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Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen?

03-25-2020 , 06:46 PM
Automation of hospitals and medical services will be pushed. Think actual robots treating people. It will be called Health Care 4.0 or something.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-25-2020 , 06:51 PM
I predict Louisiana deaths will rocket up the charts soon because the vast majority of people there are morbidly obese.

Florida olds will also start ramping up soon.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-25-2020 , 07:43 PM
NYC in 2 weeks:

Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-25-2020 , 08:28 PM
from what i see the older people are being fairly isolated and the young dont seem to care as much. most are not self isolating just not able to go where they legally cant.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-25-2020 , 08:30 PM
KAT's momma makes it.

Rand Paul goes to p.m.i.t.a. prison.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-25-2020 , 08:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee
do projects you needed but put off
You sound like my wife. I've done so much "honey-do" bs the last week and a half I started going back into the office to just have less **** to do.

I predict a down economy will force the rest of you back to work causing millions to die b/c you don't have the benefit of a three person office in a standalone building. But hey, the Dow will be up, so, like, who cares.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 03:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morphismus
Tehehe
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 04:55 AM
Timetable prediction (for U.S.):

All states will fall in line with non-mandatory but suggested self-quarantining (like we have now in 18 states) over the next 10ish days.

CA and NY will go to martial law in that time as well. Other states follow suit within a few weeks later.

Late April: the experts tell us we're right in the thick of the worst of it, suggest a continued quarantine for 2-3 more weeks. By 3rd week of May, Gov't announces that within the next week or two, the quarantines will lift and there will be a gradual phased soft re-opening of different industries, with the caveat that the virus is still.not 100% gone, so the quarantine may need to be reinstated at any time.

By the first week of June, we see numbers rising again, and the highly partisan debate breaks out of whether or not to go back in quarantine. It's still a state by state decision, and we once again over the course of the rest of June see all states re-quarantine, starting again with CA and NY.

By end of July, the virus is in so few cases that the U.S. reopens now for good, with cases low enough to control the number of cases with individual quarantines. Also by this point will be some kind of medical breakthroughs providing not a cure or vaccine, but medicines that will help with the severity of the symptoms.

By this point though, some areas in the rest of the world will be experiencing the worst of it, so we will be disallowing travel to and from those areas.

By early October, open cases will be almost gone, and by next March we'll have a vaccine.

This is imo a BEST CASE SCENARIO depending on how seriously the government and the citizens choose to take the disease. I'm less than enthused about how people are reacting so far.

We also will need another stimulus package by mid May to keep the masses from rioting and all out anarchy.

Death toll prediction:

We may not ever actually have the numbers since there's no consensus, at least so far, on how deaths by CV are tallied. For example, right now if a person calls the hospital with CV symptoms but their condition isn't serious (trouble breathing) then they don't even get tested, and they stay home. If they end up dying at home, that currently doesn't count towards the tally. All that being said...

Total deaths from COVID: 150 million
Total deaths from other causes that would have been prevented had the medical system not been overstressed: 80 million

The numbers in my prediction are pretty high, but for a couple reasons:

1. The overstressing of the system. Just look at Italy right now. Last time I checked I think there was a 5% mortality rate. And that's not because of the deadliness of the disease as it is that so many lives could be saved if the system wasn't overstressed. And not included in that are all the other lives lost due to other things that normally wouldn't kill someone, infections, heart attacks, car accidents, etc.

2. I think third world areas are going to get ****ing rocked. The Middle East, India, Africa. Think about how much of a shitshow this is in the first world. In a country like India where tens of millions of people live in absolute squalor, all in close quarters, plus the idea of self-quarantining would be laughable. Half the world lives at poverty level. I don't like their chances.


The only way we'll know the true death toll is to see how many people die in 2020, and subtract from that the number of people that normally would have died (which we know pretty accurately). I actually think losing 4-7% of the world's population isn't outside the realms of possibility. I'd actually say that losing 2% of the world's population is the floor.

I would love nothing more than to be wrong about every word in my post.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 05:07 AM
Third-world countries have really young populations. That should limit their losses.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 06:15 AM
They're really young because they die from other ****. Half a million people in Africa died from AIDS last year.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 06:50 AM
Should we start hoarding ac units, those sales will be lit af when we get the first heat wave.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 07:00 AM
Best case: 100m dead

Worst case: doctors, nurses, first responders abandon their posts, major food production/distribution issues, society breaks down, wars, mass starvation, bigger wars. Game over man...
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 07:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Losing all
Best case: 100m dead

Worst case: doctors, nurses, first responders abandon their posts, major food production/distribution issues, society breaks down, wars, mass starvation, bigger wars. Game over man...
Heard immunity doe
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 11:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Down
Timetable prediction (for U.S.):

All states will fall in line with non-mandatory but suggested self-quarantining (like we have now in 18 states) over the next 10ish days.

CA and NY will go to martial law in that time as well. Other states follow suit within a few weeks later.

Late April: the experts tell us we're right in the thick of the worst of it, suggest a continued quarantine for 2-3 more weeks. By 3rd week of May, Gov't announces that within the next week or two, the quarantines will lift and there will be a gradual phased soft re-opening of different industries, with the caveat that the virus is still.not 100% gone, so the quarantine may need to be reinstated at any time.

By the first week of June, we see numbers rising again, and the highly partisan debate breaks out of whether or not to go back in quarantine. It's still a state by state decision, and we once again over the course of the rest of June see all states re-quarantine, starting again with CA and NY.

By end of July, the virus is in so few cases that the U.S. reopens now for good, with cases low enough to control the number of cases with individual quarantines. Also by this point will be some kind of medical breakthroughs providing not a cure or vaccine, but medicines that will help with the severity of the symptoms.

By this point though, some areas in the rest of the world will be experiencing the worst of it, so we will be disallowing travel to and from those areas.

By early October, open cases will be almost gone, and by next March we'll have a vaccine.

This is imo a BEST CASE SCENARIO depending on how seriously the government and the citizens choose to take the disease. I'm less than enthused about how people are reacting so far.

We also will need another stimulus package by mid May to keep the masses from rioting and all out anarchy.

Death toll prediction:

We may not ever actually have the numbers since there's no consensus, at least so far, on how deaths by CV are tallied. For example, right now if a person calls the hospital with CV symptoms but their condition isn't serious (trouble breathing) then they don't even get tested, and they stay home. If they end up dying at home, that currently doesn't count towards the tally. All that being said...

Total deaths from COVID: 150 million
Total deaths from other causes that would have been prevented had the medical system not been overstressed: 80 million

The numbers in my prediction are pretty high, but for a couple reasons:

1. The overstressing of the system. Just look at Italy right now. Last time I checked I think there was a 5% mortality rate. And that's not because of the deadliness of the disease as it is that so many lives could be saved if the system wasn't overstressed. And not included in that are all the other lives lost due to other things that normally wouldn't kill someone, infections, heart attacks, car accidents, etc.

2. I think third world areas are going to get ****ing rocked. The Middle East, India, Africa. Think about how much of a shitshow this is in the first world. In a country like India where tens of millions of people live in absolute squalor, all in close quarters, plus the idea of self-quarantining would be laughable. Half the world lives at poverty level. I don't like their chances.


The only way we'll know the true death toll is to see how many people die in 2020, and subtract from that the number of people that normally would have died (which we know pretty accurately). I actually think losing 4-7% of the world's population isn't outside the realms of possibility. I'd actually say that losing 2% of the world's population is the floor.

I would love nothing more than to be wrong about every word in my post.
I'm pretty much bang in line with this set of predictions. The fact that in the end, 9 figures die anyways is what has me wondering if the current strategy being taken is correct - are we actually saving a material number of lives while putting millions out of work?
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 12:04 PM
many die from the virus. but after figuring how many didnt die from the total other causes like traffic accidents, etc, because they were quarantined it may come out dead even.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 12:07 PM
with the skies clearing up from lack of air pollution. waterways improving from lack of use and added polluting. people thinking more about their health and things like how smoking can kill them in other ways, the world will wake up and make changes.
oh wait that wont ever happen i take it all back it will be business as usual and worse.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 12:13 PM
a dating app for covid positive singles causes hysteria
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 03:52 PM
I am enjoying the perspective shift. Some people are suddenly looking around and asking, "Why?"
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 09:14 PM
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 09:18 PM
Deaths in US peak April 8 or earlier. Final fatality rate in line with the seasonal flu.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 10:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by soah
Third-world countries have really young populations. That should limit their losses.
Young population but are they relatively healthy i would say there death rate might be higher because a good chunk of them are malnourished and clean water is not accessible as it is to us let alone any disinfecting products.

And this whole notion that were gonna have a vaccine by March of next year is ridiculous unlikely anything that fast and by that time a new strain of the coronavirus will be out wreaking havoc.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 10:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by idun215

And this whole notion that were gonna have a vaccine by March of next year is ridiculous unlikely anything that fast and by that time a new strain of the coronavirus will be out wreaking havoc.
The only reason that I think we might have a vaccine even earlier than the proposed 18 months is that everyone and their mother are going to stop what they're doing to work on this.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-26-2020 , 10:44 PM
There's already a vaccine in the human testing phase. It's just a matter of whether or not it works.
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-27-2020 , 02:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAAASH3
Deaths in US peak April 8 or earlier. Final fatality rate in line with the seasonal flu.
Naaaaa 21 days after full lockdown...and there will be no full lockdown so....

You are dreamin'

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote
03-27-2020 , 03:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by soah
There's already a vaccine in the human testing phase. It's just a matter of whether or not it works.
word on the streets of New Mexico is there already is a really effective vaccine, it just isn't being released because the liberals are blocking it to ruin Trump
Coronavirus Predictions And Forecast Thread. What Do You Predict Will Happen? Quote

      
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