Can we discuss how a ‘reopening of the economy’ would realistically look? Whether you agree or disagree (I disagree), there is growing sentiment that the economy should be reopened sooner than later. Given that we’re quickly approaching the peak in NYC, the voices calling for leadership to open things back up are only going to get louder and louder. This will undoubtedly be a huge debate in the US (and elsewhere) over the next month.

So, given the above, can we talk about what it actually means to ‘reopen the economy’ in any meaningful way and realistically what that looks like? I’m not as interested in discussing whether the economy should or ‘should’ not be reopened right now; it’s the ‘How’ that I’m really struggling with.

I’ve been thinking about this question quite a bit and still don’t have any great answers/insights. I would love to hear what other intelligent people think about this problem and how (if) it can be solved. Options I can I think of include:
- Just remove all restrictions and go back to 2019 standards. I think this clearly results in massive outbreaks again as there isn’t evidence that there’s any sort of herd immunity at this point (other than potentially in certain confined geographies).
- Remove restrictions for certain areas/counties with low case numbers. As county borders don’t really exist and state borders are porous, I’m not sure how effective this is as it won’t stop outbreaks from quickly happening in the open counties.
- Isolate/quarantine everyone over 65 or with a compromised immune system and open everything back up to everyone else. Seems to have the issue though that those isolated/quarantined won’t truly be isolated and many will quickly be infected by caregivers, food handlers, etc.
- Drastically increase testing and contact tracing as restrictions are lifted and aggressively isolate infected individuals. Seems like the best bet but the infrastructure to pull this off in the US seems like it’s months and months away.
- Perform a ton of antibody testing and somehow mark (bracelet?) individuals with antibodies and let them be the leaders in reopening everything. It doesn’t seem like we’ve hade nearly enough infected though (outside of maybe NYC) to make this effective.

What am I missing? I am struggling with this question and just can’t find a reasonable and realistic solution. The market has jumped quite a bit and part of that has surely been the lowered death projections and clear evidence that social distancing is reducing the spread of the virus. For a real economic recovery though we need an exit plan and I’m still not understanding what that is. Would love some thoughts from others.

I like both of these options. I'm picturing the final act of "Contagion".

That said, with the newest accepted death projection, I can't help but think this thing will be "over" or at least only in the background of the world's collective mind in a months. I hope I'm right but I'm glad I prepared for the worst.

I predict I will never get an open delivery time again for amazon fresh.

I get them all the time. Even got multiple 6 packs of mega rolls in my last order for the 1st time. Just have your cart loaded and refresh the time slot window like 50 to 100 times during the day until you get lucky. lol

Lol none of this will happen.

Good talk.

I've seen a lot of people mention something like this as a possibility, but I don't think they're really putting enough thought into it.

I guess you would have to just pick an arbitrary age to draw the line? There isn't anything magical about 65. Lots of people older than that would not obey that kind of restriction anyway.

How do you decide who has a compromised immune system? That can obviously be a matter of degree, and not necessarily easily defined. What if I'm 50 years old with diabetes...does the government force my employer to keep my job waiting for me indefinitely while I stay home? Or am I forced to choose between staying safe and losing my job, or keeping my job but risking my life?

What if I'm a 42-year-old smoker who is 50 pounds overweight...do I get to stay home too? Or I'm 66 and perfectly healthy, can I go to work?

It seems problematic in a lot of ways, I just don't see how that can be a realistic solution.

the peak means the rise in cases every day is over. but every day there will be many new cases just a little less than the day before unitl it drops way down. it may drop faster or slower than it rose. so the curve down isnt going to match the curve up.

when the time comes it has to be a voluntary quarantine with each taking their own risks as to whether they want to risk dying or not.
hopefully by then there will be enough tests to know whether you have antibodies or have it.
and enough hospital beds and equipment to service the newcomers.

if you are 40, smoke and 50 pounds over weight you have already told the world you dont care if you live or die, so why should anyone worry about your health or welfare.

Who gives a **** about debates and sentiment and how loud someone's voice is. I'm not an epidemiologist. When my doctor gives me medical advice, I don't debate her or accuse her of being a part of some harebrained conspiracy. Compared to my doctor's opinion, my opinion is so much hot air.

I trust my doctor, and I trust my state's professional epidemiologists to find a way to "open things back up" without igniting new outbreaks or wasting all the good effort to date.

once the vaccine is out, people will go back to shaking hands and hugging

Holiday season 2021. I am now preparing for 18 months inside. Unless I run hot on the anti-body test, then I will prance around as an orderly gentleman.

also Tindering (or grindring if that's your thing)

Unless larger swaths of the country get hit with NYC-level death rates I'm skeptical that lessons learned will be radical or lasting.

yeah most people don't know anyone whose died or even had any kind of complications because of it....people are going back to normal, and the aftermath people are going to come to the conclusion that it wasn't worth it, and it was largely just a media induced panic and we never should have gone on lockdown.....meaning the next pandemic if its something worse than corona is going to killl a massive amount of the population because people will refuse to go through this again and will refuse to buy into the panic.

AlobarIsRight

I mean there are plenty of people that are saying we are currently in a needless panic, so yeah definitely not a stretch by any means.

Number of unplanned pregnancies skyrockets after people are let out of their houses.

You youngs and all your hormones that are building up...

Ahh, I got a trip planned to go to Canada in Mid July. Chances the border is open for vacation travel by then?

They will remember Boris Johnson though.

uh, i know a couple, one is on a ventilator at this time. and remember just because it doesnt kill you it often causes permanent damage to your lung power.

and if people after it is over think it was overblown that is because the containment worked. not because it was an insignificant event.

Never had a cigarette in my life, but this is nonsense.

I predict USA will try to open up all businesses including restaurants on May 1st(May 15th at latest), with the plans being rolled out around a week beforehand.

Yeah, I predict this will happen and then immediately blow up in our faces.

Yes, that will not work out very well for us if we rush.