shaft - Do you understand what causes a storm surge during a hurricane?

Yes, there is massive variation and that's one of the reasons the models are terrible. And no, they have not improved an order of magnitude in recent years. I have no idea how they calculate the accuracy of hurricanes but the Euro model just missed by a few hundred miles. I think September 6th it was predicting Irma sliding 25-50 miles east of Miami up the Florida coast. Now it's sliding up the west coast into the gulf. This is a ridiculous miss and I wouldn't be surprised if it hits the Florida panhandle or even as far west as Texas.

At least three different things. Could you explain plz?

Wind here in Tallahassee has been building all day sustained winds around 14mph right now, last year during Hermine some people lost power for over 10 days. There's lots of old live oak trees, tall pines both are prone to shearing off limbs or toppling which wreaks havoc with the utility's.

I'll try and get some aftermath photos cause it's not looking good for the Capital city.

Storm surge is caused primarily by the wind blowing surface water. A contributing factor is the angle of the storm's approach to the shore. Perpendicular is worse than parallel. For an Atlantic hurricane it is highest in the northeast quad of the storm.

Are you serious man? A forecast being off 6 days before the eye makes landfall is a rediculous miss? Is this your first time watching a hurricane? I'm curious to what exactly you think was "off" all the forecasts have model cones of probability. The west coast of Florida has always been in that cone. Expecting a forecast to depict that exact spot of landfall even 48 hours out is nearly impossible. They will continue to give cones of possibilities. They just keep narrowing. I think you are vastly underrating how hard weather is to predict. Hurricanes being up there with the most difficult weather anomaly to predict.

Lol, the local station just interviewed two bikini clad blondes in the beach. Apparently they wanted to pay their last respects to the beach or something. The reporter asked them how they have prepared for the storm. One of the girls said "well, we have Cheezits".

I know I only look at forecasts 6 days out because it never changes.

Unfortunately, people are going to die.

This thread hit Cat 6 AIDS.

Fema say you're on your own in florida keys.

Don't understand wanting to stay behind at all.

Good. Officials there told them to gtfo three days ago with the warning that they could not guarantee any areas of the keys would be survivable. Anyone that stayed is beyond dumb. They are putting emergency services personnels lives at risk by asking them to help save them when this thing inevitably destroys the keys.

How does September 6th get translated into 6 days? That was three days ago and the mean forecast line shifted by a few hundred miles. This is a huge miss and it could become even larger as its still moving WNW.

You said things have gotten an order of magnitude better in the last few years. This is clearly wrong. I know hurricanes are very difficult to predict - which is why the models are terrible. Maybe you are speaking in relative terms, but in absolute terms, these forecasts suck. When a 95% confidence interval for the area of landfall is literally more than a thousand miles wide at this point in time, I think you can safely say the models are terrible.

What is your 95% confidence interval for landfall? Just give two cities.

What are you talking about?

Irma being twice the size of Florida's width probably has nothing to do with the area of landfall being 1000 miles wide.

Best of luck to biggerboat and the others down there (or with friends and family in the area).

Got an email from some friends whose boat is at Marco Island. They secured it as best as possible, then went to a hotel in Naples built of concrete, up on the 3rd floor. Several days of food & water, they're going to make the best of it.

Storm surge predicted to be 15' at Marco. Unfortunately, the pilings at the dock are 12' above normal tides. Could be a mess, here's hoping for the best.

I said 6 days from when the eye makes landfall. that's expected late Sunday into Monday. so 5 days sorry. you are so far off it's not really worth it at this point. you have zero clues about how hurricane tracks work. there's an enormous amount of data that has to be taken into account. If you have a suggestion to improve the models be our guest. hurricane cones start out massive because hurricanes take unexpected turns. I know that's hard to comprehend, but that's how they work. The hurricane is well inside the expected cone from September 6th. I'd say they did a pretty good job. You'll notice if you actually read the NHS briefings that the center of the cone is absolutely not the area predicted for landfall. you'll read that landfall can occur anywhere in that area.

The euro and gfs have both been more and more accurate over the last few years. there are data sets to prove it on the NHS sites and many other met sites. feel free to do some research

I won't be responding to this anymore because this isn't the time for this discussion. things in the keys are getting serious and it will be bad for Florida soon. I hope everyone stays safe. really concerned for my family down there

heres a link to the key west web came superstream youtube. if you are on desktop there is an option to switch manually between the 6 webcams. if you are on mobile you'll be seeing whichever one the master feed has up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWhoLbbhkQ

latest pressure readings have this back down to 933mb. the only Florida hurricane with a lower pressure was Andrew. still time to strengthen as well

Storm surge estimates on Florida west coast just revised higher.

6 to 15 feet depending on where you are.

Here is september 6th.

Lived in Staten Island during Sandy, they had 13 ft. surge I believe and streets more than a mile from the ocean were inundated. I think people have a hard time equating "storm surge" with how far inland the water can go. This will be massive destruction if surge is as big as predicted.

Don't forget with the rough surf there could be damaging waves up to 20 feet or more on top of that.

Greek has us steaming towards Cat 7. That's when it gets so strong it starts spawning full blown AIDSnados

Duke energy has 1400 trucks standing by.

Yeah, I had my truck parked on the first floor of a garage because the second floor isn't covered. I moved it up.