That's a pretty solid win percentage you've got there, Yak! Especially betting that silly sport y'all call football!

Having two hunchcap accounts is going to kill me. All of my picks made today went under the same account. I was logged into the other account in another tab and it looked like it was going to the other account, but behind the scenes it all went into the Hunchcap A one. I'll try to keep my **** together in the future, but I don't know what to do now. I made six picks in the Hunchcap A account that belonged in Hunchcap B. Three of them have been graded and three are upcoming.

I remade the 3 upcoming picks in the Hunchcap B acct, but it is too late to get in on the ones that have already been graded. I'm going to end up with six bogus picks on account A. It would be helpful to know how this will be graded as it would affect my bidding strategy going forward. Since the picks are invalid in account A, can they just be used to adjust the account B results? which account will get the penalties, if any?

I'm terribly worried about the same thing happening to me, obviously. It's why I haven't made a pm account for the football hunch yet!

Double-hunchers,

A Christmas present to you all.

Non qualifying bowl picks in a cfb hunch account we'll just ignore in the cfb hunch and include in the Christmas hunch. If possible, make them again in the Christmas hunch account if you notice them in time.

Same thing for picks made in Christmas hunch that you meant only for the cfb hunch, as long as you specify which accounts the picks are for prior to game starting.

Penalties will only be applied to Howard style wrong odds/wrong dates/etc type picks.

Edit: of course, any objections to this treatment from any contestant will be considered. I just feel penalizing this is not in the spirit of the contest, and the main point of penalties is just to make judging less of a pain.

that's the spirit - throw soup a bone...

Thanks for clarifying. If, by some miracle, I am in contention when all is said and done, I might have to make some adjustments if any of my double booked bets come through because the odds changed somewhat between when I originally made the bet in the wrong account and when I made them in the right account. If the usual thing happens and I lose those bets, it won't matter since -1 is still -1.

For anyone trying to score, my Christmas Hunchcap is missing 3 bets, all of which won for +2.62. Tottenham will undoubtedly suck today and cost me all of that and then some.

https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/HunchcapA

https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/HunchcapB


I guess it's time to get hunching!

Babs got 2nd place on PM for octobir in football picks.

Back in business gentlemen. I can hear the belt loosening from here.

I have many bets on the Pelicans over the Clippers tonight.

It's possible Jim actually stumbled onto a market inefficiency. But if he did it's since been corrected since he's had a slow bleed since mid November.

The other, probably likelier, option is that he ran like the sun for about six weeks of football betting.

Lol a month. You can have a graph that looks like any of these over 1000 (ONE THOUSAND) picks with a -2.5% ROI


You actually have over a 20% chance of being up after 1000 picks even with a guaranteed expected loss of -2.5% on every pick.

People have no comprehension how much variance there is in sports.

Source: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...dvc=d&aup=True

Soup,

Please confirm that your correct total should be:

Grinchadamus account picks
+3 on pick total
+2.62 units
(the three Temple-Wake picks)
+.01 unit adjustment for different line in one of the picks

El D, I picked both sides of the Tex A&M game, as George Costansa said to his boss when confronted about pounding the cleaning lady on his desk at work, "is that wrong??"

Lol olds

That's correct. There were other different lines on picks I lost which ended up not to matter, but +.01 on just one of the winners. My total adjustment should be +2.63 units and missing +3 picks.

The handegg adjustment should be -6 picks and -4.13

So i'm guessing your guys "deal" fell through already? How surprising.

So ADR, you're saying there's a reasonable chance someone with a ROI of -1.91 after 1900 picks is actually a long term winner?

Hey Red you outlived Carrie Fisher and her Mom, and Prince and a handful of other notable artist and actors - what does that feel like? You're gonna kick Alan Rickman's ass in living.

I except to outlive Kanye West and Justin Beiber by 35+ and 55+ years respectively fwiw

Account for A

https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/Donttrustbabs

Nat, I bet a friend of mine a c note that I'd outlive him - don't think I'll say anything to his widow. When his son was 4 he also bet me that he (son) would make a hole-in-one and get laid before I do. No need to call the widow, I think we're even.

Red,

Nothing in the few-holds-barred Christmas week hunch free-for-all says you can't take opposite sides, so fade (yourself) away!

Edit: we'd look unfavorably on anyone who tries to lock in an early positive score by fading their own picks (or following someone else's), though, and may not allow them in future hunchcaps.

Adr,
I appreciate that your post is only like half hugely stupid this time. Wtf is a set of graphs that are possible, with no true context supposed to mean. One could also be someone who is wrong 99% of the time, and win 1000 in a row. It's just unlikely. The graphs are meaningless. The calculations like you reference of probability to be a winner or up/down x units after y wagers is all that's actually important.
/Sidebar

If I win this one I'm never picking games again without a randomizer!

Christmas Week Hunchers:

GM: You currently have 27 picks with a bunch pending. Are you just jimming it up to try and get your account positive?

Yak: the coin is looking very strong!


Contest:
Wide open Christmas week hunch (25 picks). $50 or $100 contest. 1st, 2nd, and SECOND FROM LAST will pay. Games starting Sat Dec 24 through Sun Jan 1, and must complete by Jan 2 (all times Pacific). Any pick available on PM with odds between -1000 and +1000. That's it for rules. Standard penalties for invalid odds or date picks.

Hunchers:
Yak $100 6.93 (21)
samuri $100 5.47 (22)
soup $100 4.2 (9)
El D $100 2.49 (13)
owster $100 1.96 (21)
ec $100 .8 (7)
fuluck $100 .13 (21)
Banned $100 0 (0)
sak $100 0 (0)
BigToe $100 -1.18 (12)
Howard $100 -1.37 (19)
GM $50 -1.4 (25)
red $100 -4.49 (17)
oT $50 -6.05 (13)

PAYOUTS (70% / 20% / 10%)

PAYOUT A ($700 total payout for $50 entrants, oT and GM):
$500 first
$150 second
$50 second to last

PAYOUT B ($600 add'l payout for $100 entrants)
$400 first
$100 second
$100 second to last

TOTAL POSSIBLE PAYOUT for $100 entrants:
$900 first
$250 second
$150 second to last

CFB Hunchers:

First game going off tomorrow. Get your first picks in before Orange Bowl starts!

Last minute signups from regular hunchers/flippers still accepted!


Contest:
NCAAF big six/playoff challenge hunch. $50 winner-take all. 20 picks total. 2 picks each on the non-playoff bowls. 4 picks each on semis and championship. Any normal pick available on these games (o/u, team totals, moneyline, quarter/half bets, etc).

Hunchers:
fuluck
red
soup
Howard
ec
El D

PAYOUT: $300 winner-take-all

Games for hunch A (All times Eastern):

2 picks each on these 4:

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Florida State
8 p.m., ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
No. 15 Western Michigan vs. No. 8 Wisconsin
1 p.m., ESPN
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual
No. 9 USC vs. No. 5 Penn State
5 p.m., ESPN
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.

Allstate Sugar Bowl
No. 14 Auburn vs. No. 7 Oklahoma
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans


4 picks each on these 3:

Dec. 31

College Football Playoff semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 4 Washington vs. No. 1 Alabama
3 p.m., ESPN
Georgia Dome, Atlanta

College Football Playoff semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Clemson
7 p.m., ESPN
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

Jan. 9

College Football Playoff National Championship
8 p.m., ESPN
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.