The pres and his lackeys have been lying every step of the way. When Trump encounters an unpleasant concept he mumbles and changes the subject.

You guys follow the Russian numbers a bit? They're growing exponentially pretty much unimpeded.





btw shows nicely how the derivative of an exponential function is proportional to it

fyp, a lot of people seem to think it was just one hospital

they built 16 for wuhan alone, many more throughout the rest of Hubei province, the total amount they built was over 30

and then in most other cities that didn't even have breakouts, they had dedicated covid centers for testing and isolation of people who had fevers, if they tested positive they'd be sent to another covid treatment center

all of those places are separate from the normal hospital infrastructure so the regular hospitals can proceed as planned and do things like elective surgery that would otherwise be too risky if covid patients were in the hospital

in my elevator, there are not one but three addresses and phone numbers for me to choose to report to if I'm feeling sick - these aren't city wide, these are three locations i could walk to casually - i'm a good hour long drive from the city center so this is like having 3 dedicated centers just for staten island equivalent

Beijing only had 500 or so confirmed cases and 8 deaths, vast majority of those were people who tested positive with rona during quarantine upon arrival at the airport

i'm really hoping when this is all said and done we take some of that 10+ billion budget we give the cdc each year and start building some of the same infrastructure to have dedicated buildings available that can also serve other purposes when not in times of pandemic, we'll spend a fortune on military defense just in case, should apply the same principal to something far deadlier in relation (meaning add or remove a few military bases and our defensive capabilities in war won't dramatically change but add a few of those pandemic centers and it would change things greatly going forward)

Give me liberty or give me a potentially lethal infection

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Perhaps you don’t do a great job of reading for detail. They don’t conduct the survey, they report on it. The survey itself is directly linked in the article. The survey provides the list of experts as well as details on the questions and answers.

FWIW, the death toll right now is 32k, because the question specifically asks for them to use COVID Tracking Project. Given that deaths were 23,000 when the survey was taken, I’d say 37k is a reasonable estimate for the lowest possible number of deaths on May 1. That would be about how many deaths there would be if April 13 was the peak and it declined steadily from that point. They were asked for best possible outcome, worst possible outcome and what they predict to be likely.

The sunshine thing: From Lipsitch it has been obvious that “sunlight destroys viruses” is a basic fact known to all in the field. He has argued against closing parks and for outdoor exercise for months. I think they don’t want to encourage people to be stupid, because you could still catch it by breathing droplets directly in range of infected people.

The surfaces thing: The whole detectable virus on a surface after x hours is mostly crap science. It’s just the easiest possible experiment to conduct, but has little practical value. Half-life is more interesting. But for real people, the best advice is to just wipe everything down because that’s easy to understand and has a low failure rate.

Kids as carriers: Does need more study, but there are multiple studies done already that say kids are not only less likely to die, but less likely to get infected. When infected, they do shed virus like everyone else. Once antibody studies get completed in volume, they’ll know a lot more. Antibody testing is underway in hundreds of studies right now.

I’d also add that even if kids are much more resistant to catching it, it still might make sense to keep schools closed because kids are horrible at touching their face and getting right up in each other’s faces. Even if somehow a maximum of 20% of children could even catch it and infect others, if you put them in school, they’ll pretty much manage to reach close to the maximum because kids are human Petri dishes. Then they’ll infect all their moms & dads and encourage spread.

Ultimately those people don't want to have anything that can objectively be measured. It makes it hard for them to move the goalposts later on.

For example, the CFR they try and say, well, millions have it so the death rate is small. But then when they want to argue for relaxing restrictions, its "not many people have it"

It is not in their best interests to have anything that can be measured objectively some time in the future. Easier for them to have vague.

Uhhh....

From: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus (interactive charting tool - choose countries you're interested in to compare trends)





Sadly, the graphing isn't per capita, but it does provide data and you can plug that in outside the tool. I chose a few nearby countries for comparison, though all but Poland have about half the population as Sweden. Of course, Poland is much larger in pop...and Sweden is still outpacing them by a lot.

I'll take a different answer (the post above).

This is an unreal take, both in terms of idiocy and ignorance. But def appreciate you clarifying that they’re not “racist like that.”

This is correct, I am danish so also following the swedish numbers with a lot of interest.
The numbers they are reporting are the numbers that have been confirmed in the last 24 hours, they are then attributed to the correct date, so the worldometer numbers are not correct for each day.

I'm not aware of any outbreaks at a factory farm. Factory farms have relatively few employees. I can't think of any instances where those employees work in large groups.

There are outbreaks in meat packing/processing plants. In order for a meat packing plant to operate employees have to stand shoulder to shoulder on a line cutting animals into increasingly small pieces of meat and packaging them for sale.

I'm not really sure how, or where, the "overcrowding" fits in, unless it's in reference to employees in a meat packing plant. A packing plant simply requires large amounts of labor, similar to any other assembly line.

Bad news on the Remdesevir study we discussed yesterday. They significantly increased sample size well beyond what is necessary. This is likely done for one of two reasons:

1. Early data showed no statistical difference. Increasing sample size makes it likely they find a difference of statistical significance, but last sample size was plenty to show clinical difference. So we may get outcomes saying they found a difference, but it’s super unlikely the effect size has clinical significance. This will be dangerous because you’ll have headlines saying differences found, but they don’t actually matter.

2. They are trying to block participants from other intervention trials. I like to believe no one would do this at this time, but so much money at stake that it wouldn’t totally surprise me.

Either way - increasing sample size at time they did is not good news for efficacy.

I presumed he meant amongst the animals, which is why they pump them full of antibiotics. Now, I'm not sure.

same thing with the left though sadly, my sister just sent an email mentioning how difficult it was to always have her or her husband home to take care of the baby with all the time they are spending going out and working on political campaigns "in order to prevent things like this happening again"

she's theoretically a very smart person but i fail to see how she's any different from those people in michigan thinking that going to political gatherings right now "to campaign for a more responsible government to prevent future pandemics" is just beyond ******ed

Can you expand a bit on this? I've read about the half life of the virus, but curious to know how that would translate to say, how you should treat any shopping that you take home from the supermarket. Would you still wipe/spray down any items stored in plastic containers, especially those you put straight in the fridge? Or is the risk by this stage likely to be minimal.

I've become a bit anal about spraying down bottles of milk before I refrigerate them, out of an abundance of caution more than anything scientific.

There was a story doing the rounds yesterday regarding the UK's weekly "clap for our carers" event, where people do exactly as described andopen their windows, go to their front doors, whatever, and clap for a couple of minutes as a show of support for our carers working on the front lines. The story showed video of hundreds of people all grouped together on Westminster bridge, clapping for our carers. I think people just sometimes don't give things a second thought.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52328143

same & same

in china they go super forensic to find out how all sick people got sick to wipe out covid completely - there are a few people who have had no contact with anyone, hadn't left their homes at all and only interaction with the world was to receiving packages that were left outside their door

those people have gotten covid, same with people who shared an elevator or bench at different times

wipe down everything, especially if it's going into a fridge because it does better in that environment and actually thrives there

another option is to get a spray bottle and do 1 part disinfectant liquid 100 parts water and give everything a light spritz before it comes in the house

can also do 1 part bleach/100 parts water but for obvious reasons of staining clothes and having to rinse off the bleach it's not ideal

my parents are doing this:

order pickup and the grocery store puts the bag into the back of the truck - my dad doesn't even need to get out of the truck

come back and wipe/spray everything

things that don't need refrigeration stay out on porch a few days as an extra precaution

things that need refrigeration get the treatment they were instructed when back in the peace corp which is fill the sink with water, add bleach, dunk all the vegetables in there and then rinse thoroughly

then washing hands religiously and showering

so far still covid free so that's nice

SiMor,

You kind of buried the lead. There were lots of cops, as well as firefighters, there who weren't enforcing any social distancing, nor social distancing amongst themselves.

Bergstrom did a twitter takedown of that exact issue with the model. It appears that they are using an erf function to draw the curve which basically forces a symmetric curve. There does not appear to be any empirical basis to believe this will be the case.

What do people think I am “denying”?

I don’t actually believe there are only 30k new cases per day. If we had decent testing, we would find far more cases.

Nevertheless, we wouldn’t find so many cases that we are anywhere close to herd immunity. Nor will be get anywhere close to herd immunity given our current lockdown regime, as the lockdown regime has slightly slowed the spread of the virus.

I don’t believe the long-term goal of the current restrictions is herd immunity. If it was, they would be structured much differently. I’m just not sure what the alternate long-term goal is.

Yup. That definitely seems to be the case.

Obvs, with a max of 4.2%, we're still nowhere near herd immunity, but it def says something about how bad our testing regime is, and hints about how far off our fatality rates are.

Projections without good data are garbage.

It also goes to show just how desperately we need a good, reliable, at home antibody test so that we can begin to get that good data. The Uk have bought 3.5 million of such tests, only to discover that they weren't effective enough to be used with any confidence.

"Experts" surveyed on April 13/14??? On the low end it looks like some "experts" envisioned people coming back from the dead....