Quote:
Originally Posted by Boris
Wow. This is very interesting. Most people who study the subject say that people greatly underestimate the chances of rare events occurring. You seem to greatly over estimate these chances. That being said, I would NEVER do anything for fun where I had a 1 in 5 chance of dying. If you are being truthful, I find it incredible that you would do this journey and think your odds of survival were 65/35. I think even the most hardcore mountain climbers and free solo rock climbers put their odds of survival at better than 65/35.
if not for fun, then what would you risk your life for? i know now that my chances of survival were much higher, but at the time i had never sailed anywhere, really knew very little & it seemed pretty risky.
obviously solo free climbers would put their risk lower. 1. they have a good deal of experience before going to these extremes 2. you have to be pretty self confident.
of course i never told anyone i might not come back. i am saying late at night when i couldn't sleep, those are the real odds i would give. i would bet there are some solo free climbers who, late at night, when no one knows would puts their odds this low, of course you will never really know. you either have the balls to risk everything or you don't & believe me i am sure some of them are not sure that they will live - but they have balls the size of your head.
what odds would you give yourself to: get online buy a boat & sail around the world in the next 5 years? greater than 65/35? i am assuming you have never sailed before, for this equation to work.
uughh, i just got home, had a good night, nice win & have had a few drinks to unwind. when i reread this, it seems to come off as beligerant- this was not my intention. i am trying to explain the thinking involved, sorry.
Last edited by de captain; 03-25-2008 at 04:01 AM.