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The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN.
View Poll Results: What are your coronavirus contingency plans?
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This coronavirus thing is not all that bad.
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03-14-2020 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck Bass
I'm almost embarrassed to ask this because this sounds like such a panic mode post -- not really asking for myself but just speculating, also I know nothing about medicine or how the human body works, so this is a complete noob level question.

Anyway, based on what I've gathered, the main issue that's killing people when they get COVID19 seems to be lack of oxygen, I guess related to pneumonia or whatever. When you read reports from Italy etc, all of them say how doctors have to make decisions about who to give the oxygen tanks, and the ones left without die etc.

My question is basically this: Are there any products out there or some DIY stuff that could help a little bit there? Yes, I realize you can't use an asthma inhaler and have it work like an ICU oxygen tank. But is there something that could maybe have the tiniest of effects here? Like let's say patient x has serious issues breathing because of COVID19-related pneumonia or whatever but doesn't have access to ICU, is there an invention in the world that could help a bit?

Again I realize what a dumb question this must be, but to a complete noob it would seem like if a hospital ICU level assisted breathing machine's effect is 10/10, maybe there would be some lesser inventions where the effect would be say 2/10, which would still be better than 0/10?

***

And another question, I was following this fairly closely even when it was just in Wuhan, and back then they were saying they're using HIV meds to treat the worst cases with pretty good results. Obv not a vaccine, not a cure against COVID19, but to help the immune system or something which to a noob sounds kinda reasonable given that both COVID19 and the HIV do their best to murder your immunity system and thus it would seem like those meds at least can't hurt. Whatever happened to that? Was it ruled out that they aren't actually working at all?
a) stuff like oxygen masks already exist. A ventilator is for when you can't breathe on your own; they use positive pressure to force air into your lungs. This has to be extremely precise because it's very easy to destroy lungs and kill you. Your lungs usually work by negative pressure.

b) Most HIV meds cannot possibly work. HIV is a retrovirus, meaning that it contains RNA but forces your cell to reverse-transcribe that RNA into DNA. Your body does not ever do that (central dogma is DNA->RNA->protein) so we can target and completely block reverse transcriptase enzymes to stop HIV. Coronaviruses are not retroviruses so this has no hope of working.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by offTopic
Several years. MLY is a Treesong, it's all coming together now.

LOL, nice one.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 06:38 PM
7 min. video, don't know if anyone posted it. Came out yesterday.

'Don't believe the numbers you see': Johns Hopkins professor says up to 500,000 Americans have coronavirus

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marty...183558545.html
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 06:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck Bass
I'm almost embarrassed to ask this because this sounds like such a panic mode post -- not really asking for myself but just speculating, also I know nothing about medicine or how the human body works, so this is a complete noob level question.

Anyway, based on what I've gathered, the main issue that's killing people when they get COVID19 seems to be lack of oxygen, I guess related to pneumonia or whatever. When you read reports from Italy etc, all of them say how doctors have to make decisions about who to give the oxygen tanks, and the ones left without die etc.

My question is basically this: Are there any products out there or some DIY stuff that could help a little bit there? Yes, I realize you can't use an asthma inhaler and have it work like an ICU oxygen tank. But is there something that could maybe have the tiniest of effects here? Like let's say patient x has serious issues breathing because of COVID19-related pneumonia or whatever but doesn't have access to ICU, is there an invention in the world that could help a bit?

Again I realize what a dumb question this must be, but to a complete noob it would seem like if a hospital ICU level assisted breathing machine's effect is 10/10, maybe there would be some lesser inventions where the effect would be say 2/10, which would still be better than 0/10?

***

And another question, I was following this fairly closely even when it was just in Wuhan, and back then they were saying they're using HIV meds to treat the worst cases with pretty good results. Obv not a vaccine, not a cure against COVID19, but to help the immune system or something which to a noob sounds kinda reasonable given that both COVID19 and the HIV do their best to murder your immunity system and thus it would seem like those meds at least can't hurt. Whatever happened to that? Was it ruled out that they aren't actually working at all?

1, Short answer is no. Things like asthma inhalers are just bronchodilators and will not help at all. You could use an oxygen mask to relieve some of the early onset symptoms, but when it comes to life or death you NEED ventilation, which is always done in ICU. It is not really tanks as such at that stage, they are either intubated or put on so called ECMOs.

Generally speaking if you are healthy, have no underlying conditions and are below 60 you should not have anything to worry about, there are people who recovered who had no symptoms at all. The average age in Italy for deaths for example are 80.1.

2, The AIDS medicine part is heavily debatable. Even if it would work (it doesnt but thats another question), it is an extremely expensive medicine and would not be available in such large quantities. Our best hope is that the virus dies down with quarantine and that they develop and release a vaccine within 12-18 months.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 06:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parisron
7 min. video, don't know if anyone posted it. Came out yesterday.

'Don't believe the numbers you see': Johns Hopkins professor says up to 500,000 Americans have coronavirus

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marty...183558545.html
February 26th

Donald J. Trump: "When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

Thanks Trumpers! You've helped expose to the world the real **** hole country.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:04 PM
If a lot more people have Coronavirus than is being reported the death rate should be a lot lower than is being reported right now too right?
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 27offsuit
suzz two days ago called, they want their multiple posts back.
Sorry 2 days feels like 2 weeks and I forget what was posted where.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntanygd760
They actually took measures to stop it, extreme measures compared to us.
In the lockdown cities in China, one person per household can go outside once a week for groceries. If you’re caught on the street w/o your stamp for that week you get arrested. The stamps have patriotic slogans about everyone doing their part.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parisron
7 min. video, don't know if anyone posted it. Came out yesterday.

'Don't believe the numbers you see': Johns Hopkins professor says up to 500,000 Americans have coronavirus

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marty...183558545.html
This was obvious right from the start. When we had 6 people dying in Washington from a virus that takes 20 days to kill, it was obvious that it had already been all over the west coast for weeks.

As always 2p2 was far ahead of the rest of the world. If he had any power we could have saved so many Sklanskyviruses.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterwolves
If a lot more people have Coronavirus than is being reported the death rate should be a lot lower than is being reported right now too right?
Right, there's an inflection point when having more infections than reported becomes a good thing.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:18 PM
At least he says he thinks it will be over in 2 or 3 months like all the other horrible viruses.
Doesn't seem like it but one could only hope.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OneOut
There seems to be quite a bit of skepticism in the comments that this is legitimate, which would be good news.

More optimistically, it seems New York has around 500 infected, but has only reported one death (an 80+ year-old with emphysema), while New Jersey is reporting around 70 with one (50s with prior complications), possibly two deaths (they aren't sure if the second is related or not).
****. Maybe it is fake.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterwolves
If a lot more people have Coronavirus than is being reported the death rate should be a lot lower than is being reported right now too right?
Yes, I believe this is true. According to what I posted upthread about the congressional hearing with Dr. Fauci (legit guy), people are either asymptomatic, slightly symptomatic, or severely symptomatic.

Mild symptoms seem to be a cough and fever. I'm not sure about you, but when I get a cough, the last thing I do is test my temperature. I don't even have a thermometer, and I certainly won't go to the hospital or get tested over a cough. It would be absurd to think that a cough is covid-19, especially during winter, thought it's obviously a non-zero number.

I'm thinking that a significant amount of people here in La La Land have been exposed, and a non-significant number are active carriers. This is why people are going to quarantine even if they don't show any symptoms. In many ways, it's a silent virus, causing ugly reactions in a lot of people, but apparently not affecting many others. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of cases are asymptomatic. Mind that the average case takes 14 days to express itself, which is why there is a 14 day quarantine period.

Of course, quarantine only helps if you are actually exposed during that time. If not, well, you'll get exposed later.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MuckPls
1, Short answer is no. Things like asthma inhalers are just bronchodilators and will not help at all. You could use an oxygen mask to relieve some of the early onset symptoms, but when it comes to life or death you NEED ventilation, which is always done in ICU. It is not really tanks as such at that stage, they are either intubated or put on so called ECMOs.



Generally speaking if you are healthy, have no underlying conditions and are below 60 you should not have anything to worry about, there are people who recovered who had no symptoms at all. The average age in Italy for deaths for example are 80.1.



2, The AIDS medicine part is heavily debatable. Even if it would work (it doesnt but thats another question), it is an extremely expensive medicine and would not be available in such large quantities. Our best hope is that the virus dies down with quarantine and that they develop and release a vaccine within 12-18 months.


how about shortening the time for clinical trials? i suspect that many people here in USA#9 would be willing to fade the risk of a vaccine that has not gone through full safety trials. Efficacy is relatively quick to figure out, as I understand the issue.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
Thx for posting DW. The info below is from a link embedded in the tweet thread (I'm posting b/c it's the first mention I've seen about onset time to fever in ppl who have tested positive for C-19):

The average time to presentation with pneumonia is 5.88 days, and may be linked to testing at hospitalisation; fever is often reported at onset (where the mean time to develop fever is 0.77 days).
Quote:
Originally Posted by daveT
Yes, I believe this is true. According to what I posted upthread about the congressional hearing with Dr. Fauci (legit guy), people are either asymptomatic, slightly symptomatic, or severely symptomatic.

Mild symptoms seem to be a cough and fever. I'm not sure about you, but when I get a cough, the last thing I do is test my temperature. I don't even have a thermometer, and I certainly won't go to the hospital or get tested over a cough. It would be absurd to think that a cough is covid-19, especially during winter, thought it's obviously a non-zero number.

I'm thinking that a significant amount of people here in La La Land have been exposed, and a non-significant number are active carriers. This is why people are going to quarantine even if they don't show any symptoms. In many ways, it's a silent virus, causing ugly reactions in a lot of people, but apparently not affecting many others. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of cases are asymptomatic. Mind that the average case takes 14 days to express itself, which is why there is a 14 day quarantine period.

Of course, quarantine only helps if you are actually exposed during that time. If not, well, you'll get exposed later.
You might want to invest in a thermometer ... fever onset is almost immediate once infected.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daveT
Yes, I believe this is true. According to what I posted upthread about the congressional hearing with Dr. Fauci (legit guy), people are either asymptomatic, slightly symptomatic, or severely symptomatic.

Mild symptoms seem to be a cough and fever. I'm not sure about you, but when I get a cough, the last thing I do is test my temperature. I don't even have a thermometer, and I certainly won't go to the hospital or get tested over a cough. It would be absurd to think that a cough is covid-19, especially during winter, thought it's obviously a non-zero number.

I'm thinking that a significant amount of people here in La La Land have been exposed, and a non-significant number are active carriers. This is why people are going to quarantine even if they don't show any symptoms. In many ways, it's a silent virus, causing ugly reactions in a lot of people, but apparently not affecting many others. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of cases are asymptomatic. Mind that the average case takes 14 days to express itself, which is why there is a 14 day quarantine period.

Of course, quarantine only helps if you are actually exposed during that time. If not, well, you'll get exposed later.
Holy ****. We're likely to lose hundreds of thousands of people.........
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:43 PM
Bout 350k

Sorry
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Treesong
how about shortening the time for clinical trials? i suspect that many people here in USA#9 would be willing to fade the risk of a vaccine that has not gone through full safety trials. Efficacy is relatively quick to figure out, as I understand the issue.
The risk is you put out a vaccine that actually makes things worse somehow.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Treesong
how about shortening the time for clinical trials? i suspect that many people here in USA#9 would be willing to fade the risk of a vaccine that has not gone through full safety trials. Efficacy is relatively quick to figure out, as I understand the issue.
I’ve been curious about this too. It appears that the virologists don’t want to do that. I guess lots of candidate vaccines fail trials and they don’t want one that doesn’t work (or worse, makes people sick).
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK
Can someone explain how China has 3,189 deaths and the number of officially confirmed new cases is almost zero, yet the U.S with 1/3 of the population is forecast to end up at five hundred times that number?
China recognize their problem then pulled out draconian levels to contain the virus. Much like H1N1 from 11 years ago they are prepared for these type of situations. So they locked everybody down forced companies to close and or work from home. Everybody who tested positive had to download a app to be tracked and monitored. Drones to monitor the situation. Then build 2 temporary hospitals converted another dozen to house patient beds and bought up every ventilator they could find. In the end they were able to confine the virus to only one major area of their country and reduce their numbers and the people are practicing safe caution. In the US that's not an option as soon as you lockdown a city or state people will scream civil rights widespread panic as the American government and their 2 party system will argue about everything delaying precious time to save people. Eventually you overload the hospitals and people who could be saved will die because there is not enough supplies and equipment to treat them.

In the end this will help us for the future as i think America will realize what they are lacking and better prepare themselves for the future against another pandemic with a higher mortality rate. Unlike other doomsday scenarios pandemics have one of the highest probability.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:50 PM
Theory would suggest giving the rushed vaccine to those most at-risk and waiting for the normal regulatory steps to immunise everyone else, with medical workers t.b.d
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:54 PM
Yeah I think my sister would be glad to be a guinea pig - except she might not even be a candidate for a vaccine due to auto-immune disease.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 07:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoSoup4U
I’ve been curious about this too. It appears that the virologists don’t want to do that. I guess lots of candidate vaccines fail trials and they don’t want one that doesn’t work (or worse, makes people sick).
Indeed. I saw an expert today say that the 12 - 18 months timetable was even agressive for this virus. He said two years was a better projection.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterwolves
If a lot more people have Coronavirus than is being reported the death rate should be a lot lower than is being reported right now too right?


Well it takes 4-6 weeks to kill you so not sure yet
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote
03-14-2020 , 08:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterwolves
Holy ****. We're likely to lose hundreds of thousands of people.........
There are 10M people in LA county. If this is really a 2% mortality rate and every single person gets infected and sick, then 200k are deep-sixed.

That number is meaningless because we don't know how many cases are asymptomatic, we don't know how many cases are people who got sick and didn't report, we don't know how many people never carried this virus, and we don't know how many of the people getting sick are in a high-risk group.

That's a ton of variables, so there's no way to say X amount of people will die. At best, we can use similar populations from other cities and do some ratios, but then again, it's not snowing here, so who can say what the transmission rate will be in our weather?

We currently have 53 confirmed cases and 1 death. Seven days ago, we had 11 deaths in the US and there are presently 41 deaths.

It's hard to say because, even last week, they were able to track the origins of a lot of cases. It's well into community spread now (unable to track the origin), so it's probably going to get pretty bad soon. It's just a question of how bad.

I'm a betting man (obv), but I'd be fool to take any over/under in LA.
The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN. Quote

      
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