Irma is Coming (and Jose is not too far behind)
09-10-2017
, 05:06 PM
09-10-2017
, 05:10 PM
09-10-2017
, 05:51 PM
09-10-2017
, 05:54 PM
09-10-2017
, 05:56 PM
Here's the most recent NOAA graphic to go along with Jbrochu's update:
and the forecast advisory from the same time:
and the discussion update from the same time:
and the forecast advisory from the same time:
Quote:
000
WTNT21 KNHC 102053
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET
* NORTH MIAMI BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO INDIAN
PASS
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 81.8W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......190NE 170SE 140SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 180SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 81.8W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.7W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.7N 83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 160SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.5N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 39.0N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 81.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT21 KNHC 102053
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET
* NORTH MIAMI BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO INDIAN
PASS
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 81.8W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......190NE 170SE 140SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 180SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 81.8W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.7W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.7N 83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 160SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.5N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 39.0N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 81.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
and the discussion update from the same time:
Quote:
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
Irma made landfall a couple of hours ago near Marco Island,
Florida with an estimated intensity of 100 kt. The eye just
passed over Naples, and assuming some decay over land, the current
intensity estimate is 95 kt. The interaction with the Florida
Peninsula along with strong southwesterly shear should cause
significant weakening, but Irma's large and powerful circulation
will likely maintain hurricane strength until Monday morning at the
earliest. Irma should be well inland and weaken to a remnant low in
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is above the model
consensus.
Center fixes indicate a slightly west of due northward motion at
about 350/12 kt. Global models indicate that Irma is embedded
within a broader cyclonic mid-level gyre. The cyclone is expected
to be steered around the eastern side of this gyre over the next few
days. This will take the system inland over the southeastern
United states within a day or so. The track guidance remains in
good agreement, and the official forecast is close to the model
consensus with a slight lean toward the ECMWF solution. This is
very close to the previous NHC track.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in
the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida and spread into central
and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday.
2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding
along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of
catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation.
3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida
regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma
are also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into
portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
4. Irma is producing very heavy rain and inland flooding across much
of Florida, which will quickly spread to the rest of the southeast
United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour is
leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and
rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five
days in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average
rainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are
expected. Significant river flooding is also possible beginning
Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western
South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall
of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected.
Mountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to
flash flooding. Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average
amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama and
Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may
occur.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 26.2N 81.8W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0600Z 28.0N 82.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 30.7N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0600Z 33.1N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1800Z 34.5N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1800Z 36.5N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 14/1800Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
Irma made landfall a couple of hours ago near Marco Island,
Florida with an estimated intensity of 100 kt. The eye just
passed over Naples, and assuming some decay over land, the current
intensity estimate is 95 kt. The interaction with the Florida
Peninsula along with strong southwesterly shear should cause
significant weakening, but Irma's large and powerful circulation
will likely maintain hurricane strength until Monday morning at the
earliest. Irma should be well inland and weaken to a remnant low in
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is above the model
consensus.
Center fixes indicate a slightly west of due northward motion at
about 350/12 kt. Global models indicate that Irma is embedded
within a broader cyclonic mid-level gyre. The cyclone is expected
to be steered around the eastern side of this gyre over the next few
days. This will take the system inland over the southeastern
United states within a day or so. The track guidance remains in
good agreement, and the official forecast is close to the model
consensus with a slight lean toward the ECMWF solution. This is
very close to the previous NHC track.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in
the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida and spread into central
and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday.
2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding
along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of
catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation.
3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida
regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma
are also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into
portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
4. Irma is producing very heavy rain and inland flooding across much
of Florida, which will quickly spread to the rest of the southeast
United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour is
leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and
rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five
days in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average
rainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are
expected. Significant river flooding is also possible beginning
Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western
South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall
of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected.
Mountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to
flash flooding. Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average
amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama and
Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may
occur.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 26.2N 81.8W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0600Z 28.0N 82.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 30.7N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0600Z 33.1N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1800Z 34.5N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1800Z 36.5N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 14/1800Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN
09-10-2017
, 05:56 PM
09-10-2017
, 06:06 PM
09-10-2017
, 07:17 PM
09-10-2017
, 07:59 PM
09-10-2017
, 08:22 PM
