Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad Childress
Seems to me like everything changes if it turns out the stuff about the plane's route and route plan turn out to be misinformation. While some things are more believable than others (the ping data is solid), it wouldn't be surprising at this point to find out any supposed facts turn out to be bogus.
I was on board with it being some kind of human action 100%, but I think some kind of catastrophic occurrence has gained massive equity in the last day or so with a hypoxia-related event being most likely.
Basically, ChrisV has pretty much owned this thread and has probably been the best person on the internet for interpreting the information. I just wonder how many "facts" he is working with will turn out to be false.
Thanks. Yeah it's annoying how many apparently credible facts are later walked back. I'm tinfoiling about this one a little still because I don't see how such a specific thing gets completely made up, but I'll accept that it's true for the moment.
I think think human action is by far the most likely since the facts which are a huge problem for other theories (no attempt to contact the ATC they were handed off to, no mayday call, transponder going dead 2-3 mins after last ATC contact) are exactly what we would expect under a human action theory. The only mystery under the theory that a pilot flew the plane out into the middle of the ocean to hide it is why he would want to do that. That is admittedly a big mystery, but I'd rather have a theory that has one completely baffling mystery than one which has like 5 of them.
I also put a fair bit of weight in the fact that everyone investigating - including Malaysian authorities, who have a large incentive to invent some accident theory of why the plane went down - have human action as almost certain. This means that whatever the actual facts of the case are, they obviously support a human action theory pretty strongly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado
The main problem with the hypoxia theory is that my understanding is that it doesn't last long (before being incapacitated) and the pilots turned off a bunch of stuff and changed course without making any strange communications or doing anything that would crash the plane.
Agreed its possible but I'd still put it well below foul play.
Yeah foul play still the lead theory for sure, but since there's only circumstantial evidence of it now, gotta consider other possibilities.