. Eliminate the top of villain's range because he didn't 3bet us pre and eliminate Ks and As from villain's range because he didn't bet the river.
Is he calling a Tx no spade with four to the flush on the board?
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Old 10-01-2009, 08:47 AM   #11
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

i just b/f the river ( i guarantee you'd have called if he bet)

he never raises less than the nutflush and you still have TRIPS! i want to SD AND get value outta them.

if he has the balls to c/r less on this super scary board? good for him and nh sir!

edit: he doesn't have a pair+flush draw or a made str when he donks the turn else he would c/r

Last edited by VDownSwingV; 10-01-2009 at 09:12 AM. Reason: not the stove you were asking for
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Old 10-01-2009, 08:49 AM   #12
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

Quote:
Originally Posted by ottsville View Post
Is he calling a Tx no spade with four to the flush on the board?
to repeat

Quote:
Originally Posted by nerdking
notes on villain: won't cap AKo oop; OL UTG CR KJ9 twotone flop; 3bet AQo MP; won't fold any piece HU; will go for thin value on the river; donked river nut flush; called CR on flop raised TT on J995 twotone turn

special note: this is a HU pot and we're both good players so we will both be going for thin value
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Old 10-01-2009, 08:53 AM   #13
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bulletproof Monk View Post
the chance of you getting c/r here is decent imo
I was going to include that in my above statement. Does he think we are agg enough to bet a decent hand w/o spade or a weak spade?

My first instinct is to check behind. I want to show down and two going in on the river is bad for us. I don't think we can find enough value in a bet here either. His worst hand that could call would be two pair and anything else he calls with beats us.

Edit: if he will certainly go for thin value I think we get led into with Qx hands and weaker flushes and cr'ed by Ksx or Asx and FH hands. Your notes say he donked rvr'ed NF, but if he's a thinking player and knows you are, you have to consider that he varies his play especially against you.

Last edited by ottsville; 10-01-2009 at 09:00 AM.
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Old 10-01-2009, 08:57 AM   #14
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

what about AT/AJ no spade, KQ no spade. and if I'm betting this river I'm folding to a checkraise like THAT.
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Old 10-01-2009, 09:44 AM   #15
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

the turn donk by villain is bad if you're rarely checking behind with TP.

turn raise isn't good given board texture.

and I would check behind river given the donk on one of the worts turn cards in the deck...
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Old 10-01-2009, 09:46 AM   #16
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

On the flop I dont get his donk, you are going to be betting this flop 100% of the time. I would expect him to check raise a Q or a flush draw, maybe even a T. Is a donk HU a more aggressive move?

You say this guy is a good player, but a double donk seems fairly fishy to me( again, my HU sucks so maybe this is standard). against a fish I call down, I think I do the same here. He is repping strength on a v. scarey board, I want to go to showdown, his check on the river smells of a fancy play with a monster, or a flush that got scared of a FH, your raise on the flop indicating you have at least top pair. Maybe this lose least win least line is why my winrate is so low :P
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Old 10-01-2009, 10:21 AM   #17
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

Quote:
Originally Posted by nerdking View Post
villain folds bb to steal 42 percent btw

I've got an ATS of 53 percent, I was playing TAGish here.
I started the Stove w/top 55%, then removed 88+, AJs+, AQo+ (no 3! pre)

Quote:
Originally Posted by nerdking View Post
what combos of hands containing 3-9 does he conceivably have here if he does have the flush and how does his postflop action back this up? Also, I'd encourage a stoving of our river equity. I ran something and it was definitely close.
Quote:
notes on villain: won't cap AKo oop; OL UTG CR KJ9 twotone flop; 3bet AQo MP; won't fold any piece HU; will go for thin value on the river; donked river nut flush; called CR on flop raised TT on J995 twotone turn
I removed all Ax and Kx as they are prolly donking the River, I left in ATx for the river c/r.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nerdking View Post
it's bvb and villain won't fold any pair vs me as I mentioned in my notes. Again, I ask for a balanced range of what calls us and beats us vs what calls us and we beat, then run stove. Eliminate the top of villain's range because he didn't 3bet us pre and eliminate Ks and As from villain's range because he didn't bet the river.
left in any pairs+, but removed 22, QT (not enough flop action). I assumed he is not Donking GSSD on the flop, but all OESD's and FD's, Tx and Qx. Double Donk usually means "I improved on the turn", but sometimes Means "I think I still have the best hand 'cause that card didn't help you either". My best guess 'stove was pretty surprising:

Board: Qc 2s Ts Js Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.739% 61.74% 00.00% 71 0.00 { AhQd }
Hand 1: 38.261% 38.26% 00.00% 44 0.00 { ATs, KhQh, KJs-KTs, QJs, Q9s-Q3s, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 9s7s, 9s6s, 9s5s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 8s5s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, KcQh, KdQh, KcJd, KcJh, KdJc, KdJh, KhJc, KhJd, KcTd, KcTh, KdTc, KdTh, KhTc, KhTd, QJo, Q9o-Q6o, J9o+, T8o+, 98o }

I think a c/r here is Nut Flush+ so bet/fold, but its almost b/c (for info)


Throw in Kx

Board: Qc 2s Ts Js Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.197% 58.20% 00.00% 71 0.00 { AhQd }
Hand 1: 41.803% 41.80% 00.00% 51 0.00 { ATs, KhQh, KJs-KTs, QJs, Q9s-Q3s, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 9s7s, 9s6s, 9s5s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 8s5s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, KTo+, QJo, Q9o-Q6o, J9o+, T8o+, 98o }

Still bet/fold
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Old 10-01-2009, 10:31 AM   #18
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

Quote:
Originally Posted by nerdking View Post
villain is a fellow oregonian and MMTer. He's 15/11/2.3 over 6100 hands in my db. I give the guy huge amounts of props and respect. He's one of the few people I hate to be within two seats of because he's going to make me work. That said, onto the hand.

notes on villain: won't cap AKo oop; OL UTG CR KJ9 twotone flop; 3bet AQo MP; won't fold any piece HU; will go for thin value on the river; donked river nut flush; called CR on flop raised TT on J995 twotone turn

special note: this is a HU pot and we're both good players so we will both be going for thin value

I think you should re-evaluate your "respect" for this guy, based on your notes and his play in this hand. Don't get psyched out by this guy.
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Old 10-01-2009, 10:33 AM   #19
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

4-flush paired board, and you're trying to make us believe that he thinks you're a big enough 'tard when you bet the river that he's calling with Tx no-spade in what is a not-very-big pot?

C'mon.

When he donks the turn, he's got QJ/QT/JT or two spades nearly all the time...the only portion of that you get value out of is JT if you bet. The rest of the time he's got AT/KT but that won't call a bet on the river.

Really, tho, all those hands should be in his 3-bet defense range, right? So, that leaves 2 spades afraid you're holding a lone bigger spade, but he's not folding so you're betting your trips into a bovious frush. Just check.

Edit: duff's 'stove pointed out that I'd left out KJ and KQ, but I think we have to discount those somewhat because he donked the flop. As TAGgro as this guy looks, and apparently thinks Hero is, a lot of the hands we're thinking he might have he's going to c/r on that flop not donk.

Seriously, when you combine the read with the action the only thing you have left is a non-nut flush that's not folding.

Last edited by bozlax; 10-01-2009 at 10:38 AM.
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Old 10-01-2009, 10:52 AM   #20
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duff86 View Post


left in any pairs+, but removed 22, QT (not enough flop action). I assumed he is not Donking GSSD on the flop, but all OESD's and FD's, Tx and Qx. Double Donk usually means "I improved on the turn", but sometimes Means "I think I still have the best hand 'cause that card didn't help you either".
J is maybe the worst card to donk if u think your opponent was raising with a draw on the flop...
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Old 10-01-2009, 10:58 AM   #21
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

Quote:
Originally Posted by dragon1893 View Post
J is maybe the worst card to donk if u think your opponent was raising with a draw on the flop...
apart from Nicolas Cage's hair being a bird, your argument is invalid due to board texture by the river. And Boz? Less self righteous bluster, more RANGE OF HANDS AND EV CALCULATION.
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Old 10-01-2009, 11:03 AM   #22
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

Quote:
Originally Posted by nerdking View Post
apart from Nicolas Cage's hair being a bird, your argument is invalid due to board texture by the river. And Boz? Less self righteous bluster, more RANGE OF HANDS AND EV CALCULATION.
what I'm saying is that I don't agree with a range that includes T9s for example and many other hands. Is this guy really going to donk the flop with T9s and donk one of the worst turn cards in the deck with T9s?

What is villain trying to accomplish rather than rarely getting you to fold a hand on the turn and in worst case getting raised?
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Old 10-01-2009, 11:16 AM   #23
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

I think this guy is either on one pair trying to scare you out by ******ed play or hes got a FH. Personally I would just check. If the value is very close and you assume this situation (against this kind of donking) is going to happen rarely I think you will lose more by betting. I think he has you beat the majority of the time on this river, but hes unsure about his hand and hence the river check.
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Old 10-01-2009, 11:21 AM   #24
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

Quote:
Originally Posted by bozlax View Post
4-flush paired board, and you're trying to make us believe that he thinks you're a big enough 'tard when you bet the river that he's calling with Tx no-spade in what is a not-very-big pot?

C'mon.

When he donks the turn, he's got QJ/QT/JT or two spades nearly all the time...the only portion of that you get value out of is JT if you bet. The rest of the time he's got AT/KT but that won't call a bet on the river.

Really, tho, all those hands should be in his 3-bet defense range, right? So, that leaves 2 spades afraid you're holding a lone bigger spade, but he's not folding so you're betting your trips into a bovious frush. Just check.

Edit: duff's 'stove pointed out that I'd left out KJ and KQ, but I think we have to discount those somewhat because he donked the flop. As TAGgro as this guy looks, and apparently thinks Hero is, a lot of the hands we're thinking he might have he's going to c/r on that flop not donk.

Seriously, when you combine the read with the action the only thing you have left is a non-nut flush that's not folding.
I'm with Boz... sorry I cbf to support it more, but my initial read was a smallish flush as well.
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Old 10-01-2009, 11:30 AM   #25
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Re: Alright kids, here's something to bake your noodle...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duff86 View Post
I think you should re-evaluate your "respect" for this guy, based on your notes and his play in this hand. Don't get psyched out by this guy.
Thinking more about it while driving the kids to school, I have to agree with Duff, here. Seems to me like this guy's in your head for some reason, because neither his stats, your notes, nor his play in this hand make me think he's anything to be particularly worried about. I'd call him a showdown-bound spastag.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nerdking View Post
And Boz? Less self righteous bluster, more RANGE OF HANDS AND EV CALCULATION.
Range of hands: two small spades
EV (bet) = -1 (he's never raising and you're never winning)
EV (check) = 0

[x] bluster itt
[ ] it's all me

ETA: here's a 'stove I just ran; I edited in "any two spades" to get rid of the long rendition of two-spade hands:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

78 games 0.005 secs 15,600 games/sec

Board: Qs Qc Js Ts 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.205% 76.92% 01.28% 60 1.00 { any two spades, AQo+, KQo, Q2o+ }
Hand 1: 21.795% 20.51% 01.28% 16 1.00 { AhQd }

Anything else we add in, like 98, is going to make it worse not better, IF HE DOESN'T FOLD TO YOUR BET.

Last edited by bozlax; 10-01-2009 at 11:38 AM.
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