Sorry guys, but it's gonna be 14-14 at halftime and Patriots winning 28-24

Hmm, this is distressing. 538 gives expected payouts by quarter here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...-bowl-squares/

My squares:


So it looks like I've destroyed roughly $134 in expected value, for an expected ROI of -67%. That's not good. My only solace is that the 538 expected values are based on 2002-2011 scores, and the change in extra point/2-point conversion behavior makes the traditional squares a little less valuable, and my unorthodox squares a little more valuable.

Still, I'm obviously going to need a significant amount of rungood on Sunday. Probably gonna wear my Tommy Angelo hat.

Was feeling bad about my #'s then saw homanga's. Gl guys and thanks for running this ec.

lol comical that y'all noticed how bad the squares were for me. Yea pretty amazing. All 5 or 9s except 1 with a 2. Haha. Would love to see my EV if someone is bored

Don't worry I used all my run good in the $10.

I need some safeties.

When you need multiple safeties, that's usually bad. But hey, there's been a safety in what, 2 of the last 4?

That's a cool project. Only problem is that after moving the extra point back, I suspect that the odds have shifted so more weird numbers might be in play.

Obviously, I'm psyched that I got to cover 9-5 both ways in the $10 grid.

That's a great point!

Consecutive numbers. Far too bunched up to be random, penetrates.

SB Hunchers,

Deadline to post picks is before anthem starts.

Rules:
Select 20 of these Super Bowl props and post all 20 in a single post.

For each pick list the pick name and choice, like: "MARGIN OF VICTORY Falcons by 37-42 points +6600"

If there are multiple choices for a wager, you can pick each one separately (ie: you can pick multiple players as MVP, Brady throwing 1,2, and 3 TDs, etc.)

Each pick represents a 1 unit wager placed

These are Bovada props, so hopefully we'll be able to get official grading for everything.

If there are any disputes, a panel consisting of non-involved people from this list will rule: Me, Howard, Bluff, EC, Alobar, Soup.

If anyone has more than 20 listed, the first 20 listed will count.

If anyone has a prop not from the official list, or odds not from the official list, there will be a 1-unit penalty for each occurrence.


OFFICIAL SUPER BOWL PROP HUNCH FOR NFL EXPERTS ONLY SELECTION LIST

$100 Super Bowl Prop Hunch for NFL Experts participants:
El Diablo
Yakmelk
NS4U
Simor
Howard
redbuck
EC
Samuri
Bluff
fuluck414
Alobar
ADR (Alobar)
auralex14 (Bluff)
EddyB66 (ec)
Olive von Treesong
Vader (Bluff)
Mrs_outlaw
BluffMyWife
Caldarooni


Payout (based on current 19):
1st place $1200 2nd place $500 3rd place $200

Yikes those Squares lol...not lookin good.

Bluff are you vouching for me in the Prop pool? Thank you if so, if not, I can venmo you again no worries.

Up to you but you're good either way.

So are we posting our lists out in the open for other penetrates to see, prior to the start?

I believe that's what we did last year. Then grade your bets and post your total if you think you're in contention.

Just to confirm:

Final = FINAL game score including OT, not end of 4th quarter score. Right?

Why don't you wait and see what works for you and then make your argument. That's what Jim would do. Be more like Jim.

Correct. I had put it that way on the sign up lists, but I guess I didn't specify on the actual grids.

First of all, thanks for taking the time to organize this.

When you say "every pick represents a 1 unit wager placed," on underdogs, clearly that's risking 1 unit. However, on favorites, say we play a -500. Is it risking 1 unit to win 0.2 units? Or risking 5 to win 1?

Also, since you say its bovada's props, then bovada's grade on them will be official, correct? Because in rare cases books have graded differently, say the anthem length is exactly 2:15. One book has their stopwatch and gets it at 2:14, grades the under as a winner, but bovada's stopwatch clocks it at 2:15.5, and they grade their overs as a winner. We would grade along with bovada, yes?

"Each pick represents a 1 unit wager placed" = risking 1 unit

Thanks for running again El Diablo.

Personally, I'm seeing the most value in the non game related picks. Isn't the anthem guy a country singer? Wearing hat Yes is obv a lock.

Because I'm not a lying cheating scambag?

Careful with that pick. He preformed at halftime of a Thanksgiving game a couple years ago and did so with no hat. He goes for the boy band look a lot.

Edit: But yes, he is a country singer

fu:
Yes. If you are a pussy, you can PM it to someone who has already posted their list and then post it right after the start of the game. If you do that, say who you sent it to. Note that you will still be required to post it ITT prior to kickoff for it to count.

ADR - yes bovada grading by default. However, if there's a clear grading error, the judging committee can overrule (something that everyone agrees bovada will regrade and fix later).

That. So each wrong pick is -1 points.

Dude, stop helping these idiots with your advanced research!

The football picks are set by expert NFL bookmakers and there is little value there. Non-game picks are super soft and where a true capper can really find a huge edge and get rich.

El D,

I guess I shouldn't say what he wore the 2 times I saw him in concert, or how long his last 3 national anthems have taken?