I would guess that people are more likely to live together before marriage who are poor so that probably explains some of that number

Ahh ok, probably need to control for college grads again b/c I can't see how 2 well-adjusted people wouldn't benefit from a trial run living together before deciding on marriage.

people are much different during dates where you meet a few days a week vs living with someone. i can't imagine jumping into marriage without seeing how that works at least for a little bit.

Great Oreo delivers again. 78% success rate is pretty good.

Shocking.

Additional confounders of the "did not cohabit" category, pushing its survival rate up, might include religious and arranged marriages. If the survey were international, I imagine it might also include marriages before which the groom pays an extravagant sum of goats.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the stats will show that paying at least 50 goats leads to an extremely low divorce rate. Perhaps even 0.

Or give self fulfilling predictions about how bad everything is going to be.

Like someone posted in this thread somewhere, these sorts of things *can* be worked out in small, uncontentious discussions.

Let's take any super common scenario like two people agreeing to alternate treating each other but one person makes more than the other.

Reasonable person #1: "I really value the time we spend together but the places we go are stretching my money. Can we agree to go someplace cheaper?"

Reasonable person #2: "I'm so sorry, I didn't realize this was such a burden. I definitely want to keep doing this so let's agree on something that works for us both."

2p2er: "You agreed to go someplace and now they're backing out? Red flag! Dump that gold digging broke ass *****! Also she's cheating on you! Also pics."

Can anyone provide a link or a brief explanation for how studies like this take what are presumably historical results and derive a probability of future occurrence from them?

you can find the Statistical Analysis methodology starting on page 3 of this pdf of the study that those numbers come from.

There's also an infographic about race and marriage longevity; they suggest the results could be related to the differences in level of education among adults with different racial or ethnic backgrounds. But since we don't talk about race in OTT I didn't post this yesterday

As well as SES and age that marriages began, from what I remember reading.

Stats people do this all the time - assume a future that looks like the past. What they seem to forget is one of the few things I learned in college that I actually remember: The only present trend that has ever continued is that no present trends continue.

Totally true. I mean, Santa used to give me presents for Christmas, but then one year he just stopped. WTF Santa?!

Yes and he likes to be financially responsible.While they're married she'll piss his money away,then take more in the divorce in a few years.

Exceptions don't prove rules.
Seems like a pretty terrible bet to make.

Likely skewed by the fact that people who don't cohabit before marriage have a very high percentage of highly religious/socially conservative folks who are very much against divorce.

It’s not a rule. That’s the point I’m making. People who have their financial **** together their entire life are the exception, as are people who never improve at all.

Or maybe people willing to get married before living together are more likely to stay in a bad marriage.

Most Americans are terrible with money their entire lives

And yet everyone wants what we've got!

This doesn’t contradict what I said at all. Anyway, on topic do you mean to say that most Americans are unfit to be in relationships? Because that’s the context here.

Yeah you should all stay single, and stop breeding while you're at it.

This, said tactfully, could save so many kids who grow up in toxic households with adults who don't have their **** together in the slightest. But people reserve comments like these for single folks who are critical of "American Societal Norms" when it comes to marriage & kids, even though they aren't contributing to the divorce rate nor growing population. They rarely say this to troubled parents who already have kids and are fostering a toxic household of arguments, neglect, and anxiety.

Cause you know..... Parents are perfect! And every child is a blessing and a complete bundle of joy. Even if you're not financially or mentally capable of raising something as complex as a human being.

That's one very good point. Like, people should be more responsible. Once they enter a relationship driven by whatever their own desires are, and there are children present, their own or previous, they should also take that advice. Relationships can require work. The kid didn't ask for any of it or have a choice in any of it. If you are going to bounce out and disrupt their lives again--after the disruption of entering it--cause more potential abandonment trauma for them and give them yet another example of how relationships don't work because, like, it's not fun to work through communication about spending habits with your partner...GFY and stay single for life for sure.

I agree totally with this. Not an insane view at all. Marriage and kids definitely isn't for everyone and I feel like so many people have been duped into it.

With the world as it is, the rise of the gig economy and the increasing frailty of so many job situations, f*ck having to support a wife and kids for decades, I just want to be able to randomly leave the country, rent my place out, have short term relationships and do seasonal work abroad if things get hairy here. Even if that's a last resort I want the option just for peace of mind.

To consider marriage and kids I would have to have a rock solid relationship the like of which I have never known, and to have enough money to sustain myself and family for a lifetime without needing to work. Otherwise I'd be concerned for my mental health.