Some states have started to claim that your job is really at the office even if you don't ever go there so they can tax your income.

Both of those stories represent what I call "lying with statistics."

The CNN one makes a point of "lots of people moving," and supports it with the statistic that the 8.93 million movers represent "an increase of nearly 94,000 from the same period the year before." Note the impression of size given by using the zeros in the increase and not in the overall number. There's no direct untruth here, but an increase of 94K is only just over 1% more than the year before. Not nearly as significant as the article implies. Also note that while California made the headline, it did not make the top five states for percentages of moves that were outbound.

The LA Times article, on the other hand, uses actual statistics for the things it wants to emphasize, and word pictures with no numbers for things it soft pedals. For example, it gives the statement that among those moving, the percentage leaving the state has been increasing since 2015 the "trend that continued in 2020 with 'no marked increase,'" rather than giving actual numbers. All of the discussion of San Francisco, on the other hand, gets numerous statistics thrown at it.

Hiding at the end of the article is the note that "The number of people leaving California typically tracks with the amount entering the state. But the findings show that wasn’t the case in the fourth quarter of 2020, when 267,000 people left the state and only 128,000 entered." Is this "mass" by the standards of California's overall population? Probably not, but it is a net loss of more than the 94K over 3 quarters that the CNN article treats as "lots of people leaving." Same facts, different spin.

Out of curiosity, I looked up what's on the market in my hometown (dying town in N WI).

The most expensive house there was listed for about 62% of what mine would go for here.

So I could go back there and be the overpaying invader.

Except I'd have to live somewhere it's winter five months/year. Nah, maybe I'll try San Diego/Keys/somewhere warm instead.

San Diego is one of, if not the, best city in the nation. I love it there. There’s just an awesome vibe to it all.

People actually let you get over when driving and don't stop their cars in crosswalks. Surreal.

I spent 3-4 days there a few years ago. Really enjoyed it. It's on the list of places for me to investigate my fantasy of having a winter place.

Need to spend more time to investigate further. Maybe this winter.

San Diego is the best place in the US if price isn’t a consideration.

San Diego is right near the top, but if price is not a consideration go north on the coast 150 miles.

Are you talking about Laguna/Newport area? If so, I personally still prefer La Jolla in San Diego.

Or are you talking even further north to the Santa Barbara area?

While it'll probably remain a fantasy because I'm too cautious, I'd like to start snowbirding at some point.

San Diego certainly a candidate. I also like the Florida Keys. Might consider other spots.

Anyway, if anyone has any experience and tips for the logistics of maintaining two houses, I'd like that.

Get condos, airbnb the one you aren't in and get a good cleaner that can give you updates etc. upon checkout. Know a local handyman for when there's problems.

The good thing about buying in Dallas is that it's one of the fastest growing metros in the US so even if housing markets were to crash the long term prognosis for Dallas looks good (ie population increases mitigate downside risk). If interest rates stay low then it's unlikely we'll see prices fall in the next year.

The housing market is extra crazy in Dallas right now because people are moving from states like California at a record pace due to Covid. It's going to be hard to find a "steal" at the moment but it will likely be difficult next year and the year after as well. That's not to say you can't find a house that will continue to go up in value, especially if you buy a home in a neighborhood that is "up and coming."

Agree with this. If you have a family the prices aren’t too crazy in some of the suburbs. I don’t know much about Argyle, but I had a bad ass house in a cool neighborhood pop up on my feed today. Looks like a really small town, but so was Frisco twenty years ago.

You may find it entertaining that this weekend I bid 13% over asking price on a house and was beaten out by a 22% over offer. I’ll let the thread know what state the buyer is from if I learn.

Did you go look at the house first?

Lol

the area i live in is pretty much as common middle of no where as it gets, and housing market is still fairly crazy atm. several years ago with the natural gas industry, there was a fairly big boom to the otherwise poor economy, and even after that ended, prices never came back down. several houses i was considering recently were scooped up immediately, with several offers. not trying to burn all my cash, i decided to just rent for a while, but i was still surprised nothing decent was lasting.

I didn’t but my wife did.

I didn't for the house I bought. My parents looked at it and on that basis put a contract on it. Glad I did but wouldn't recommend that for others.

Well, that escalated quickly.

As mentioned earlier, two houses were on the market in early March for ~$515K. While they were on the market, another came on, asking $599K.

The first two went for $580K and $590K. The latter just sold for $665K.

Good for them. While I have no plans to sell, if I ever do, I'll have to remember to set aside a huge chunk of the proceeds for taxes.

When did you buy your house?

March 2000. I'll be well in excess of the $250K capital gains allowance.

NBD, as mentioned, I don't plan to sell.

.

Lumber check: what are you guys paying for a 6/5x6x16 deck board? The price here (Ontario) jumped 20% in the past week: it's now $25. If it keeps up, composite becomes the more economical option.