America is such a large country that is it not likely to have waves of infection similar to how Italy, then Spain, the the UK all went down one after the other in Europe, even though they reported first cases at similar times.

Good demonstration of microdroplets - air movement seems to be the big key.

Could be another reason why poorer, warmer places aren't getting nailed quite as hard - they've got windows open and fans going.

Has anyone been analyzing the information about resolved cases? Namely, the ratio of recovered/ discharged to deaths?

Looking at cases in the US...
Frighteningly, currently around 60% of cases have ended in recovered/discharged and 40% in death. And only 10% of all cases have been resolved (around 54,000 cases).

Included in this number are all the people who tested positive but were sent home. And many of those people that have died have not been included in the death tolls. Which means that actually it's higher than 40%.

There are currently a little over 500,000 cases that are still UNresolved. Do we have any reason to think that 40%+ of these cases are not going to end in deaths?

There have not been any significant changes in treatment tactics or policies recently, so what reason would there be that 200,000+ of those 500,000 aren't going to die at some point in the next few weeks?

Obviously 10% is a small percentage, but 54,000 cases is a pretty large freaking sample size. And we are able to come to some reliable statistical conclusions from a number that large. Like in elections, if one candidate has 60% of the votes after only 10% of the vote return, we can statistically know the standard deviations for final results.

What factors am I not considering?

Do we even know if they are following up with people who test positive but get sent home?

This doesn't sound right.

The Javits Center and USNS Comfort haven't been used because there is no demand for them because the projected hospitalization data was so faulty.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/usns-c...d-coronavirus/

My only point in that post is saying Patient 0 was infected through consumption of a bat versus the virus being released through a contaminated sample at a Wuhan virology lab probably hold about equal weight. It's mistake just dismissing the lab theory as being a conspiracy.

Hmm maybe MLY didn’t have the rona after all

Don't disagree with any of that.

Another possibility I've read about (maybe this should go in the other thread) is thats its possible that patient zero was initially infected at the market from proximity with the intermediate host much earlier than the initial reports suggest, then infected others who at a later time also went to the market and spread the virus around in what would become the first known "ground zero".
Meanwhile the virus could have already been spreading to other locations.

Which I suppose could make sense because the same people would return to the market over and over on a regular basis. Not sure if eventually viral genetic studies could give us a more accurate picture of those very early cases?


Tried to read that whole thread but goddamn twitter ****ing sucks. Posts are all over the place and trying to read anything that's more than a couple hundred words in the order the author intended is virtually impossible.

It’s difficult to get into the resolved count. Undoubtedly that is the most underestimated category. No one is stressing about getting negative tests from people who report that they no longer have symptoms.

You can’t look at the numbers backwards and come up with 40% of people who have it die. That’s not how it works.

Tracing it back will be extremely difficult because it appears that some patients never develop significant symptoms, some don’t even know they ever caught it. This may mean that patient zero will never be identified. It’s much more challenging than tracing say Ebola.

It is more likely that they will find the intermediate host by genetic testing of virus present in other animal hosts. I understand that they are trying very hard in China to sequence viral candidates in lots of animals. I assume there will lots more basic research into bat-based Coronavirus infections in the next year or two. After MERS and SARS petered out, funding dried up in those areas. I assume that won’t be the case now.

Thread reader is your friend.

If anyone isnt familiar, I really recommend listening to 'An Arm and a Leg'. Basically it is about how horrible the US medical system is.

https://armandalegshow.com/

Good call, newDids.

Thank you sir

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

First thing listed:

Current cases: 560,323
Recovered: 32,634
Deaths: 22,108

So that's 54,742 resolved cases, which is less than 10% of all cases.

And 22,108/54,742 = 40.4%.

They aren't tracking every single confirmed case post-testing. If someone tests positive but never goes to a hospital they aren't going to be tracked, tested again and labeled "recovered" when they feel better in a week.

4/2 to 4/7 more than doubled
4/7 to 4/12 was 34 deaths from doubling and given 4/12 was a Saturday and weekend deaths seem to lag it either got to double in reality or it will today, so that’s still roughly doubling every 5 days

So how is doubling every 5 days shown to not be in play as you claim?

And it was one of many states I said were doubling about every 5 days...all of those will add up to a lot in a few more doubles

Yes, you're correct that we don't know how diligent they are with following up with those who are recovering at home, since I think that the only way a recovered person can be a "resolved" case is if they go back in and test negative. And I was mistaken before about reporting deaths, that if they were originally tested positive and die at home, they are included in the death toll.

But we also know that there are, in New York alone, a couple hundred people a day dying from Covid at home that aren't being counted in the death toll because they were never tested to begin with.

And the latter figure, we have some sense of. It's already been posted a few times here, but again:

(From April 6th):
An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee

So if there are 200ish people dying a day in NY that aren't even tallied (or more since deaths have been climbing since April 6th) and NY has been experiencing 700-800 OFFICIAL deaths per day, then it's entirely possible that the true death toll is 25-30% higher than the official amount.

Now, all of this is to say that there are of course so many unknowns, but if we KNOW that currently, 40% of official resolved cases have ended in death, it would take a RIDICULOUS amount of undercounting resolved recovery cases to get the death rate down to 1%.

If 10% of a total sample size breaks 40/60, and literally EVERY SINGLE one of the 90% of the remaining unresolved cases resolved miraculously in a recovery, that still puts us at 22,108 deaths out of 560,323 cases, which is 4%.

Fatality rate is not 40%

A good number of people who aren’t that serious are just not yet in the “recovered” state


It’s somewhere between 1-3% and likely close to 1%


That still means that if 30% of Americans get this that 1M die, so that’s why we need to not undersell this and release restrictions before we get a vaccine

Where's Huang Yanling at. Where's the girl China. That's all I wanna know



Dont want this WHO mutha ****a representin me

Just wanted to make sure that my response to this point specifically didn't get lost in the longish post I just made.

You are correct. But what is ALSO not being considered is the number of deaths from Covid of people who were never tested, but died at home. And the estimate of this amount from April 6th was 180-195 deaths per day. And this was from almost a week ago. And this was JUST in New York.

I don't know offhand what their methods have been with following up with and recording patients who have recovered, but there would have to be an insane amount of recoveries not being reported to get the true death ratio.

Can anyone speak to this? Has anyone seen any sources on estimates of those who have recovered but haven't been counted as official recoveries? We know the estimate of true cases to official cases is anywhere from 5-10x, but this other info would be incredibly useful.

The part I'm questioning is your claim that the recovered stat counts every person who tested positive but isn't hospitalized. It's impossible for that to be true as it would mean that nearly everyone who tested positive is currently hospitalized, and we know that that isn't true.

Yes, I already clarified in subsequent posts that we know this. Take a look at my more recent posts though about the current known unknowns surrounding this.

Most people who test positive go home, recover at home, and have no further contact with anyone in the system. So they are never officially resolved.

In a more centralized, organized country like S Korea I imagine they have some sort of system where health officials call you at home and check on your progress, and maybe even have you take a negative test after a couple weeks to officially resolve you.

But there is none of that in the US. Given how the system works, I am more curious the process of how 30,000+ people have been resolved as recovered than the untold thousands who aren't resolved.

i mean none of this really relevant though because we're mostly testing those who are basically needing hospital care

for what it's worth there are still people in wuhan hooked up to ventilators and have been since january, that's where you get the 5-10 daily deaths in china

scroll down for the "Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death)" graphs and you'll notice some similarities as well as strike home just how early we are in the cycle in USA#9

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/china/
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/