.

the system works

Yak,

Please explain how you arrived at -10.27, thanks.

After terrible pick after terrible pick, Nimadamus sent this to his members 01/26:

"After what I have seen for the last couple of weeks, I have decided to put the system plays on hold, set it aside and analyze it further. As you can see here, it was hitting at 59% for 2 months over 300 plays, but more some reason has gone cold whe I stopped posting on covers and went tout.

https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/Nimadamus

I believe its possible this is negative variance as if you combine the sample sizes it is still hitting at 56%.

However, we cant continue to go the way weve been going. So starting tomorrow I will be sending you my own picks, picks that I am handicapping and selecting myself, and not just picks that fall within the guideline of what has shown to be a jekyll and hyde system.

I am shocked at the way things have gone and honestly dont even know what to say. A friend of mine called it "The curse of going tout". I personally dont believe in that kind of stuff but I will continue to track the system plays, however once again starting tomorrow you will get non system plays that I have personally handicapped and thought are solid plays, at least until this thing gets back on track"

Since that email, he has gone 22-25, excluding some huge ML favorites he played. Lmao

Good call finally going with his ESP. Screw handicapping, no one does that.

The system hasn't worked quite yet — I just sent a PM to you with payment info. I will confirm when manies received and verify workage of system then.

Oh sorry it took 5 minutes you ungrateful ape, I should probably cancel now that you've slandered my good name. You'll be hearing from my attorney, prepare your crevice.

Wow. That was fast. Received $$$s from Bluff.

System works: CONFIRMED.


EDIT: crevice preparation terminated

Confirmed

Thena,

What persuaded you to purchase a subscription?

I get -4.73 for yours.

am I in last?

If you get in on the ground floor of an operation like beast's I imagine you can put yourself in a position where you can really take off your belt for rape.

I won big on my own plays a week prior to him going tout, so I threw some of the winnings toward a subscription with him thinking his strength was CBB (looking at pick monitor). No loss for me since it was with house money - at this point, it's worth the entertainment alone. It's funny as regression towards the mean hits and he tries to justify each bad pick. As of late January, he only had about nine subscribers.

Time to share some of his posts day by day as he kept losing and losing. Comedy gold.

1/19
We're about to get hot, I can feel it. Since I started tracking this system of course theres been a couple crazy days here and there but I have yet to see a significant bad stretch of any kind.

1/20
Truly unbelievable. I havent witnessed anything even close to this since I started tracking this system... Tonight concludes my first week as a tout and I sent out exactly 50 plays and went 24-25-1, which is clearly unacceptable.

That being said weve had about 5 or 6 really bad surreal beats in the last few days... in any case all that says is I need to do a better job and of course I will right this ship. Variance is very real and it looks like we are experiencing it right now.

After days like today I am unable to sleep


1/21
This is a marathon guys. Theres gonna be inevitably bumps in the road but the key is to stick with it an net a long term profit. May have losing days and losing weeks, but key is to have a WINNING YEAR. Also looking forward to MLB as I crush MLB every year, documented.

1/21 later
Lets hit this and make it a 5-3 day. It is a system play as of now but wasnt earlier. Theres several factors involved in that in case anyone is wondering.

1/21 later that night
Im gonna be up all night analyzing this last week and see what the hell is going on and make the necessary adjustments to get us where we need to be.

Week 1 of being a tout has concluded with me going 4-4 today and 24-25 for the week.

To see these results are unacceptable to me is a massive understatement.

1/24

Guys it looks like were on a bit of a downswing at the moment, like I was just telling someone it is absolutely essential to wager a small % of your bankroll on each play so you can withstand these downswings. Its only a matter time until we catch fire you just have to make sure you stay in the game. I hate the losses as much as you do but as you are aware its part of the game...

"Even Billy Walters has said, Ive had losing weeks, losing months, but NEVER A LOSING YEAR."

The whole reason I went tout is because I tracked this system for 300 picks and it hit at 59%.

Unfortunately over a course of 10,20,30 picks crazy things can happen as you are well aware.

Lets turn it around now. And those of you that signed up that I didnt win for will receive another week or month free based on whatever they signed up for.

Okay...
After studying Yaks calculation and going to past Pickmonitor accounts, (Where, of course, I can't find a single bet on a favorite, so again, of course, I never won a bet that started with a negative number and now I'm lost in total confusion!)

So using the Beast method of calculation, I won 11 bets and lost nine, so I must be winning, at least that seems logical to me.

Here's my thinking - A bet where I win a -105 means that I get 5, plus I don't need to subtract 100, leaving me with 105, but that means when I win a +105, I get 105 and I don't subtract the 100 (or -1 with the recalculation) meaning I would be up 205 on just that bet. I'm thinking I'm somewhere up around 200 units, but I could be a little off.

If someone could tell me the answers to these things I will get out my old paper tape calculator and get a little closer. (I'm looking at you jmakin!)

If you win a -500 bet =
If you win a -800 bet =
If you win a -120 bet = (I guessed 80 on this, but that does not agree with Yak's calculating.)
If you win a bet -115 = (This one is like higher math!)
If you win a -210 bet =
And -130 =
And -105 =

There must be some sort of mathy thing to figure this out, but well...

Edit - I'm looking at Offtopic's numbers for -115 and -130, no wonder I'm confused! We didn't even have numbers that looked like that when I was in school!

Incroyable

So funny how he thinks 59% over 300 picks is a statistically meaningful sample that justifies him going tout. Wonder how many units he won over those 300 picks!

There are no corner seats in the sportsbook.
#rip #numbersandmath

Thena,

Subscribers can see how many other subscribers there are? lol, that seems dumb.

Were you aware of this forum and thread before hand?

Thena, here is the pickmonitor account he was using just before getting hot on the new nimadamus account and deciding he had the results to go tout https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/uncannybeast/. Did he mention that to any of his subscribers?

I'm surprised that subscribers aren't reversing their PayPal transactions.