Howard, is the Corona at least keeping you off of the blackjack tables?

So less than flu then?

If people on the "let's panic" side want to make bets then they should be taking the over on numbers more like 250K.

Also re: "Children have had their schools closed." Were those schools closed by Coronavirus or by people panicking about Coronavirus?

If someone wants a more science based approach:

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...estimates.html

Above data presented for the general public:

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03...-we-think.html

The reality is that Coronavirus has so far wiped out 7 of the 1800 over 70s that were on the Diamond Princess killing no under 70s. Of course some ITT think that number will exponentially grow....

It sucks to be dead of course - but the reason people don't care about the the 10's of thousands of people dying of flu every year and do care about plane crashes etc. is that ultimately, the total death rate is always 100%, if people who were at the front of queue to die anyway get taken a few months earlier it doesn't have much impact - it just moves deaths from the cancer or heart attack column to the coronavirus column, keeping the total at 100%.

I am not going to take anything seriously. Studies have shown that washing your hands like a normal person who isn't even aware of a new virus works equally as well as doing it with serious intent.

Those of you* who are changing your behavior must have been real jerks until recently. You should have already been washing your hands, covering your coughs and avoiding contact with others when feeling ill.

*not the specific you.

Picking you at random, since everyone seems to be on one incorrect side if this or the other incorrect side. In epidemics, number of cases tend towards an s-shaped curve, not a linear or a ln exponential one.

In epidemics do they normally walk around with no symptoms for a month spreading it?

Yes. That is frequently the case.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repo..._Great_Britain

If the coronavirus kills as many (or more) people as that then perhaps we should just remove all speed limits "for the sake of the economy"...

Juk

This graph seems to be getting the point over to people on twitter:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...074153986.html

Juk

I personally enjoy the virus truthers who bring forth beauties like, “until this thing kills more people than the flu, it’s fake news”.

Influenza is one of humanities biggest health threats, and trillions of dollars have been poured into it by public health organizations across the globe for decades. You can literally get a vaccine for it in your grocery store, and should, every single year.

So yah, if this is as bad as the flu or even half as bad, that’s still real bad.

Sure, and nobody is claiming everyone will get it; we are saying like 30% will get it. An S-curve looks exponential in the beginning before the inflection point and that inflection point will be higher due to our lack of testing and the way people spread this disease before they even know they have it.

Events and conferences closing and people doing less air travel will help, but those alone aren’t enough

What does "panicking" mean? Am I panicking? I'd say on the contrary, I'm seeing **** hit the fan, and not liking the smell that soon will be present.

I think that's the point. You don't hear about the flu every year and how it kills thousands of people.

Is this virus worse than the flu? Maybe. I have no idea. But it's being overhyped by massive media coverage and is causing many people to seriously overreact with limited facts and knowledge.

The reality is, the flu is not that big of a deal for many healthy, younger people living in 1st world countries.

If it's as bad as the flu or even half as bad, then it doesn't require society to change how it operates, which is exactly what this virus has already done.

But it's worse than the flu. Hope not that much worse. As they say, they who live will see.

It's a fair estimate that someone reading this text (could be me) will be dead in a year from now from the corona. Trying to take that sensibly into account.

Bruh the reality is it's being underhyped, arguably actively suppressed

It probably is, but my point was that many people die from the flu, but every time someone dies from the coronavirus there is overreaction.

Serie A going to be canceled, the Olympics in danger, the overall economy reacting to it. How is it being underhyped?

Flue puts a big burden on health systems and costs the USA economy about 11.2BN every year.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...64410X18306777

This will probably be worse not just in that it puts a bigger burden, but also is more persistent and lasts longer than normal flue.

Remember normal flue will still happen, so you are going to get massive increased negative leverage on the systems that most years are stressed by flue, even though you as a young person are not aware of it.

Bruh the flu is something that has cost the world trillions of dollars for decades and we have developed vaccines for. Half as bad ain't that good


I'm talking USA specifically, agreed elsewhere there have been tight measures. The USA MEDIA MACHINE is all in on keeping the system going.

Well, then. I assume that your use of "our" in the above indicates that you have the power to change things. You would have used "they" if you didn't. Let me know how things go when you get the test thing in order. You have done a shitty job so far. Maybe less posting and more ordering of test kits would have been a better strategy.

Also, unless something changed since the last time I read up on things, transmission is primarily from symptomatic individuals.

As a small issue, a quick fact check of "nobody is claiming" was done and it is clearly not true. Scroll up a bit and you have a claim much higher.

Please don't be ridiculous.

Our = my country

It’s standard to say our when talking about one’s own country

But if you are gonna be a dick, then “The US response” has been horrible and is currently causing the inflection point on the S curve to be higher than it coulda been and 30% infection rate is definitely in “The US’s range”, and not near the top of “the US’s range”

How is he being ridiculous? The most popular news channel (along with lots of local news) is actively under hyping this so roughly 40% of Americans are under hyping this as a result.

And not testing people is part of actively suppressing the numbers.

That higher inflection point might happen. It currently isn't happening as we aren't anywhere near where you'd expect it to happen with even a much lower base infection rate. Maybe people are washing their hands. Maybe people are avoiding coughing on the elderly.

The US non-response has been exactly what you'd expect it to be. Well, other than the random weird stuff being said by people in charge, but that sort of thing really doesn't matter.

This is quite the range.

Suzzer, as 2p2’s designated sleeper agent, how are they talking about cv19 over at Chiefs Planet?

Italy just updated for the day. Up to 7375 cases (+1492 today) and now 366 deaths (+133 today). So they're running at a 5% death rate overall in a country with healthcare superior to what USA has.

I've seen articles in the last 24 hours that their healthcare system is starting to get overloaded with ICU beds in hallways and such. Things gonna get uglier before they get better.

France and Germany each crossed 1000 total cases today, too.

It's just the flu though.