Quote:
Originally Posted by pocket_zeros
Results: Our analyses included 52,297 cases with SGTF (Omicron) and 16,982 cases with non-SGTF (Delta [B.1.617.2]) infections, respectively. Hospital admissions occurred among 235 (0.5%) and 222 (1.3%) of cases with Omicron and Delta variant infections, respectively. Among cases first tested in outpatient settings, the adjusted hazard ratios for any subsequent hospital admission and symptomatic hospital admission associated with Omicron variant infection were 0.48 (0.36-0.64) and 0.47 (0.35-0.62), respectively. Rates of ICU admission and mortality after an outpatient positive test were 0.26 (0.10-0.73) and 0.09 (0.01-0.75) fold as high among cases with Omicron variant infection as compared to cases with Delta variant infection. Zero cases with Omicron variant infection received mechanical ventilation, as compared to 11 cases with Delta variant infections throughout the period of follow-up (two-sided p<0.001). Median duration of hospital stay was 3.4 (2.8-4.1) days shorter for hospitalized cases with Omicron variant infections as compared to hospitalized patients with Delta variant infections, reflecting a 69.6% (64.0-74.5%) reduction in hospital length of stay.
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...045v1.full.pdf
Calculations from above data:
62% reduction in hospitalization admission
69.6% reduction in hospitalization duration
74% reduction in ICU admission
100% reduction in mechanical ventilation
91% reduction in mortality
On a hospitalization-load benchmark I agree with you. However if we use mortality as our benchmark, a 5x increase of Omicron cases vs Delta cases results in a 50% decrease in mortality from Omicron vs Delta. A 10x increase of Omicron cases vs Delta cases results a 0% change in mortality from Omicron vs Delta.
Going further, if we account for the reduction in both hospital admissions and hospitalization duration then even the hospital-load difference between Omicron and Delta is rather small even with a 10x increase in cases. Let's take the following sample infection numbers and assume for Delta a 1% hospitalization rate and 5 day hospital stay duration - the actual real-world % and duration for Delta doesn't matter since all the calculations for Omicron are scaled relative to Delta:
Delta:
100,000 Cases
1,000 Hospitalizations (1% of cases)
5 day average stay per hospitalization
Total hospitalization days: 5,000
Omicron:
1,000,000 Cases (10x delta)
3,800 Hospitalizations (1% Delta rate * 62% reduction in Hospitalization rate vs Delta)
1.52 average stay per hospitalization (Delta duration * 69.6% reduction in Hospitalization duration vs Delta)
Total hospitalization days: 5,776
So a 10x increase in Omicron cases vs Delta results in only a 15% increase in total hospitalization days vs Delta.