Thanks. I kinda brushed her off, I rarely take anything unless I feel really bad, certainly not as a preemptive kinda thing. I'll probably take your advice unless it's just real bad. My second shingles shot kicked my ass and I ended up taking some advil in the middle of the night. We'll see.

Looks like you have the right idea:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...ccine-n1256896

I'd heard about this previously but never gave it much thought (mainly because I am in no where close to getting a shot). With two kids under 10, it would likely be wise for my wife and I to stagger our second shot by a week (whenever the hell that might be).

Nobody i know has been sick for more than 48 hours for whatever that's worth.

I'll take any positive news, even if there is still a long ways to go on vaccination. Also saw what seemed like a credible analysis this weekend that suggested that vaccine supply will meet or exceed demand as soon as April. I assume that is based on the J&J vax coming online.

Had my first dose of the Oxford vaccine on Saturday afternoon, and was all super efficient at the centre. I was in and out in super quickly.

There was a queue at the front entrance of the health centre, but as I had my wheelchair she told me to go around the back and she would let me in the exit. Guess there are some perks

Had a bad headache and fluey aches/pains Saturday night, but slept for 12 hours and felt a lot better Sunday, other than the residual headache.

Slept another 10 last night, and feel almost 100% today. I normally struggle to sleep, so maybe I should try and get some of whatever is in there on the regular!

Is that one a two dose regimen also? I was happy to have been pushing gma in her wheelchair when we got ours, we skipped a pretty long line.

Yeah, 2nd dose in 12 weeks. Said I'll get a text sometime before that to book it in, and same procedure as the first.

It was pretty cold here on Saturday, and the queue was all outside. Definitely glad I didn't have to sit outside in that, and then again while waiting to be picked up.

The number of people hospitalized for c-19 has gone down over the last week from 95,000 to 81,000. Of course, that's at least in part because 23,000 people died over that same period, some number of which were hospitalized. But the number of new cases is continuing to drop, which suggests those hospitalization numbers aren't likely to turn in the other direction. Vaccination numbers also seem to be going up and are running around 2M/day at this point.

Although I broadly agree with your general conclusions, these percentages badly mistake the actual facts. In the case of AZ, for instance, a quoted efficiency of 70% does not mean that 30% of the people are expected to get sick. It means that in their study, 30% of the people who got sick in their study population received the vaccine. In other words, you'd expect the number of people catching the disease to be cut in thirds. 100% of the people were never going to catch the virus, probably more like 60-70% (primarily due to herd immunity effects). Additionally, some number have already caught it and are immune, so the total population likely to catch it is already only down say 10% to 50-60% of the population. If they were all vaccinated overnight, maybe 30% of THAT group would get sick, which is more like 15-20% of the population.

With the 95% effective vaccines, that number is probably under 1% of the people who get the vaccine would get sick. This changes somewhat the slower we reach herd immunity and the slower the vaccine is rolled out because the virus is evolving. But the key point is that a vaccine that is 70% effective does not mean 30% of the people who get the shot will catch COVID.

Banging on one of my usual drums, "effectiveness" in trials so far is measure against getting the virus -- not against chances of either hospitalization or death. So a vaccine that is 50 per cent effective may be much more effective against getting a serious case.

If you get a shot by hoping there'll be some left in the bottle and your number gets called, how do you go about getting your second? DO you make an appointment for the second one when getting the initial shot or are you hoping to get lucky twice within a certain time period?

Seems like any remotely competent organization is going to make sure they have enough doses in the freezer to cover 2nds for all the firsts, so I would expect you'd get an appointment card for the 2nd. But I have no firsthand knowledge.

The answer would be different if the official strategy was to just get as many first jabs as possible, but I dunno if anyone decided to do that.

Our process was: check in, get shot, make next appointment, sit around for 20 minutes so they can make sure you don't pass out.

Not absolutely sure, but IIRC there's another difference too in that AZ were actively testing participants for Covid, thus hopefully catching asymptomatic cases. Whereas the Pfizer / Moderna trials were not, instead relying on patients developing symptoms and then requesting a test.

Any thoughts here when we will be back to normal or nah? I agree with you that the thought of normal in summer 21 is very foolish. I’m 31 yo male that had Covid and wonder when I will be able to get the vaccine (haven’t really researched it but feel it’s going to be a very long time). Also what is it going to be like when we do get back to normal? I might just be a dolt but I feel online dating will pickup due to this hold period. I’m currently working from home and even wonder when I’ll be in the office. It has been super odd to work from home for 11months now. I never would have expected to be home so long but it’s worked quite well so far. I feel like going back into an office is going to be so odd.



I really miss the poker tournament scene in the northeast. I’m still very shocked not one casino has offered mtts (not daily’s but semi big gtn festivals) in the northeast as I feel they would most likely do quite well now with the lack of offering in the northeast (I’ll get ripped for offering this thought but I feel poker can be done in a safe manner with plexiglass + hand sanitizing).

Why wouldn’t things be back to normal by the summer? Fauci said on Meet the Press on Sunday that he expects vaccine supply to be able to fully meet demand by April based on the forthcoming J&J approval. So really I’d expect the virus to be basically eradicated in the US about a month after that.

How are people still going on about hand sanitizing as making things like poker tournaments safe? It's been clear for months that the vast majority of Covid transmission is airborne droplets and that surface (fomite) transmission is rare.

I agree, but I was at Venetian for a Vegas trip and they made everyone hand sanitize. The plexiglass also made it feel really safe Along with the fact people were wearing masks. Not going to lie, I found it really obnoxious that some people would let mask drop below their nose randomly and not when say drinking/eating.

If everyone else is following the rules, why can’t you just keep the mask over your nose at all times.

Btw sure maybe we are ok by summer but I even felt the belief in feb/March was its not coming to the US. I’m hopeful but I think it’s best to expect the worst honestly.

Hand sanitizer is basically just precaution theater at this point.

I still have hand sanitizer in the car pretty much only because I want to use it immediately after touching the mask I've just taken off when I get back in, just in case the mask worked and caught some creepycrawlies. I'm so glad it turned out that fomite transmission isn't a thing. Waiting to open mail/packages for 3 days plus washing groceries was such a huge kick in the balls.

I'd word it more strongly. Not may be much more effective, but will be much more effective. The evidence is pretty overwhelming.

Once you have received your first dose, you get priority access to the second dose. So far, supply of the vaccine has been increasing steadily, so there are always enough doses to give everyone a second shot as well as start some people with their first. That may eventually not be true, but right now it is.

Well, the point at which supply meets demand is not necessarily the point at which everyone or even 70% of everyone has gotten the shot. We'll have some period where they are trying to convince people who have a variety of dumb ideas to get the shot. It will be very interesting to see what percentage of the population simply refuses to be vaccinated. If it is high enough, the disease will continue for some time, maybe forever.

I guess at some point there will come a time where we say that anyone who isn't vaccinated has chosen not to be vaccinated and there is no reason why everyone else should take precautions to protect people who refuse to protect themselves. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. Businesses could require their employees to get the vaccine as a condition of employment or refuse customers who can't prove they have been vaccinated. I could imagine it as a condition of air travel, for example. It will very likely be a condition of foreign travel. Schools can refuse to admit students who aren't vaccinated, stuff like that.

To be fair, it probably plays a significant role in reducing the transmission of many other diseases, so I'm cool with it.

Do doses 1 and 2 differ chemically?

Seems like I've read people saying #2 hit them harder than #1. Didn't think to ask if it due to different composition or what.