Yeah, it's being produced by two guys under a commercial laundry in ABQ.

Virus showing signs of a slowdown, CNN salty bout that.

Thinman coming in like the kid who yells your joke louder.

USA has a population roughly equal to the big 5 European nations (France, UK, Italy, Germany, Spain)

Currently the stats stand at

DEATHS

Euro5: ~19600
USA: 2200

CASES

Euro5: 260k
USA: 123k

Yesterday was

USA: 19k, 525
Euro5: 24k, 2.5k

All that said, USA will take the lead in cases within 3 weeks, and deaths within 5 weeks would be my prediction.

Good luck American friends, you are going to need it I think.

Cases are completely off. Multiply Italy/Spain figures by 5-10 to get something approximately accurate (in Germany they are much better). Death numbers are much more accurate.

USA/UK vs. Euro group seems like an interesting competition. I also think USA/UK will come from behind down the stretch. They have that Trump Boris Johnson leadership advantage.

Not sure where you are getting this idea. All that's slowing down is the counting of cases.

Everything I see by medical people is saying this is working out pretty well in the US,seems like it's being managed correctly. I don't watch the news and everything I'm getting from the science heads is saying this is a pretty good expected outcome for this virus.

Wow

There are doctors who aren't shills for Fox news, you know.

Could you define how something that has already ocurred is a pretty good expected outcome?

It is true that for now (until the antibody tests come out), the number of deaths is the much more accurate statistic.

However, deaths are very much a lagging indicator. The average incubation period (= until someone shows first symptoms) is like 5.2 days. It takes an average of 7-10 days from the end of incubation until somebody with a severe progression of the infection is admitted to the ICU. If the person doesn't survive the infection, death typically occurs 7-14 days after admission to the ICU. Finally, the coronavirus-induced death is reported with a delay of 1-4 days.

The death count in the US today reflects infections that happened 3+ weeks ago.

Everything should be normalized on a per capita basis. Italy and Spain are winning right now, and big.

You have about a fortnight to let them enjoy their "winning"

Once the pandemic is over, yes.

You can't really compare across countries at this stage. For instance, it is now hypothesized that deaths in Germany are relatively low thus far in part due to the fact that the wave affected young people disproportionally much. Just by chance, due to the way the infection spread (one major source being a skiing resort which is visited by young people for the most part). In Italy and Spain, some early cases are related to old people's homes instead.

I don't deny there are other factors in play but it just doesn't make much sense to do cross-country comparisons of deaths per capita at this point.

Pediction: 500k dead in the UK.

prediction: 7.8 billion dead within the next 70 years

Mini baby boom coming in about 9 months.

divorce boom coming sooner than that

Accurate

20k dead in the UK, at most.

it might become so prevalent you have virtually no chance to not catch it. its just when.
just hope for drugs that suppress the bodies immune response to it, so more then can survive.

right now if you go out shopping or for a walk the vast majority you pass do not have it. when that changes and its happening fast then it becomes hard not to get it. unless of course you are a complete hermit for many months.

breitbart reports that Iranian deaths are likely to be 5x what the iranians have reported. that wouldn't shock me one bit.

Many people don't understand exponential growth. Number are gonna rise a lot in the next few weeks.

Look, the UK has 66m people. Under the conservative assumptions that just 60% of the population catches it and just 1% of those infected die, you are at close to 400k deaths.

A death rate of just 1% seems pretty low considering the poor state of the NHS and what we know about the virus.

EDIT: The UK is gonna arrive at 20k dead within the next two weeks, I predict.

Those aren't conservative assumptions, imo. They are pretty average assumptions. Of course, we don't know the first at all yet, and have no very good data on the second (since we have no idea how many untreated/asymptomatic cases there are, but very few epidemiologists have guestimated higher than 60% spread, with 40%-60% being the most common. This is based on previous diseases, so it's pretty much a ballpark, but at least they have models for it.

As for death rate, there are still a few out there estimating higher than 1%, but it's becoming a mainstream number among medical professionals (source, fivethirtyeight's weekly survey of epidemiologists and discussions with my sister who is a micro-biologist). Of course, it's still largely a guess. We can't even bound it by number of known cases/fatalities, because many of the currently known cases are still in danger, but those observed numbers are close to a max bound. On the minimum bound, we have literally no data, as we just have zero idea how many people have/had untested cases.

Mortality we don't really know that much, I agree. There are issues with statistics being biased (CFR has upward bias, CFRb has downward bias until the pandemic is over). There are also issues with measurement error (e.g., somebody being counted as a covid-19 victim despite having died from a pre-existing heart condition).

Nevertheless, while 1% may not be a conservative estimate for a well-prepared industrialized country, I imagine it will be higher in a poorly-prepared industrialized country such as the UK.

It stands to reason the quality of the national health care system will matter quite a bit given the high speed with which the virus is hypothesized to spread.