The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. - Page 424 - Other Topics Forum - Discuss Pop Culture, Arts and Entertainment

It would maybe actually be better. That should scare the **** out of everybody and can have a proper lockdown and get people paranoid.
Karens wouldn't want you anywhere near them.

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07-09-2020 , 08:47 AM

#10577

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 19,885

Quote:

Originally Posted by 27offsuit

I seriously can not imagine walking outside into 118 degree heat. What does it feel like, a salamander?

118 in Phoenix is tolerable. Being outside at 114 in Oklahoma City is the worst experience of my life.

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07-09-2020 , 10:31 AM

#10578

tgiggity

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 5,782

I'll take 115 in Vegas over 95 in DC anyday. Hiking red rock in July wasn't as bad as walking around the DC monuments in July

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07-09-2020 , 10:37 AM

#10579

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

Europe not having any air conditioning is looking pretty good

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07-09-2020 , 11:19 AM

#10580

that_pope

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 33,230

Vegas heat is worse than Phoenix heat because of the damn wind.

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07-09-2020 , 11:52 AM

#10581

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 99,984

Quote:

Originally Posted by Double Down

I was thinking last week about how with this recent surge that we may unintentionally reach herd immunity.

Then with some quick math, I realized that even with 100,000 cases/day, it would still take 7-8 years to hit the 80% threshold.

Of course, we're not catching all cases but since we're testing more, the number of true cases per day is probably no longer the 10x ratio it once was. But even if it was, say, 3x, then we'd still be looking at 2-3 years to hit 80%.

If we don't get a working vaccine any time soon and it truly takes that long because herd immunity becomes the more viable option, 2-3 years is enough time to cripple our economy so hard that we're sent back into the Stone Age, while the rest of the world carries on with business as usual. This could literally be the thing to end the world-owning empire that is the USA.

I don't necessarily think that outcome is going to happen, but it's definitely drawing live. If Trump wins in November I'd actually put it as pretty likely.

Most studies they've done, actual cases come in around 10x confirmed cases. Obviously give or take a lot.

When you see a 20% positive testing rate in FL, and 30% in AZ(!) that means a ton of people have it that just aren't getting tested.

I don't think it's unreasonable that 30M (~10%) Americans have or have had covid. The problem is we have no idea how long immunity lasts yet.

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07-09-2020 , 12:12 PM

#10582

tarheels2222

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 10,911

Yup, prolonged herd immunity isn't anywhere close to a lock, despite what a lot of people think.

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07-09-2020 , 12:20 PM

#10583

that_pope

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 33,230

I'm scared I have it because lol AZ, but my parents (in early 70s) come over about once a week. Me and my wife try to keep our distance even though they are close talkers, but my kids obviously can't. So as long as they keep not getting sick, I must be in the clear.

Edit: I have no symptoms and am not going out other than store, takeout pickup and work 1 day a week (minimal contact). Just being in AZ is making me freak out.

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07-09-2020 , 12:41 PM

#10584

Morphismus

BBV Poker Player of 2022

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 24,277

Interesting report by a Brit who caught it in Serbia; with a piece of information that might get at least men to take this more seriously: "Me knob stopped working!"

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07-09-2020 , 12:42 PM

#10585

pokeraz

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 3,870

Forecast revised to 119. Suck it virus. Better luck next time.

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07-09-2020 , 12:50 PM

#10586

Tom Ames

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 45,785

Quote:

Originally Posted by 27offsuit

I seriously can not imagine walking outside into 118 degree heat. What does it feel like, a salamander?

I was lucky enough to be in LV when they hit a record several years ago. The only way I could describe it to people at home (southern US with frequent 90+* days with 90+% humidity) was that it was like getting into your car that had been parked with the windows up all day in the sun during the summer. Absolutely brutal!

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07-09-2020 , 12:53 PM

#10587

VincentVega

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 9,625

115 in vegas is better than 95 in the ohio valley, it's not even close in my mind. Pouring sweat after 30 seconds is about the least desirable atmosphere I've experienced. I hate cold weather but I'd rather be cold

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07-09-2020 , 01:15 PM

#10588

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 99,984

I've worked landscaping jobs at 105 and humid in KC. Pure hell.

They gave us the day off after lunch. Didn't want a death on their hands.

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07-09-2020 , 01:17 PM

#10589

NickMPK

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,569

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarheels2222

Yup, prolonged herd immunity isn't anywhere close to a lock, despite what a lot of people think.

Expecting herd immunity to just naturally develop is crazy. It would take way too long, and more importantly, would result in an absurdly high number of deaths.

It would be so much more reasonable to cultivate herd immunity in a targeted way through a program of deliberate voluntary infection and quarantine of young and health people only.

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07-09-2020 , 01:19 PM

#10590

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,396

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Most studies they've done, actual cases come in around 10x confirmed cases. Obviously give or take a lot.
.

Yes, I mentioned that in my post. That has been the standard estimate for awhile. But with much, much more testing now, that estimate needs to be revised because that ratio of actual cases to confirmed cases is smaller. It could very well be in the 3-5x range (IF the original 10x estimate was accurate).

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07-09-2020 , 01:26 PM

#10591

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,396

Quote:

Originally Posted by Morphismus

Yeah you would need almost 1 Million new cases per day to get herd immunity in the US within a year. And that is a scenario that would probably be very problematic even if it was "just the flu". Plus it's probably impossible to keep it below 1 Million per day at that point.

Yes, although I do think that there would be a natural plateauing of cases, the higher we get due to people taking it more seriously and thus choosing to stay away from people. Similarly to how if the virus mutated to a 10% mortality rate would scare people, so would a number of cases so great that hospitals being overrun and Italy-style disaster became the norm.

I actually think that if we start hitting 500k confirmed daily cases that people will actually start taking this seriously, because by that point it would be nearly impossible for every American to not know anyone who has it.

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07-09-2020 , 01:35 PM

#10592

Emily G

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 299

Quote:

Originally Posted by NickMPK

It would be so much more reasonable to cultivate herd immunity in a targeted way through a program of deliberate voluntary infection and quarantine of young and health people only.

This dude is an actual piece of **** that has been proposing killing kids for months and is still allowed to post here. jfc

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07-09-2020 , 01:38 PM

#10593

Emily G

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 299

Just round up a bunch of poors that obviously won't skew non white and give them a few bucks nothing to see here.

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07-09-2020 , 01:40 PM

#10594

filthyvermin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 60,144

Quote:

Originally Posted by Double Down

iirc heard immunity requires at least 70% of the population infected, no?

so let's say ~230 million. if the death rate is as low as 1%, that's 2.3 million dead. and that's assuming proper medical care, which our medical system can't even come close to treating that many people.

and that's assuming immunity is even a thing. we don't even know if you are immune after you recover. and we don't even know if you ever fully recover.

on the grim side, some say heard immunity requires up to 90% infected, for 300 million. if 20% need hospitalization, and there are no beds, then about 20% will die... 60 million dead.

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07-09-2020 , 02:18 PM

#10595

VincentVega

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 9,625

That would be uh, very grim

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07-09-2020 , 02:45 PM

#10596

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,522

It's also uh, very unrealistic.

The number for herd immunity is unknown, and could theoretically be even worse than 90% if immunity doesn't last long. But the rest of the numbers are totally unsupported. We aren't seeing anything like 20% needing hospitalization, and that's even of known cases, which we know not only is an incomplete number but is skewed towards the more serious ones. Then you'd have to have them all catching it at once in order for there to be "no beds." Then you have every single person who "needs hospitalization" dying for the lack.

I mean our bounds are still very wide for this disease, but come on, man.

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07-09-2020 , 03:41 PM

#10597

filthyvermin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 60,144

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

i mostly agree. but i wouldn't say "very unrealistic"

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Around 1 in every 5 people who are infected with COVID-19 develop difficulty in breathing and require hospital care

https://www.who.int/indonesia/news/d...greater%20risk.

this was google's top answer when i googled "how many covid patients need hospitalization"

obviously the real number is hard to say. but i've heard the 20% number a lot.

i mean i don't think 60 million people are gonna die. my main point was that heard immunity is not realistic at all if we need 70-90% infected to reach it.

the black plague killed 2/3 or europe. that would be 210 million deaths in usa today. yes, we obviously have much better medicine and hygiene, but it's not unrealistic to expect an eventual catastrophic pandemic that could kill hundreds of millions, or even billions of people.