Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
This guy tweets like an erratic woman, but I'm assuming his stats are real:
45% of Indian variant deaths in U.K. at least one vaccine dose
29% of Indian variant deaths in U.K. fully vaccinated
The escape variants are here.
Something like 97 percent of the vulnerable population of the UK is vaxxed. If the 1/33 which isn't is making up two thirds of the hospitalizations and the 32/33 which is vaccinated is making up one third of the hospitalizations. So 1/66 of the number we'd expect if they were unvaxxed. Those back of envelope calculations mean protection from Delta is about 98-99 percent.
The death stats, by similar method, give us 97 percent protection, but include "deaths with" not just "deaths from" so also positive cases who have car accidents. I wasn't one to wave away thousands of excess deaths as "deaths with not from", but that will be true for at least some out of this few dozen in a country of 60 million people. Everything else we've seen in the last year relating to protection has the efficacy against infection less than efficacy against hospitalization, and efficacy against hospitalization less than efficacy against death.
I don't expect this is really an exception.
Quote:
Originally Posted by that_pope
It is rather small sample of 42 deaths.
It's about the same size as the initial samples that were used for vaccine efficacy. Results like 29-3 for infections on the first 32 infections were impressive when you start with equal numbers of vaccinated and unvaccinated. The current UK numbers are also impressive when you start with 30 times as many vulnerable vaccinated as vulnerable unvaccinated.