Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Well, we finally have a large and distributed sample study on seroprevalance, and it looks like earlier estimates of 10 times as many actual cases as confirmed ones is about right.
Just to head it off at the pass, that doesn't get close to herd immunity anywhere, though NYC is up to about 23%.
It is worth noting that the last sample taken in this study was May 12, and in many regions, it was much earlier. For example, the last sample taken in NYC was April 1, when the city has about 50k confirmed cases. The study finds seroprevalence of 7% at that point. Since then, the number of cases in NYC has increased by at least 5X. A separate study estimated NYC seroprevalence at 19% as of April 19.
So NYC seroprevalence could easily be 35%-40% now, and this alone goes a long way toward explaining why the NYC area is one of the few places where cases haven't increased at the rates seen across the rest of the nation.