Quote:
Originally Posted by waterwolves
Holy ****. We're likely to lose hundreds of thousands of people.........
There are 10M people in LA county. If this is really a 2% mortality rate and every single person gets infected and sick, then 200k are deep-sixed.
That number is meaningless because we don't know how many cases are asymptomatic, we don't know how many cases are people who got sick and didn't report, we don't know how many people never carried this virus, and we don't know how many of the people getting sick are in a high-risk group.
That's a ton of variables, so there's no way to say X amount of people will die. At best, we can use similar populations from other cities and do some ratios, but then again, it's not snowing here, so who can say what the transmission rate will be in our weather?
We currently have 53 confirmed cases and 1 death. Seven days ago, we had 11 deaths in the US and there are presently 41 deaths.
It's hard to say because, even last week, they were able to track the origins of a lot of cases. It's well into community spread now (unable to track the origin), so it's probably going to get pretty bad soon. It's just a question of how bad.
I'm a betting man (obv), but I'd be fool to take any over/under in LA.