Quote:
Originally Posted by ontheupandup
That's really interesting - does it tell you the difference in EV between potting 33/22 and checking them back? I don't think they make a great bet, but I suspect they play so poorly when checked that the EV could still be significantly better as a bet. I wonder if the potential to runner runner a straight is important.
The EV difference, according to Snowie, is actually insignificant. Assuming 100NL and a half pot open, such that the pot is 5bb when BB calls, Snowie says the EV of checking 33 (with a flush blocker/backdoor as well as the backdoor SD) is 1.47bb. Potting it increases the EV to 1.50bb. (A whole 3% of one big blind improvement!) For a half pot bet, it's indifferent at 1.47bb for a bet or check, so the strat for 33 at that size is mixed.
Just for comparison's sake, if you use Snowie's recommended sizing (pot) for your range, it gives the EV of checking back KK at 2.81bb, and betting only wins 2.39bb, so checking is considerably better than potting it. If you go with quarter pot, then betting KK gets that same 2.81bb EV that you could get by checking and the strat is again mixed. So you may as well always check back kings.
Something like KJs (combo draw) has an EV of greater than pot if you bet, and checking back would be passing up almost a big blind of EV, so that's a mandatory c-bet.
To put it another way, 33 is so weak that you're not winning much whatever you do, so it's not a blunder to just give up immediately. Apart from misclick folding with the nuts, the biggest mistake you can make on that AT4 board is to check back middle set. Betting TT has an EV of more than twice the pot (while checking nets about 8.5bb), so it's crucial you make that bet, but the bet with 33 is marginal at best.
This is all quite obvious, I guess, but I wouldn't worry about making a small mistake with an underpair on that board. I'd just want to make sure I make the right play with the monster hands, bluffcatchers and draws, since those have more EV at stake.