funny when I suggested people who should stay home are people in the high risk of death group, someone then told me everyone is at risk because lung damage or whatever else, and then suzzer turns to death rate to see how good a state is doing

4/1 - 5157 (^26%)(1072 deaths)
4/2 - 6061 (^18%)(904 deaths)
4/3 - 7400 (^22%)(1339 deaths)
4/4 - 8500 (^15%)(1100 deaths)
4/5 - 9666 (^14%)(1166 deaths)
4/6 - 11,000 (^14%)(1334 deaths)
4/7 - 12,931 (^18%)(1931 deaths)
4/8 - 14,831 (^15%)(1900 deaths)
4/9 - 16,720 (^13%)(1889 deaths)
4/10 - 18,817(^13%)(2097 deaths)
4/11 - 20,650(^10%)(1833 deaths)
4/12 - 22,157(^7%)(1507 deaths)
4/13 - 23,674(^7%)(1517 deaths)
4/14 - 26,094(^10%)(2420 deaths)
4/15 - 28,605(^10%)(2511 deaths)
4/16 - 34,845(^22%)(6240 deaths)*
*-4k previous deaths tacked on
4/17 - 37,308(^7%)(2463 deaths)
4/18 - 39,116(^5%)(1808 deaths)
4/19 - 41,187(^5%)(2071 deaths)
4/20 - 42,965(^4%)(1778 deaths)
4/21 - 45,435(^6%)2470 deaths)
4/22 - 48,035(^6%)(2600 deaths)
4/23 - 50,451(^5%)(2416 deaths)
4/24 - 52,478(^4%)(2027 deaths)
4/25 - 54,177(^3%)(1699 deaths)
4/26 - 55,512(^2.5%)(1335 deaths)
4/27 - 56,722(^2%)(1210 deaths)
4/28 - 59,061(^4%)(2339 deaths)
4/29 - 61,568(^4%)(2507 deaths)
4/30 - 63,836(^3.5%)(2268 deaths)
5/1 - 65,708(^3%)(1872 deaths)
5/2 - 67,172(^2%)(1464 deaths)
5/3 - 68,390(^1.8%)(1218 deaths)
5/4 - 69,788(^2%)(1398 deaths)
5/5 - 72133(^3%)(2345 deaths)
5/6 - 74,687(3.5%)(2554 deaths)
5/7 - 76,650(2.5%)(1963 deaths)
5/8 - 78,318(^2%)(1668 deaths)
5/9 - 79,814(^2%)(1498 deaths)
5/10 - 80,605(^1%)(791 deaths)
5/11 - 81,612(^1%)(1007 deaths)
5/12 - 83,200(^2%)(1588 deaths)
5/13 - 84,934(^2%)(1734 deaths)
5/14 - 86,701(^2%)(1767 deaths)
5/15 - 88,352(^2%)(1651 deaths)
5/16 - 89,549(1.3%)(1197 deaths)

Interesting discussion on The Argument (NY Times) podcast, about people searching for underlying conditions whenever someone dies of COVID. Like, we hear about a young person dying, and we look to see if they are obese, or to see if they ever had any type of illness that could explain it, etc. Mainly to convince ourselves that it won't happen to us, that there was some underlying reason that doesn't apply to us.

I guess it's a natural psychological reaction, I'm probably guilty of this myself. That is not to say staying healthy is not important and won't help fight off the virus, but I do think there is an element of randomness or genetics involved that we do not understand yet, regarding why some seemingly healthy people can die while others never even know they had it.

LOL's ideal buffet consists entirely of apples and broccoli. No plates, food is put in something that more or less resembles a feedbag.

I find this interesting because it took one day every other Tuesday to drop below Tuesday numbers (i.e. Thursday was always lower than Tuesday) but this week it took until Saturday. Not sure what it means, I would assume something to do with the size of the country and New York skewing early numbers

here is a pretty good, but very very long article about ny and ca different responses to the pandemic.

cliffs: cuomo botched it badly

and an excerpt

https://www.propublica.org/article/t...-as-california

that novel length article detailing cuomo's blunders ends with an infuriating quote from cuomo

I firmly believe we'd curtail the pandemic with Larry Legend in charge.

Cuomo comparing his response to Italy, one of the worst hit nations, what a tool.

https://www.livescience.com/why-covi...me-people.html

California’s response may have seemed better at the time, but we definitely cannot conclude that it has worked better. Cases and deaths in CA have not dropped at all, compared to NY, where those indicators have all dropped 80%-90%. NY has a lot more deaths now, but we have no idea what the numbers will look like in 6 months. And while NY seems to have a detailed plan for imminent reopening, there’s absolutely no end in sight for the lockdowns in CA.

it blows my mind so many people think he's doing a great job

Is any place in the US even close to that level of containment/contact-tracing? Seems kinda harsh to judge CA on a standard of not being Germany of S. Korea or whatever - even though their numbers are better than more than half the states.

You can use case rate just as easily. Or hospitalization rate. Or whatever rate you want.

Yeah, I don’t think it is unique to California at all. It is really an indictment of the US strategy across the country.

The patterns we are seeing in California are mirrored in many other states. We have really only seen the virus significantly reduced in two limited categories of states: (a) sparsely populated rural states that never had a significant outbreak to begin with, and (b) four or five states whose outbreak was severe enough prior to implementing the lockdown that they had already achieved partial herd immunity. It seems very unlikely that CA will even find themselves in the first category.

over here in quebec we did the lockdown fairly early, we still have worse numbers than sweden, go figure

that's true! but if the numbers for ny end up being better or even close to ca, it won't be because cuomo's plan was to kill 20k people in a month and hope things got better from there.

No one’s plan is to kill tens of thousands of their citizens. But that’s the likely result from almost every state’s plan. It just happened much earlier in NY because their outbreak was already much more pervasive at the time the lockdown was implemented. But once it has reached a certain threshold, it appears the virus cannot be stopped by the lockdowns, only slowed. It is only stopped once we add immunity.

We are going to kill a million people whether we lockdown early, lockdown late, or stay completely open; it’s just a matter of time. If we want to save a million lives, all sides need to get over their status quo bias and be open to a completely different strategy.

Based solely on my own observation, demographic differences on mask usage and social distancing in NYC seem quite stark. People in the 18-25 demographic are far less likely to be wearing masks than older residents, and much more likely to be hanging out with friends in parks or other public spaces. Unsurprisingly, the relaxation of rules on public drinking has been very popular with younger residents. Also, mask usage in orthodox religious communities seems very low compared to more secular communities.

This seems a little...criminal:

Ignore the charts on GA's home page - just look at the raw #s here - https://covidtracking.com/data/state/georgia

300 new hospitalizations yesterday. Might be a blip/reclassification or something - or might be a bad sign.

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

Edit: Maybe I take it back. The guy got elected via voter suppression. This is right up his alley.

It's hard to imagine this chart is the result of pure stupidity alone. Look at the X-axis.

And of course it achieved the desired result and spread like wildfire through right wing circles:

I've seen "Georgia's #s are plummeting" all over Facebook.

Even the chart on their home page is BS:



Apparently they've somehow set it up so that the last 14-days most of the cases aren't confirmed - so it always looks like the numbers are plummeting.

That's why I just go straight to the raw #s - which at least covidtracking.com rates A+ data source. My hope is conscientious people in GA state govt are allowing the fudge-chart to keep Kemp happy, but still cranking out honest #s.



The bottom line is you can only fudge the real numbers for so long if/until an Italy-level hospital crunch happens. You can't hide that, at least in the US - it will be all over the news. This is the only reason we shut down the first time. We'd have dozens of N. Italy's all over the US if we didn't.

So there may be incentive for them to fudge the numbers a little, but if internally they can see a hospital crunch coming - there's no point going to great lengths to lie about the #s.

Of course we do have more ventilators now.

I agree. This chart pretty much screams "technically accurate but deliberately misleading."

When you hold your press conference right before trump everyday it’s really easy to look like you are doing a better job than you are.