Tides for Tampa Bay tomorrow are:
+2.7ft @5:46am
-0.6ft @12:35pm
+2.4ft @7:02pm

We were talking about the hurricane windows in the condo I'm staying. She told me they are rated for a 90 mph coconut. Made me chuckle.

Historically the euro has been more accurate. The NWS has invested a lot into the GFS in recent years which has helped it catch up the the Euro in terms of accuracy.. It's still behind it but considered to be #2/3 most accurate.

Good link that describes the different models
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8gtWBIIs1Q

Watch darwinism at work. Guy gets smashed by a wave a few minutes ag on the key west web cam

Everything didace is posting in this thread is dangerous and could lead to the loss of life. Do not listen to him. Please please stop posting in this thread.

You think accuracy is dangerous? If you think I'm wrong about something point it out.

Someone said that Tampa would be leveled. Not even New Orleans was leveled by Katrina. So in the sense that Didace was saying that Tampa will not be leveled, he is overwhelmingly likely to be correct.

What you are saying contradicts links others have posted. Just post your sources.

that key west live webcam is something else

I hope online nittery about hyperbole gets drowned in a 50 foot storm surge and blown to the moon by 200+ mph winds.

For instance?

All the models seem pretty terrible. They just shifted several hundred miles to the west from just a few days ago. The 95% confidence interval for landfall is probably still greater than a 1,000 miles.

You have posted zero links/sources for anything. Maybe you're right about everything you post.

Yeah, hurricanes go where they want to.

The nittery is they expected the high pressure area to the Northeast Atlantic to weaken and the jet stream over the Northeast US to dip down further. Neither happened.

I don't think you can say that they are terrible. Forecasting something even as small as a thunderstorm will hit is nearly impossible 24 hours in advance. Something as big as this hurricane? There is an unreal amount of variables that go into predicting these things and even then, as Irma has shown us, the hurricanes still defy logic and do whatever they want.

Forecasting these has improved ten fold in recent years. It will continue to get more accurate. I believe I recently read that the euro is better than 84% accurate when forecasting out to 96 hours.

Dude, I don't even think I've contradicted anyone very much.

It wasn't just "someone" Tampa itself produced models of what the think will happen in a cat 5 hurricane. They produced these because they believe the city is way behind where it should be to handle storms of this magnitude. In that prediction, they expect Tampa to be "leveled." the article states they believe the loss of life could be worse than Katrina.

Leveled in this sense alludes to damage like what was seen in Katrina imo. Is leveled the wrong word? Probably. But I get what is being said.

I along with a lot of other people hope he's right. But to think that there's no chance of this bringing utter devastion to the Tampa area with a direct hit is asanine.

Similar with family in Tampa. Everybody claims to live on a goddamned hill!

Has anyone told them about wind?

Tower cranes all over the place looking dodgy as ****.

Can be dismantled in as little as half day work, why they still standing over residential properties?

http://www.cranecrews.com/crane-blog...of-tower-crane

The models assumed a Cat5 coming in from the gulf with a 12-15 foot storm surge. That is very unlikely for Irma.

Who has said that?

"I meant to do that."

Guess it wasn't his bike.

New Orleans didn't catch the eye of Katrina. It hit the Mississippi coast. The Mississippi coast was leveled. New Orleans' damage was largely due to flooding after the levees caved.

Dids, you sound like the people in George W. Bush's FEMA before they found out people were packed into the convention center. Tampa's never had a direct hurricane hit--there's a bunch of **** about to go wrong.

Okay. I give. It is the end of times. Predicting anything less is dangerous and needs to be dealt with harshly.

it is extremely dangerous to post something like this in a thread because someone may mistakenly think you know what youre talking about.



semantics as far as "leveled" goes, but this can be incredibly catastrophic because of the draining and pumping issues Tampa has.


Just because it is not predicted to be a Category 5 does not mean it will not reach it. Hurricanes are not a science.

THIS IS THE WORST THING YOU CAN POST HERE. THERE ARE REAL PEOPLE HERE READING THIS THREAD. WHAT IF SOMEONE IN TAMPA READ THIS THREAD AND THOUGHT YOU WERE SOME AUTHORITY ON THIS AND DECIDED TO STAY HOME AND DIED??? YOU ARE NOT IN ANY POSITION TO MAKE CLAIMS ON THIS. YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHETHER OR NOT 15' SURGE IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

CURRENTLY PREDICTED. THIS IS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE. THIS IS NOT MIXING VINEGAR AND BAKING SODA.

Meh, I don't even get out of bed for less than a 15 foot surge. Wind? Yeah, like that's even real.