Infectious Disease Experts Uncertain How Bad Coronavirus Will Get

This may be slow pony, but I came across this article on Nate Silver's 538 web site.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...to-get-either/

Two sobering outtakes from the article: (1.) The death rate will be (could be) anywhere from 200,000 to 1 million. (2.) There's a 73 percent probability of a "second wave" of the virus returning sometime in the fall.

The only qualifier in these predictions is a high degree of uncertainty. The "consensus" estimate could be way too high - or way too low.

That was quicker than expected.

That is not what the experts predicted. From the article "Experts’ estimates of the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. in 2020 ranged from 4,000 all the way to 1 million, a huge range that highlights how much we still don’t know about this disease."

200K was an average prediction estimate, not a low end. And the confidence interval is extremely wide on that. They didn't give a 95% CI (probably as with this small sample size and wide variation, it wouldn't be any different than the bounds), but the 80% CI was also huge: "between 19,000 and 1.2 million."

The second wave prediction above does reflect the article accurately. Also noteworthy is that these experts guestimate that as of March 15, "only 12 percent of infections in the U.S. had been reported." That estimate is averaged from very wide individual estimates too, though, with responses ranging from 5% to 40% of cases having been reported.

This is the problem with all the stats people keep throwing around. We just don't have the data yet. This is especially true of infection and mortality rates, as we're just not testing enough to know. We know that our stats are skewed, but we have no idea how skewed. Some people are using that to paint pictures of doom and gloom, and others to say that reaction is way overblown. What we should, instead, be painting is a picture of uncertainty and the need to test widely.

the places that lockdown the most will fair the best. but only if the virus subsides in the heat of summer.

if the virus stays the same as it is and people go about business as they are still doing, virtually all of those that are susceptible will get it.

I don't think Trump will survive this because he isn't quarantining himself and with such a stressful job his immune system can't be very strong. Even the best medical care money can buy can't save everyone.

its funny but i heard that mexico asked to shut their border so the people of the u.s. wouldn't come down into their country and cause harm to their people.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ronavirus.html

This is happening sooner than I expected.

There is no reason to expect this virus to subside in the summer. It is not influenza.

previous coronaviruses have subsided in the summer though which is why it is in the realm of possibilities

It's summer in Sao Paulo and they're currently converting a sports stadium into a hospital for coronavirus patients.

there seems to be less cases in the southern hemisphere though?

anyway we'll see I guess, if it doesn't go away we'll just have to accept millions of people dying and move on

It got a late start. Brazil was at 0 deaths a week ago and now they have 34.

There are relatively few cases in the hot parts of South America but also in the cool parts too. Bogota has roughly the same climate and population as the Bay Area, and pretty much nothing is going on there.

I predict everyone escaping NYC right now will say **** your 14 day quarantine and massively infect all the surrounding states and whatever vacation communities they own homes in.

They're flattening the NYC curve!

Stop stop Florida is already dead

thats why they need to test before getting on a plane.

Plenty of people in NYC do have cars.

There are a lot fewer people in the southern hemisphere, almost all in poor countries that don't have good data.

50-100k in the US dead from CV by the end of 2020 IMO (not including collateral non-CV deaths caused by health care system overload). This is my guess for the median outcome, obviously mean outcome would be higher.

I think once we get over 10k deaths and to a level where most people know someone who either died or had to be put on a ventilator for CV, fear will set in for those slow to 'get it' and self-correcting behavior will emerge (from both regular people and hopefully, government) and bring down the R0.

I don't think warm-weather mitigation theory is looking strong right now, but I think it's still in play. Likewise I know the trial process for vaccines is a long one, but it seems like it's possible they may be able to develop therapeutics in the meantime that could help?

Millions dead in the US seems possible in theory, but I think we have a lot of outs to curb it before it gets that high.

The virus will develope a symbiotic relationship with ******ed people unlocking their magical abilities.

people will be wiped off the face of the earth to correct natures mistake in natural selection.

Can we call the end of casino poker yellow Friday? Not like as a reference to Chinese but the color associated with the sun.

No.

I hope nobody takes action on The Over/Under, but I wish some Las Vegas oddsmaker would venture an estimate on what it will be. Lots of people disbelieve the doctors and epidemiologists who say many will die. Maybe they'll believe somebody who writes point spreads at Westgate or the South Point.