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Originally Posted by imfatandugly
Thanks for all your thoughtful responses, they are appreciated.
You're welcome.
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There are clearly too many situations to remember. I am just suggesting that if you run a large amount of simulations you develop an unconscious feel for the amount of equity you have. I'm not sure how this is different from "remembering" but it is . You can also use deductive reasoning to get a more accurate guess. If you know if when you have TP+ nut low, you have 55% equity, and with the the bare nut low draw you have 40% then if I have middle pair + nut low, then I have around 47%. Examples abound.
You can also remember in terms of hand strength. If I have TP + flush draw + strong low draw I don't have to calculate anything.
If that method is working well for you, I suggest you stick to it.
I've run a lot of simulations, probably tens of thousands, but I haven't always focused on equities. My Wilson simulator does not include "equities." It's only when I use ProPokerTools that I sometimes am interested in "equities."
I suppose I could have focused more on equities. Interesting idea, actually. But that's not the approach I used.
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The real issue I have with all these calculations is that it is near impossible to do in real time.
I'm old school... went through college and grad school using a K&E slide rule. You have to be able to quickly approximate in order to know where to put the decimal point. Maybe making quick approximations is becoming a lost art. (However, I know some younger poker experts who can do the necessary math in their heads better than I can).
From going through many repeated calculations, I do naturally remember some numbers that come up repeatedly. That makes the calculations easier and more familiar.
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On the turn it's quite a bit easier... but with multiple streets to go it's quite complicated. I think this technique is useful for away from the table calculations. When done many times this can lead to a feel for when you have "more than your fair share" of equity.
I think that's true. I simply haven't focused on equity.
Like I say, I can count and apportion outs rather quickly under game conditions, and I can approximate implied pot odds or implied half pot odds rather quickly... but it honestly would be difficult for me to calculate equities in my head while sitting at the table and trying to outplay my opponents. I'd have to have a very good idea of the equity of my hand, considering the board cards and the action... and I don't. I simply haven't been thinking that way.
But that shouldn't matter if you
have been thinking that way and if you
do have a good idea of the equity of your hand, considering the board cards and the action. Do whatever works well for you.
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Just thinking: maybe there is a way to fuse the two methods together.
Maybe. Or if I happen to get into a situation where I'm pretty sure I know the equity, I'll use that as a short cut. I haven't tried that yet, but I think it's a worthwhile suggestion.
I think having favorable equity is equivalent to having favorable odds.
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Count your half and whole pot outs, say you have m. Each full out counts for x% of equity, is m*x% more than your fair share? Yes? Then raise (provided your not pushing people out). I know there are some complications, like outs not being worth the same on turn as flop. But then it's just two numbers you have to remember!
I see more to it... a lot more. What to do falls into the broad category of "playing poker" for me.
I like to know when the odds are favorable. But I'm not always going to raise when the odds are favorable. Rightly or wrongly, I'm trying to outplay my opponent(s)... and there's more involved than whether one has favorable odds or favorable equity.
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This method also lends itself to partial outs, like when you think your flush draw will be good 80% of the time you hit it or when you are drawing to the second nut low etc.
I see.
What I don't see is how to know your equity when your chance of winning includes, among other things, a flush draw you think will be good 80% of the time. (But then I also don't see how to know whether or not you have favorable odds to bet such a hand).
Buzz