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Old 07-31-2018, 02:21 AM   #1
Ettrick
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The Grinder's Manual

I've just started reading the Grinder's Manual and I can't figure out Figure 1 - The EV Cycle.
Short term he wins $11 + $5 = $16
Loses $2 + $5 = $7
So he should have won $9 but it says he won $8
I feel as if I'm missing something basic.
Can anyone explain?
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Old 07-31-2018, 02:37 AM   #2
MMSS
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Re: The Grinder's Manual

It's a pretty bad graphic but what it is trying to show is that a decision you make will have an expected value which is what matters but in the short term that decision will have a variety of outcomes (each not necessarily equally likely). So just because the decision tree splits into 5 doesn't mean that all are given equal weighting. So +11 might happen 30% of the time whilst $-2 only 5% etc.

A problem a lot of poker players have when starting is thinking that because they made a choice and lost $5 it must have been a bad choice but if in reality the EV of that decision was +$8 it's obviously not a bad choice (unless we have a choice that makes even more EV).
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Old 07-31-2018, 09:51 AM   #3
Ettrick
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Re: The Grinder's Manual

Thanks MMSS. I get it now.
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Old 08-09-2018, 02:48 AM   #4
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Re: The Grinder's Manual

Hand 29.

Hero has QQ.
Flop comes A, 6, 2
The author doesn't mention that the aggro fish could have an A.
He talks as if the QQ is the definitely the best hand even though there is an A on the flop.
Why doesn't he mention the possibility that the aggro fish could have an A?
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Old 08-09-2018, 08:10 AM   #5
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Re: The Grinder's Manual

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ettrick View Post
Hand 29.

Hero has QQ.
Flop comes A, 6, 2
The author doesn't mention that the aggro fish could have an A.
He talks as if the QQ is the definitely the best hand even though there is an A on the flop.
Why doesn't he mention the possibility that the aggro fish could have an A?
Get equilab. Put in villains range at approax 50% give yourself QQ and put the flop in and see what villains range looks like.

Villain will have aces, probably not the very strongest ones as his 3b is fairly reasonable (and realisitically villain probably isn't positionally aware with stats like his). But as his range is so wide and he's going to be better a very large part of it we are easily able to call.

tl;dr - Villain has a lot of aces but as he is betting so wide this is still a tiny part of his betting range.
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Old 08-09-2018, 12:01 PM   #6
Ettrick
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Re: The Grinder's Manual

Quote:
Originally Posted by MMSS View Post
Get equilab. Put in villains range at approax 50% give yourself QQ and put the flop in and see what villains range looks like.

Villain will have aces, probably not the very strongest ones as his 3b is fairly reasonable (and realisitically villain probably isn't positionally aware with stats like his). But as his range is so wide and he's going to be better a very large part of it we are easily able to call.

tl;dr - Villain has a lot of aces but as he is betting so wide this is still a tiny part of his betting range.
So does author mean even though villain will have Aces sometimes just play it as if he doesn't because in the long term it will be profitable?
eg 8 times out of 10 hero will have better hand so it doesn't matter if he loses 2 out of 10?
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Old 08-09-2018, 12:47 PM   #7
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Re: The Grinder's Manual

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ettrick View Post
So does author mean even though villain will have Aces sometimes just play it as if he doesn't because in the long term it will be profitable?
eg 8 times out of 10 hero will have better hand so it doesn't matter if he loses 2 out of 10?
Well it isn't playing it as though villain doesn't have those hands it's doing it for the reason you give the second part of your post.
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