i think it's clear by now that the people who advocated a certain position before there was data are now arguing the same positions with data

i'm not trying to single out anyone or any side of lockdown debate

i'm just asking that we cut it out, everyone knows how everyone else feels a dozen of your own posts ago, finding some new data point that in your mind further shows your thesis to be the correct one is just continuation of tether ball at this point

let's try to keep this to genuinely new information and opinions instead of the same dozen people with their "today i found this that says why I'm right"

@najdorf, this honestly isn't meant as a snipe to you despite that it may appear that way following your post

Sorry dude . I own 3 properties and room the earth free af. What are u on? It’s a nothing burger rn where I live. Life has resumed and resumed rapidly. Not only are people not dying, they are not getting sick.
Our peak season population swells from 350k to at least double that and we are averaging 6 cases a day. It has nothing to do w those other diseases. Get asex partner or 5 mate.

I was a hard lockdown advocate and a major critic of bowling ball Brian. I thought all the people pouring in to their second homes from MA PA NY NJ CONN would bring down the house it didn’t. I thought Easter Sunday would thin the heard it didn’t. I’ve battled the “hoaxers” on SM for 2 months.

We had a half ass lockdown, single digit mask wearing and virtually no social distancing and my tourist driven county is at 287/18.

I’m not saying it’s not real or a hoax because I have 2 sisters , 2 nieces and 2 exes that are in covid19 sheet up to their ears in hospitals in and around Boston. One is 62 and DOES NOT need to be there but feels like she has to be. Idk RickRoll I just wish the powers that be were down here putting some effort into the “ why haven’t they “ category.

It may be too early to tell, prolly is, but something has inadvertently caused this thing to be have little adverse effects on us here. That doesn’t infer I’m insensitive to other areas, just that it makes no sense for In a good way.

Please stop acting like I'm defending the study. There was no scientific consensus at the time, as the 538 poll of epidemiologists indicated, mostly because there was no good info on the undetected case ratio. That said, I never said that scientists were claiming 4%, nor that the study accomplished anything positive, so if you would stop attacking strawmen, I'd appreciate it.

What I said was that I stand by my assessment that people who talked at that time about their favorite vision of IFR, death toll probabilities, etc. as though they were reliable were FOS. including those who tried to model based on that study and people who tried to model based on their interpretations of Italy.

Something like everybody staying home for several weeks before the cases had multiplied very much?

???????

Not sure what you're confused about, but the strawmen I asked you to stop attacking were that I claimed that the study in question was positive, or that any scientists were claiming 4% IFR.

As for your theory that there was an established scientific consensus at the time, even back then I posted counter-examples to that on both sides.

I get the feeling that you think I am interested in cherry-picking data in order to support proposed policies, but that is not the case. I have long been asking for more testing so that we can get reliable numbers (they're getting better, but they still vary a lot) and for people to stop arguing absolutes based off their favorite (and usually misinterpreted) numbers in the meantime.

Im always suspicious of people who claim(ed) to be position X, but every actual positive point they make is a massive rallying call for position Y.

A certain poster is doing that A LOT itt.

Rick, it is salience.

Soah, I’m not sure what that graph is supposed to be telling me but this area did anything but stay at home . Home Depot’s , beaches and golf courses were packed packed. 15-20 % of bars and restaurants stayed operational to a degree ( windowless sections for regulars etc)

25%. The unemployment rate in your county. That ties the unemployment rate during the Great Depression.

70. The amount of days schools in your county have been closed down.

Sure, people are probably out picking up supplies and takeout food. You’re downplaying the measures that have been taken.

My wife got her first jury summons since I've known her (going on 17 years)...like who the hell wants to deliberate during a pandemic? Is this even being done? I wouldn't even want to go to the assembly room

What state?

I freely admit that I'm not even a rookie when it comes to the finer points of the LOL diet and buffets. So, would you mind elaborating?

Nick,

Care to expand on why this isn't currently the case. I'm honestly not saying what you believe to be the case isn't true. IMO, like the article says, its still too early to know until we've studied it further.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...cid=spartandhp

CA - I should have checked the website beforehand, but jury trials are currently suspended, albeit only through June 12. Can't imagine how sitting elbow-to-elbow with another person in a jury box for 3-4 hours at a time can be remotely safe.

Fair enough.

Carrots reduced in a brown sugar honey glaze sauce look like carrots, but they're just sugary junk food with the nutritional value cooked out of them - no better than "veggie" potato chips from Walmart and likely worse. That's okay, we'll head to the corn... nope, it's slathered in a stick of butter and an intussusception worth of cheese. Potatoes...? Nope, swimming in mayonnaise and egg.

I could go on, but I digress. Maybe amazin will bump the vegan thread and we can go from there, but I don't think he's vegan anymore, or maybe he's just figured out how to chill, dunno.

After running at 100 new hospitalizations for a few days in a row, Georgia had 350 new hospitalizations today. That could be a bad sign. Sundays usually don't get reported well, so I'll be watching Monday and Tuesday very closely.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/georgia (GA lists a few more on their main site)

Sometimes it's just a data bump because they went back and tested old cases or reclassified something.

It will be interesting to see what the next week or so brings. I'm in no rush; I don't mind the control groups testing the waters for me.

I would definitely distinguish between the argument that a positive antibody test implies futures immunity and the argument that being infected once implies future immunity.

I'm certainly willing to accept that a lot of the antibody tests may have flaws, and none of these tests are likely to be completely perfect. So it is possible for a person who has never been infected in the first place to register a false positive, and we should certainly be trying to improve the reliability of our tests, use only the most proven tests, and test people multiple times when possible.

With respect to the second argument, I do rather strongly believe that being infected renders you immune to reinfection for some reasonable length of time. We can't at this point know how long the immunity lasts, but we can be pretty sure it is several months and have read most scientists believe it is at least two years.

We cannot prove deductively that this is true. Just like if you give someone a vaccine, observe them for a few months, and they don't get infected, you haven't proven the vaccine is effective. But if you give enough people the vaccine and no one gets infected, you can start to feel pretty confident that it is working. We've had almost 5 million people test positive for the virus, and have seen no confirmed examples of independent reinfection.

On top of this, we have the many studies observing antibodies (over 99.5% of people known to be infected were later found to have antibodies in one study), and tests by Chinese scientists on monkeys (where they tried but always failed to reinfect monkeys who had previously has the virus).

So, for people doubting immunity given what we know so far, I have a question: How are you ever going to trust any vaccine trial?

Given our accelerated trial protocols and procedures, any vaccine that appears effective is going to be approved based on far less direct and indirect evidence than the accumulated evidence we already have for immunity.

I thought this article in Vox today was especially interesting. It describes the failure of the very early and strict lockdowns in California to suppress the spread of the virus and death toll in that state.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...cases-lockdown

The most important part IMO is the last section, where is discusses why lockdowns appear to be succeeding in New York and New Jersey (and I would say, by extension, Italy and Spain) where they have failed in California and several other states:

It seems like the only solution, once we have passed the point of individual contact tracing, is a combination of social distancing restriction AND partial herd immunity.

The evidence seems to show this doesn't need to be the complete herd immunity of 60-70% that many have suggested, if this factor is able to work in conjunction with social distancing. It appears that a 10%-20% infection rate may be sufficient to dramatically slow the virus. The focus now needs to be on how to efficiently achieve this infection rate while minimizing death and serious health consequences. We can't just wait for hundreds of thousands more people to die with so little to show for it.

Most buffets also have endless salad. As many raw veggies as you can put down. Probably not a great value, but you don't strike me as that sensitive to cost. Even then, there are salad only buffets (e.g. Souper Salad) which are appropriately priced. What's the problem with those?

How has California failed when their death rate per capita is bottom below average?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...s-us-by-state/

For having two fairly densely packed metro areas I'd say that's doing pretty good.

I’ll just quote from the article:

But when they cut salad ingredients into bite-sized pieces all of the nutrition falls out. It is no different than cooking removing nutrition.

Also, the mere placement of vegetables near jello and pudding decreases their nutritional value.