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View Poll Results: What are your coronavirus contingency plans?
I'm prepping, here's how. 76 42.22%
This coronavirus thing is not all that bad. 46 25.56%
OP is an idiot. 18 10.00%
BASTARD! 40 22.22%
Voters: 180. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-22-2020, 03:07 PM   #9351
THAY3R
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

While you can argue Sweden made the wrong decision and even that it's likely they did it's far from certain and higher current deaths were absolutely expected.

I disagree with the strat because caution when experiencing catastrophic uncertainty should be paramount.
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:13 PM   #9352
57 On Red
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post

Nobody believes that Sweden has the lowest death rate *today* by not having lockdown, that's not the issue at all whatsoever. And it's intellectually dishonest to suggest otherwise.
At the most recent count, as explained above, Sweden has *the highest daily per capita death rate in the world*.

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Old 05-22-2020, 03:27 PM   #9353
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Originally Posted by THAY3R View Post
While you can argue Sweden made the wrong decision and even that it's likely they did it's far from certain and higher current deaths were absolutely expected.

I disagree with the strat because caution when experiencing catastrophic uncertainty should be paramount.
I doubt the Swedish government expected the worst death rate in the world. No government wants that on their record.

In Manchester, England, during the 1918 H1N1 outbreak, the city shut down all public buildings and gatherings and people voluntarily restricted their movement. The city suffered about 100,000 known cases and only about 320 deaths, a bit over 3 per cent, which was good by the standards of the 1918 horror. 'Viral load' -- the number of infected people you meet and the closeness of your contact with them -- is important, and restrictive measures reduce it in most environments.
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:41 PM   #9354
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Is this real life?

BREAKING: President Trump declares churches, other houses of worship "essential".
Amen.
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:47 PM   #9355
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Originally Posted by THAY3R View Post
While you can argue Sweden made the wrong decision and even that it's likely they did it's far from certain and higher current deaths were absolutely expected.
Their argument was that lockdowns would have a "limited impact on the epidemic" and that they could get the same benefits just from voluntary changes in behavior while keeping everything open.
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:47 PM   #9356
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
Boy, that liberal Bloomberg writer really triggered you!

Rather than even address his arguments, you moved the goalposts and cherry-picked your data based on your personal definition of....'driving distance,' which seems completely retarded.

Nobody believes that Sweden has the lowest death rate *today* by not having lockdown, that's not the issue at all whatsoever. And it's intellectually dishonest to suggest otherwise.

The questions are: 1) Will Sweden be better off IN THE LONG RUN, which is unknown but worth deeply considering, and

2) Why do similar countries with lockdowns like Belgium and Holland have double the fatality rate, and approximately the same DPM?

Oh yeah, you can drive from those countries to Sweden as well. Malmo to Groningen is 7.5 hours or the same as Philly to Research Triangle which I've done dozens of times.
Antwerp is 10 hours away or Philly to Myrtle Beach which isn't even an uncommon drive in the PA/NJ area.

And then you cherry-picked even more by ignoring the data that didn't fit your worldview. Sad.

Why don't you just yell 'Fake News!' every time the facts hurt your feelings?
Ok, you can walk to them, assuming you can walk over the bridge between Denmark and Sweden.

The point is they border Sweden, which I should not have to point out, but yea I think assumptions about your geographic knowledge being **** are totally fair based on the quality of your arguments. That is what distinguishes them from Belgium, they are in the same region not ~1000KM apart.

Lol at using the word triggered, I thought only five year olds did that.

Its nothing to do with bloomberg, people have been **** posting about Sweden and its bloodbath for weeks now, Ive already quoted its terrible record compared to its neighbour countries several times itt, but still the **** comes from the usual suspects.

I at no point yelled fake news, I yelled this argument makes no rational intellectual sense, and here are the intellectual and rational reasons why, you are just throwing **** at the wall and hoping it sticks.

Why will Sweden be better off in the long run?

Norway is basically as free as Sweden now, with a lot less death.

Everything I said about the vacuum of thinking that went into that article is absolutely fair and it reflects so poorly on someone to be taken in by it.

If you cant immediately see what is wrong with this quote, just leave the room.

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The second issue is that there is surprisingly little evidence that lockdowns work. Last week, a statistician named William M. Briggs, who is solidly in the anti-lockdown camp, wrote a blog post comparing countries that locked down with countries that didn’t. As of May 12, the U.S. had 237 deaths per million people. Taiwan, a no-lockdown country, had 0.3 deaths per million. (The country has had a total of seven deaths.)
Again a comparison to Taiwan is absolutely retarded.
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Old 05-22-2020, 04:27 PM   #9357
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Ok, you can walk to them, assuming you can walk over the bridge between Denmark and Sweden.
You can't, as it happens, it's for road vehicles and trains only. There's no footway. It's about seven and a half miles and the last two and a half miles to Denmark are in a tunnel.
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Old 05-22-2020, 04:33 PM   #9358
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Over the week to 20 May, Sweden suffered the highest per capita death rate in the world at 6.08 per million per day.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...id-19-strategy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-...eden-very-high

The death toll is very heavily weighted to the over-70s and particularly the over-80s and may be well be to do with care homes and the lack of restrictions on visiting, on social distancing in all areas of society, on staff moving between different sites, on PPE and so on.

Sweden's approach does not seem to have succeeded, despite the advantage of low population density. It looks as though a similarly lax approach in more densely populated countries might well have been catastrophic.
I'm truly shocked. Being in a neighboring country with at least some lockdown. They haven't realized that a hell a lot of people will suffer and die before "herd immunity". It's mainly their chief epidemiologist's strategy. Bad luck they had him telling what to do. A confident person, but unsuited for this particular job. This is not 1920, it's 2020, in a nutshell. You need to see the potential of medical research, treatment and vaccine.

As an elderly asked in my local newspaper: "Do I need to die this spring"? Globally something to think about.

Last edited by plaaynde; 05-22-2020 at 04:58 PM.
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Old 05-22-2020, 04:43 PM   #9359
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Originally Posted by 57 On Red View Post
You can't, as it happens, it's for road vehicles and trains only. There's no footway. It's about seven and a half miles and the last two and a half miles to Denmark are in a tunnel.
Yes and to avoid such nittery is why I put in the qualifier drive to, but as you know when mentioning Norway, Finland, Denmark in relation to Sweden and then Belgium, the difference should be super duper mega apparent anyway.
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:08 PM   #9360
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

What is Trump doing opening churches? That's not safe yet and it's something that can easily be done online.

High COVID-19 Attack Rate Among Attendees at Events at a Church — Arkansas, March 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6920e2.htm

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Old 05-22-2020, 08:32 PM   #9361
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

Has herd immunity even been proven as a certain possibility at this point?

It tilts me so hard when people talk as if it’s a guarantee.
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:40 PM   #9362
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

Herd immunity is a euphemism for allowing everyone to die.
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:55 PM   #9363
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Herd immunity is a euphemism for allowing everyone to die.
Well, just let people die in peace. No one needs you trying to save everyone.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:00 PM   #9364
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Has herd immunity even been proven as a certain possibility at this point?

It tilts me so hard when people talk as if it’s a guarantee.
No one really knows the threshhold for literal herd immunity, and in fact this would depend on the amount of social contact people have in their regular lives.

But I think there’s very strong evidence at this point that partial herd immunity was a significant factor in the much more rapid decline in infection in places where >10% of the population was infected prior to lockdowns (e.g. NYC, New Orleans, Northern Italy and Madrid) compared to other urban areas.

I think natural herd immunity is a horrific “solution” that will result in the death of at least a million Americans. But organized and deliberate immunity where we careful target who will get infected and who will be protected based on vulnerability seems like the best solution to save the most lives.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:01 PM   #9365
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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What is Trump doing opening churches? That's not safe yet and it's something that can easily be done online.

God has a plan, don't ya know?
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:07 PM   #9366
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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But I think there’s very strong evidence at this point that partial herd immunity was a significant factor in the much more rapid decline in infection in places where >10% of the population was infected prior to lockdowns (e.g. NYC, New Orleans, Northern Italy and Madrid) compared to other urban areas.
Actually there's no evidence of that whatsoever and I think I speak for a lot of people when I say that we'd appreciate it if you'd stop repeating this every single time you post in the thread.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:44 PM   #9367
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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God has a plan, don't ya know?
I don't think Trump is following that plan.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:47 PM   #9368
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

Suzzer, you are right to be scared of lung damage https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...6df_story.html

But there are also a million other things to be scared of in this world and you can't stop living your life because of a 1 in 1000 chance or whatever it might be.
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:53 PM   #9369
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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Actually there's no evidence of that whatsoever and I think I speak for a lot of people when I say that we'd appreciate it if you'd stop repeating this every single time you post in the thread.
I’m replying to a specific question someone posted about evidence for herd immunity.
Why do you think all of the places with the highest infection rates have shown the steepest decline in cases and deaths?

And I don’t believe I ever mention this in the graphs that I’ve been making and posting to the thread.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:01 PM   #9370
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

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But there are also a million other things to be scared of in this world and you can't stop living your life because of a 1 in 1000 chance or whatever it might be.
Terrible, terrible take.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:18 PM   #9371
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

I might be 1 in 1000 of dying from the big rona. But we have no idea yet the prevalence of serious lung damage, organ damage, neurological damage, or any of the other potential long term issues that doctors have seen in serious cases.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:33 PM   #9372
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

The fundamental problem with telling people not to be overly concerned with 1 in 1000 is that this is at least ostensibly a poker forum and that perfect-perfect **** happens all the ****ing time.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:35 PM   #9373
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

Seems that, even with Cal State making the early call to conduct classes online in the fall, most colleges are making plans to reopen for the fall semester.

This seems like a purely economic decision. And a pretty terrible one. I was hoping colleges might follow Cal State's lead.

Reasons to wait until January:

-Legitimate chance of a vaccine by then.
-Most colleges are woefully unprepared to deal with any outbreaks on campus.
-We just conducted half a semester online, with zero preparation time or advance warning, and it for the most part went fine.
-Instead of contingency plans, colleges could focus on delivering the best possible online instruction.
-Parents and students would know in advance what to expect for the fall, instead of the current uncertainty of will they or won't they.
-Colleges will spend millions on social distancing measures that will potentially only be needed for 3 months.
-Faculty, staff, and even some students will likely die in the rush to get back one semester sooner.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:35 PM   #9374
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Re: The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

I'd snap-risk 1 in 100 chance of dying or serious damage if it meant I could get back on the road and start up my nomadic semi-retirement plans where they left off.

But what's the point of risking it when there's zero travel to be had right now? So I can hang out in a bar with a bunch of choads or sit in Cheesecake Factory?
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:42 PM   #9375
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The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat thread. What are you doing to save yourself?

Sharing for info:

Traveling into Florida today from Louisiana, FL considers LA one of 4 states that is high risk so they are stopping all cars on I-10 coming in and any plates that are LA / NY / NJ and I forget the fourth get pulled into a line where we get a paper we have to read, fill out, and sign. It says we agree to self isolate for 14 days and asks for some information. Wasn’t too bad, added some traffic to I-10 but once we got into the line it only added 20 minutes.



If we are caught breaking isolation we could get some amount (I forget, a week maybe) of jail time and a $500 fine.


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