Didace,


You seem to have absolutely no clue how close to sea level a lot of Pinellas county and Tampa is, especially around the bay. Lots of places could be potentially completely underwater. In fact, DidYouKnow: Tampa Bay was once a freshwater lake until the sea level rose high enough for it to become a bay.



BiggerBoat,

The hospitals in St Pete are in relatively great locations for safety. I believe St Anthonys, Bayfront and the General Hospital are all in the safest zones for storm surge and are some of the safest buildings for weathering the storm. Good luck, you could be stuck there for awhile.



All,


Something that could be particularly worrisome is the fact that multiple times in the past 10 or so years Pinellas has been ordered to evacuate only for the hurricane to not hit and the hurricane/storm would then hit to where citizens fled to. Many people are going to stay, even in very dangerous locations.

can you post another pic with more land in it for later comparison reference? stay safe.

I think we're gonna need a 5-day forecast of whose containment thread this will end up becoming.

Then I'd say they are complete ****ing idiots and Darwin is bound to catch them sooner or later anyway

Hey guys, it's fine. Only the northeast part experiences bad storm surges, don't worry.

Because that's what I said?

I talked to several people in Biloxi poker rooms well after Katrina who did the same. The only one who moved his vehicle high enough couldn't get it out for weeks afterward.

Large tornado confirmed in Broward County.

To set the record straight and most importantly to avoid the possible loss of life, normally when a hurricane in the Atlantic hits the east coast, yes, the north east quadrant, because hurricanes rotate in a counter clockwise direction, pushes the water from the ocean onto the shore causing the water to rise in a storm surge.

HOWEVER, because Florida is a peninsula, it will also push the water from the southwestern quadrant due to northwesterly winds on the left side of the storm, causing a surge on the west coast of Florida.



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This thread has almost become unreadable.

If you want or need up to date info I'll post this again. This is active 24/7 up to and after landfall. Updates are obviously a bit slower during the late hours. If it's relavant info about the storm you'll find it there
https://www.reddit.com/live/zkadef2ttzql/

palm fronds already looking like they're coming off

well, there a lot better than earthquake models

Looks like Irma made enough interaction with Cuba that it's lost quite a bit of intensity. NHC release now has it staying a cat 3 rest of the way. Could be good news. They also state its possible that it's about to go through another EWRC and that if it does its got the potential to strengthen more than they expect.

Looks like they expect her to ride the coast now.

GL biggerboat and all those with friends and family in the area.

All of this 100%. Literally a third of the residents of my county are under mandatory evacuation orders (and I'm not even Pinellas). Luckily from a storm surge standpoint, storms coming from this direction are not totally dire but it isn't going to be pretty.

And to the last point of hurricane "fatigue" I'm hoping Harvey recency bias will put most of that to rest. People anecdotally at least seem to be taking this seriously.

Hoping they are right. Listening to FOX 13 here in Tampa and my fear is their main weather guys are saying intensity forecasts (even from the obviously reputable NHC) can be pretty bad at times. That water is really warm and I am a bit worried I am going to wake up in the morning to a cat 4/5 again.

Yeah Im not sure how accurate the intensity forecasts are either. there has already been a sharp quick rise in wind speeds in the eye wall just since the NHC forecast was out an hour ago. She has a lot of warm water to churn through. NHC seems to be counting on the pressure system in the gulf introducing some shear to west side of Irma. Cat 4 is still good chance. I'm not sure how possible a cat 5 is at this point with how much lander interaction it had in Cuba.

The way this thing looks like it's going to ride the coast and put the state on the dirty side just does not look fun. Hurricane strength winds into Georgia. Atlanta now under tropical storm watches as well

i believe i read somewhere that a hurricane has never hit that armpit area of Florida?

last 100 years

More like wet palm beach, amirite?

thanks for that link..

Just ran into this, looks really weird. Good luck everyone.