Twoplustwo users have been pretty amazing at predicting a lot what's going to happen with Coronavirus. The probability and mathematics that a lot of poker players are advanced with might be really useful in forecasting the future of the Coronavirus.

- NVG predicted a WSOP closure long before things were being shut down.
- Business and Finance predicted a stock market collapse before it began falling.
- And here in OOT we have a preppers thread.

Because the conversation about Coronavirus has been at such a high level on this site, what do you think is going to happen to the world and to your country in the weeks, months and years to come?

You don't have to be a doctor or an expert to include your opinion, and even far out theories are welcome, as long as you can explain your logic and reasoning.

You can even break down your predictions into probabilities if you like. As in: 75% A happens, 15% chance B happens and 10% chance C happens.

Because 2p2 brings in a lot of Google search traffic, your theories might even help influence authorities and experts if they're good enough, because I'm sure that a lot of them are searching the web to see what other people are saying and thinking. So let's hear it!

I predict this thread gets nuked. 70/30. The same thread is likely at the top of the page.

While I do like the idea of keeping all the fake doctors out of the main thread, I also can't really see them co-existing either.

My bold prediction is that if someone comes up with a vaccine or an effective treatment, it's going to be happen in a country that'll surprise many and it definitely won't be USA#1. Reason being that in western countries being allowed to even trial vaccines takes forever because of bureaucracy, but I suspect that in others (especially those ravaged by the virus) they might take some short cuts. Alternatively it might be some biohackers working in their mom's basement.

To your point.

I predict mandatory quarantine of all people within a designated hot spot(s) within the united states that will also be declared to be under martial law within said designated hot spot(s). Within two weeks.

I predict more coronavirus threads created in OOT. CHANGE MY MIND!

damn, I was going to post this

40-70% of Americans end up infected, 1 million plus dead

No way. <25K dead in USA. The scary thing about this is how panicked everyone has become and how quickly basic necessities started running out.

Alobar,

I suspect that'll be near the top end of worst case scenario. Just seems too unbelievable given that yea we've been bad about prepping for this, but we still have made adjustments even if they are late that should help us keep this to a reasonable death toll.

There is literally a 0% chance there are <25k deaths in USA#9. Pretty sure the basement of 200K has already been determined. I personally think it will be closer to 1M than 200k, but I don't really have a lot of faith in humanity, and especially not dipshit americans.

0% chance you say? Give me 100 to 1 on a 100 bucks then? Free money right?

omg stfu

The one fact that isnt brought up enough is that in all of those hot spots that started getting huge number of cases per day, they pretty much stopped testing anybody without serious symptons because limits in tests / or simply the amount of tests couldnt be processed. So the real number of infected is probably 10 times more than the official number. The more cases there is a single place the actual number of cases is going to be exponentially bigger.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...id-19-testing/

if u look at south korean testing numbers compared to others u can clearly see they have the most accurate data and even they couldnt catch all.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

They got ~8000 cases with 75 deaths and 75 critical. So thats the most accurate but still wont be as high.

Since its a new virus nobody has immunity to it so most people are going to get it and that what makes it challenging to hospitals, but the danger to most people is not much worse than normal influenza, probably 2-3 times worse at max.

people in power like to use their power. i think more quarantines and isolation's will be enforced in much of the world.

hoarding goods will be rampart and justified so you are not left out. it just makes sense to have a supply of what you will use anyway, especially if its possible you may not be able to get any.

other things may shut down if workers refuse to come to work. water, trucking of goods, service people,restaurants etc. may be in short supply. and may even be closed by law. maybe even police may not show up as happened in the hurricane aftermath as they took to their own families first.

Also from Cuba:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CimaVax-EGF

Juk

Scenario 1:

With lockdowns and quarantines, the initial impact will not be that devasting. It will help limit the overall spread in the population.

There are some studies now that believe that the virus does best within a specific temperature span. This matches with the observed behaviour of these types of viruses being seasonal in their overall impact.

Because of the natural seasonality of the virus and lockdown efforts, the number of cases will diminish in the northern hemisphere over the next few months.

Governments will declare success and talk about how they have "beaten the virus." People will drop their guard and relax and think the world has gone back to normal.

Starting in October the virus will start to come back and then the real freakout will begin. Many, many more people will die. Winter of 2020 - 2021 will be a disaster, but at least the virus will burn through enough of the population to prevent future serious outbreaks. Life will go on but it will take years to recover globally.

Scenario 2:

The virus mutates to a less virulent strain soon and by summer it won't be a big deal again.

Will be biggest world disaster since WW2. US deaths over 1mm, economy will fall into deep depression. Geopolitical shifts will occur, peoole will look back and refer to the pre Covid era.

Only way to contain is to fully isolate (ie Wuhan approach) which destroys the economy. Also not clear what happens when lock down is rescinded - yet another wave of death? And then what?

Take care of yourselves and I hope I am 100% wrong and disease cycle is somehow broken.

Multiple bad 2+2 posters will be quarantined to French BBV

I predict that we won't learn any long-term lessons from this.

Likely

I predict that China is lying about the reduction in their number of new cases.

I predict that the casinos will close in less than a week.

I predict that eventually, we will learn that N Korea is being devastated by the virus.

both north korea and iran. neither has any means of slowing it down. but neither has an economy to be destroyed.

I wouldn't be surprised if North Korea gets to a double digit death rate - a bunch of malnourished people and not much in a way of medical facilities