please share more about what those warehouses and depots are like - has much changed besides the open roads and hornets? maybe post in the bfi version of this thread?

Hopefully on topic. I am interested in what our pandemic lockdown film watch list is. I'm thinking of films including mass illness of some cause - doesn't need to be viral per se.

Some British films I recommend are

Shaun of the Dead (2004) Zombie Apocalypse Comedy

Day of the Triffids (1962) Everyone blind. Carnivorous plants causes havoc.

Percy's Progress (1974) Chemical leak causes mass global impotence. (aka "It's not the Size that Counts" and supposedly a sequel to "Percy" actually pretty unrelated, different actor, character name etc,)

What else can be added? Is "Contagion" worth a look?

Contagion is THE movie for what you want.

Everyone seems to have it together now so business as usual. The warehouses serving restaurants got jammed up for a little while.

Yeah, base jumping is closer to the mark:

http://www.wingsuitfly.com/risk/4572000812

Juk

I always wanted to try base jumping!

Dude, we don’t know how many people under 40 has had it and was never tested. Don’t you think that’s a problem, but I guaranteed we know everyone who died in a car accident. So you’re off by an order of magnitude.

@Juk - It should be pointed out however, that the the base-jumping stats include DIY base-jumpers who do unsupervised jumps with equipment they bought off the internet and don't necessarily reflect the risks to people doing it with proper training and supervision. There isn't a comparable group of DIY skydivers.

Off topic but I couldn't resist - If you want to know the kind of junk that's in citizenship tests, my Slovak citizenship test included reading and summarizing a Slovak-language article where someone made that point about the stats for sky-diving vs base-jumping.

Great. Let's keep them coming. Any more ideas?

I'd bet a lot you are very wrong.

Perhaps we should all write a letter to the virus and let it know our concerns

The TV-series "Counterpart". Pandemic is only a side-theme there, but it could give you a glimpse on what the world might look like when this is over.

day of the triffids is one of the all time great scifi novels - none of the movies are really able to capture it as it's very difficult to capture menacing plants on film without it looking absurd nor are they able to capture the plants are just one of the issues they need to deal with

recently watched andromeda strain and outbreak

There's plenty of good data out there. There's still some small disagreement over the mortality rates, but it's been pinned down to a range of much less than an order of magnitude.

Yes im very aware of that, that was my point. The 1 in 500 or 1 in 1000 deathrate for people under 40 doesnt take that into consideration at all. Its based on known cases. The italy just released their data less than a week ago, death rate between 30-40 is 0.2% from known cases https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/. The number of infected is 10-100 times that from recent antibody tests (italy antibody testing and dutch antibody testing) . So that means the death rate for people between 30-40 is 0.02% which is 1:5000 or as low 0.002% which is 1:50000.

And now we actually are in the death by car crash ballpark.

As George Carlin used to say, this is the pussification of America.

All those ground level camera shots are going to make for some compelling TV production. Oh, wait.



- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Dr. Osterholm's fourth C-19 podcast installment is live (this one is a must listen imo) -- The Reality of Testing

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/...nars/episode-4

I was listening during a walk, so I wasn't taking notes. But here were some of the key takeaways:

- History has shown us that the initial outbreak of a new influenza based virus IS ALWAYS followed six months later by a deadlier outbreak/spread of the disease. It doesn't matter what season the initial outbreak occured in.

- USA#9 fast tracked company approvals for C-19 test kits to build capacity (i.e. companies didn't have to pass stringent tests). Seventy companies are now licensed to deliver C-19 and antibody tests in the U.S. Osterholm was on an FDA conference call a few days ago and the FDA called half of these tests "total junk".

- Not surprisingly, these tests have around a 5% chance of false negatives and positives ... he then went into epidemiology speak and basically said you can't run public policy/establish guidelines in this type of testing environment where you're not at 99%+ in testing confidence. He did a really good job of explaining why, but I'm not able to remember/explain it correctly. You'll have to listen to the podcast.

- People talk about contact testing and isolating. Ok great. How are we going to ensure isolation? Quarantine camps like in China and Vietnam? Ankle bracelets on people? Where is the serious discussion on isolation?

He said CIDRAP is coming out with their own guidelines for the next phase/"opening up a bit" within the next seven days.

This is all kinds of wrong. "Doesn't affect them" is false, and again, we have no idea what the long term consequences are.

That being said, there's some studies being done, and one suggested that if kids went back in different classrooms (smaller class sizes, more distance between students) it could help a lot. They suggest "only" 2-4% of deaths would be related to students back in school, which may end up being an acceptable number to decision makers.

I would wager my entire net worth 100% of colleges are not fully in person in Fall. In the way we fund our school system classes are too large and buildings too overcrowded, so I don't see a way K-12 is back at 100% either.

I mean, the markets are open. if you feel so strongly go ahead and back up that brinks truck. I've already put my money where my mouth is and been short boeing 2x, amc theaters 1x, and carnival 1x, done very well so far. until we can actually address this public health crisis I will continue to look for good spots to ride these things all the way down to dust.

Ah, I see. I didn't know about the Italian data. I believe DD was referencing the early CDC data which was assuming an overall fatality rate much lower than Italy's official stats (but still a little too high).

Italy's cases are undercounted by something in the ballpark of 10x, but definitely not 100x.

Someone asked me today why wearing a mask protects others from you more than it does you from others. A poster in this thread explained it very well but I can't find that post.

Can anyone either find that, or break it down again? I can't find a way to explain it as well as that poster but it made a lot of sense to me and I want to share it with her.

AMC is just barely above $2 right now but I jumped on shorting it when it jumped to $2.4 yesterday - decent chance they file bankruptcy especially since they don't really have anything else they can do with the locations and their parent company Wanda really hurt too so they probably aren't too worried about writing a big check and keeping it afloat

same with Carnival but i mistimed it and bought puts right before saudi investment

for real though Rich, there's a few companies trading at 10% or so of their value pre-rona so if you genuinely feel they'll rebound easily you could only be half right an quintuple your money in a few months - think of the pot odds

i'm long a lot of stocks and eventually will be 100% long but there are certain ones like theaters, restaurants and cruise lines that I'm going to shorting for a while

People who think it's way out that people are even mentioning that kids are losing "activities" (the weakest point made alongside school and friends). You do realise that this is happening because anywhere that tried just to make at risk groups stay at home met with zero compliance from them?

In other words, schoolkids are losing friends, school, milestone events and activities because boomers didn't want to give up their own activities until everyone else had.

(regarding DIY base jumpers)

That's what the article said. They may well have given me a fake news article to summarize. They weren't allowed to pick anything with any political content.

I knew I should’ve put 99%. Kids aren’t dying from it, adults under 50 aren’t dying from it(small number of exceptions). In an ideal world they would stay home to prevent the spread. I’m saying there’s almost no way that’s happening. There’s protests in Michigan over it and it’s been a month. Think about that 4 months from now.

The gov’t has always managed risk of death for us. They let the Cigarette industry kill 500k a year, they’re ok with millions of people having no health insurance, millions die from pollution a year, etc. They’re going to reopen too early even though they know it will kill people.

I wish they would keep everything shut down. Give everyone(no means testing) 2k/month for the duration of this thing.