dude, you found it in a thread explicitly talking about it being fake nonsense people share on facebook, c'mon man

Bergamo tested 61% positive for antibodies...based on this obvious no brainer is to let 'er rip everywhere as herd immunity achieved in about six weeks.

IHME model is such a joke. Newest update (4/29) actually adjusted down projected US deaths from 74k to 72k. I hope no one is still making meaningful decisions based on this.

That's kinda bad, we are gonna hit 72k next week. Even the model that is predicting 100k by end of summer I feel is too little.

What I don't understand with the IHME is their uncertainty interval. It has the upper deaths at ~115k but the interval is so one sided. Are they using a median projection for their dashed line and just have a couple outliers up top?

The IHME stuff is awful. If they get government money is should be withdrawn immediately. There are about 63K deaths now and they project 73K by August 4th.

You could put a pair of 10 year olds' together and give them worldometer.com, sesamestreet.com, and thedisneychannel.com and they would tell you that 73K people in the USA will be dead from COVID by next week - the first week in May!!!!!

What I don't get is how a group of scientists and statisticians can ethically even keep the COVID projections part of their website. It is insanely irresponsible, and I doubt you would find one person who works there who actually believes that only 10K more people will die between now and Aug 4th.

I'd be curious to know who they are accountable to. They are part of the University of Washington (or at least housed there) and wiki says the Gates foundation gave them over 100M in 2007.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Their model is programmed to assume that the curve is symmetrical and that all states are definitely below 1 R, so therefore the model thinks we're guaranteed to cruise right back to 0 deaths. Therefore it gets more and more certain as the numbers get closer to 0 because it's not programmed to even consider the possibility of anything else happening.

I haven't followed gov't models, but that is just sad.

Except the Federal Gov't.

Just call it what it is.... the trumpometer! (updates when absolutely necessary)

Incorrect.

The presymptomatic phase can last for up to two weeks.

The symptomatic phase can last for a few weeks. Although this doesn't take into account those stories (like the recent post) about having it come back.

So that means that in the extreme cases, a person can be pre-synptomatic and then symptomatic for a total of 5 weeks. And that person is potentially contagious any time during that 5 weeks.

Add on top of that a few extra weeks of people infecting those they live with, and you're at a couple months.

Example: when the quarantines began mid March, a husband and wife work at home and the husband is presymptomatic. They're not quarantining from each other. He ends up infecting her during week 2. She is now at day 1 of her own infection.

Technically, if we take the most extreme example, say a person doesn't infect the other person until week 5, then it could be a total of 10 weeks before we can guarantee that they're now both not contagious.

Of course, that's an extreme and highly unlikely scenario, especially if we consider that practically speaking, if two people are living together, it's much much more likely that one will infect the other earlier in the infection than during week 5, especially since once the first person becomes symptomatic, they are more likely to quarantine from each other, or at least take more precautions.

But in a country of 330 million, there will be enough of those unlikely cases that it would take 10 weeks to fully stamp it out.

Now, the whole country wouldn't have to be on lockdown for 10 weeks. For those who catch it but have an asymptomatic case, they're good to un-quarantine after 2 weeks. So technically, some things could have opened back up after just a few weeks had we STARTED with a synchronized, nationwide extreme lockdown.

Wuhan which was full blown epidemic was only locked down for 76 days, the rest of the country was under lockdown for 2 months

other neighboring countries only had brief and localized lockdowns

4/1 - 5157 (^26%)(1072 deaths)
4/2 - 6061 (^18%)(904 deaths)
4/3 - 7400 (^22%)(1339 deaths)
4/4 - 8500 (^15%)(1100 deaths)
4/5 - 9666 (^14%)(1166 deaths)
4/6 - 11,000 (^14%)(1334 deaths)
4/7 - 12,931 (^18%)(1931 deaths)
4/8 - 14,831 (^15%)(1900 deaths)
4/9 - 16,720 (^13%)(1889 deaths)
4/10 - 18,817(^13%)(2097 deaths)
4/11 - 20,650(^10%)(1833 deaths)
4/12 - 22,157(^7%)(1507 deaths)
4/13 - 23,674(^7%)(1517 deaths)
4/14 - 26,094(^10%)(2420 deaths)
4/15 - 28,605(^10%)(2511 deaths)
4/16 - 34,845(^22%)(6240 deaths)*
*-4k previous deaths tacked on
4/17 - 37,308(^7%)(2463 deaths)
4/18 - 39,116(^5%)(1808 deaths)
4/19 - 41,187(^5%)(2071 deaths)
4/20 - 42,965(^4%)(1778 deaths)
4/21 - 45,435(^6%)2470 deaths)
4/22 - 48,035(^6%)(2600 deaths)
4/23 - 50,451(^5%)(2416 deaths)
4/24 - 52,478(^4%)(2027 deaths)
4/25 - 54,177(^3%)(1699 deaths)
4/26 - 55,512(^2.5%)(1335 deaths)
4/27 - 56,722(^2%)(1210 deaths)
4/28 - 59,061(^4%)(2339 deaths)
4/29 - 61,568(^4%)(2507 deaths)
4/30 - 63,836(^3.5%)(2268 deaths)

Still 2k deaths.

How would people even know they have an asymptomatic case? Are you saying anyone who doesn’t have symptoms within two weeks (whether actually infected or not) could unquarantine?

The solution to just infect all the young and healthy people and quarantine only the vulnerable population sounds much easier to me than a two-month complete lockdown of everyone.

Americans have a hard time admitting that China is better governed than the USA (despite being run by gangsters).

Extreme levels of authoritarianism, which allows for greater control of behavior, doesn't make China better at governing. One side has greater pandemic control, massive censorship, massive repression, and runs over protesters with tanks. The other side has the opposite. I'll take the other side.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=gtH5jIdf

'Moderna Inc., one of the leaders among U.S. companies developing experimental vaccines against the coronavirus, entered a pact with Lonza Group AG aimed at manufacturing 1 billion doses a year.'

China still reporting zero deaths at Tiananmen Square.

off topic but you guys talking about tiananmen should watch this pbs documentary - tons of misinformation and misunderstanding over what actually happened

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2


so in the end it's like a severe flu season?

But it started out so intelligent and believable. I mean as per nature, temperature is different in different countries. Therefore all pandemics are man-made. That's just science.

Virus is killing or massively sickening some significant % based on age or underlying conditions. Of those not aged or co-morbid it is, because it is so novel, freaking the immune system of some very small percentage of healthy and youthful. ??

But we have no idea what those percentages are because we have no idea what the actual infection rate is. Many suspect of course that some 10 to 50 times the incidence of reported cases are actually infected, but this effect should be dropping due to ramped up testing and distance/isolating. Thus making the percentages very low but raw totals high of course. Is that making sense?

Same here in India.

They've locked down Delhi/Mumbai. All state to state movement is 0 except for goods.

They've divided the country into 3 zones depending on cases, and will open the zones with the most amount of cases last..

India couldn't really afford to gamble with herd immunity.

Just in the last week or so, we have developed a much better idea about how high the infection rate is, and by extension how high the IFR is, due to higher quality serology studies.

Most notably, the official NY State serology study touted by Gov. Cuomo found that about 25% of the NYC population had been infected reporting on April 27. This places the IFR at around 0.6%, which is very similar to estimates derived in the Geneva serology study or the Berkeley Italian death records study.

It definitely can't be as low as 0.1% among the overall population, because there are fairly large areas where more than 0.1% of the entire population has died. But it is almost certainly much less than 0.1% among healthy people under 50.

Yep, I'm flying up to Alaska from the lower 48 and will have to undergo a mandatory 14 day quarantine.

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Can you hook me up with a source for this information, please?

I was talking about this and related questions on a conference call this week with a pretty diverse group of attorneys, including some con law folks from the ACLU who thought the questions were pretty layered because of all the ancient quarantine cases.

Also, to the people still arguing for flu-like 0.1% IFR, that ship has long sailed. There is no longer a reasonable case for those kind of arguments. There is a province in Bergamo where more than 0.5% of the entire population has now died of COVID. Additionally, evidence strongly suggests that there are deaths that should have been included in the total that were not attributed to the population (that particular province has seen almost 1% of their population die of all causes in the last 3 months). There is no longer any possibility of an IFR anywhere near flu. Most people studying this are settling on a number in the 0.8% range. (one source of many, many, many)

I honestly don't know why US hasn't gone for it. Because the moment one state gets on top of it and relaxes restrictions, all the sick people are going to go there and make it worse. So they can sit at a hair salon and get their nails done or go to a bar and drink beer.