LoL,

The claim is that he can tell the slope of roofs he works on, so he should have the ability to assess the slopes in whatever ways he normally does. Visually, standing on them, etc.

And here are some important parameters he's stated:



So, +/- 2 degrees, range of 10-35.

4 minute minimum is silly, of course there's no reason for that.


Cool, should be able to knock out some reasonable terms pretty quickly then!

4 min minimum is so ******ed it feels like a misdirection. LoL not looking very confident trying to hit the pussy from an angle like that.

Im also interested in the reason for demanding each sample to take a minimum of 5 hours

think this is at least showing more promise than most oot prop bets

Good luck on that one, pal. I noticed it in the original post but withheld fire.

Where physically is this prop bet going to take place?

+/= 2 degrees is a pretty big swing, lots of margin for error. Hell, I could probably do that 65 out of 75 times with just a little practice. I'd recommend doing it at 1 or 1.5 and set the bet at two sets of 40 out of 50 where best set counts.

Sorry folks, but I drew up terms based on the above, so I was very generous with the 65/75 efforts (I thought). At $40hr you should be happy about the 4 minute delay - say you nail 70/75 and 65/65, that's $360 additional cheddar coming.

+/- 2 degrees on 10-35? That's a five spot on 25.

I don't know what the reference is, but it's pretty funny sounding.

LoL,

Let's work it out at 1.5 degrees.

And let's stop talking about this silly 4 minute thing that is completely irrelevant to the bet.

do you plan on spraying him with a hose for 4 minutes at a time?

So under LoL's conditions, micro stands on a slope for about 5 secs and guesses the degree of slope, then waits there for another 3:55 for what reason?

Is LoL going to have micro stand in traffic or something?

Also, I suggest a stipulation in favor of LoL.

micro guesses the slope, then his measurement instrument is used to determine the actual slope, but micro does not know the result of the measurements until the end. If he was given immediate feedback on how close his guesses are, he may be able to calibrate himself within the margin of error.

It's so that the sniper assassin he's hired to nullify the bet's terms can properly line up his shot.

At times I would want to milk the $40/hr, but it's been busy lately.

I totally don't understand the four-minute minimum, which on its face appears to be totally absurd. It does appear to me that LoL is deliberately ducking any explanation of the issue, too -- which makes me a little suspicious about it.

Maybe by having a 12 hour maximum and 4 min minimum and 75 unique slopes he is creating an impossible obstacle course for micro.

HT, Larry:

It's irrelevant, because we're not going to have any dumb stipulations like that unless there's a specific reason they help prove the core claim being wagered on.

LOL is just trying to complicate the bet to throw out even more distraction to what started this all - his absurd statement that he sprints up 100% slopes.

Who doesn't sprint up 100% slopes iyo?
Seems pretty common

Tigerfistpump.gif

Me:

"Here are some reasonable guidelines based on a guy who thinks he's better than 1:1 on +/- 1."

ED:

"Looks good pretty good, but let's increase the margin of error by 100%, remove 45% of the slopes and gift us some money tbab style, kthx!"

Me:

"I guess it's back to the drawing board..."

Micro:

"not sure I'd do 1, but would do 2, would have to be within a range of like 10-35"

You:

"0-45° slopes
+/- 1.0°"

I'm not saying those details are minor at all, but if the 4 minute thing isn't insta-withdrawn, wtf? No good faith.

As much as I like a *little* attention, I'm not looking to be the next tbab.

LoL, you basically offered the bet at 1 degree with no comment on angle. I basically offered at 2 degrees between 10 and 35. The not-looking-at-the-slope stipulation is also wtf. Any mechanism that is practical, reliable, and ensures fairness and accuracy essentially must be acceptable to you.

I'm not prepared to agree to less than the 2 degrees and 10-35 for betting my own money, but I'll think about it. If I'm just doing it as your employee, $40/hr + expenses is sufficient only if I really have the free time. Eventually, I will have the time.

Any negotiations pretty obviously need to take place from that starting point.

I suspect you won't budge off the 1 degree margin. If that's the case, there's really nothing to talk about until I decide if I think I can bet on being that accurate.

LOL why are you constantly ignoring the 4 minute thing? its clear that everything else is irrelevant since there is no bet without eliminating that useless part

Dk,

Here's where we are:

Lol makes a wildly inaccurate estimate of the slope he's running.

Micro shows up and says he can estimate to within about a degree.

LOL says it is not close, there's no way he can estimate slope to within a degree and he'll bet up to $10k on that.

Now we just need to agree on a reasonable range that's an even money bet when there's no way he can get one degree.

My suggestion is two degrees, so now we can discuss either adjusting the margin of error or the odds.

LOL realizing a $10k bet can easily happen here, negotiates to get that locked down. Oh wait, no, he keeps harping on some stupid 4 minute minimum thing that has nothing to do with the bet at all.