Quote:
Originally Posted by 4-Star General
Sry for the confusion, obv that's my fault, I'm hoping I'm expressing better this time
Goal: build a simple model in order to gain experience with your EV calc method
Model 1
6max
UTG (Villain, 80bb) raises with AA
Hero (BTN, 100bb) has 44 and want to setmine
Villain cbets 100%
Hero folds everytime doesn't hit the set
When Hero hits, Villian is going to stack off 100% of the times
Maybe I didnt' understand well, I thought our expected stack size will be our stack, not the effective stack.
So in my model above, the EV fold = 80?
Ah, about the effective stacks -- the thing is, (in a cash game) it won't affect your decision at all if stacks are 80 and 100 (as they really are) or 80 and 80, since Hero's extra 20bb behind won't ever come into play. And some calculations are a bit easier if stacks are even, so I usually just do calcs as if both players had the effective stack. But let's not take that shortcut, for the sake of the exercise.
So,
EV(fold) = (stack we end up with when we fold) = 100
and
EV(call) = (chance we hit)*(stack we end up with when we hit) + (chance we miss)*(stack we end up with when we miss)
So, if you assume the blinds always fold, you hit 12.2% of the time (took that number from your earlier post), and when you miss, you snap-lose the pot, and when you hit, you stack Villain, we get:
EV(call) = 0.122*(181.5) + (1-0.122)*(100-X)
where X is how much you have to call preflop to see the flop (i.e. his open raise size).
You can set EV(call) == EV(fold) and solve for X to find the open sizing that makes calling and folding have equal EV, and then if the open size is any smaller, calling is better, and if it's any larger, folding is better.
Quote:
Model 2
6max
UTG (Villain, 80bb) raises with AA
Hero (BB, 100bb) has 44 and want to setmine
Villain cbets 100%
Hero folds everytime doesn't hit the set
When Hero hits, Villian is going to stack off 100% of the times
In the first model when we are on the BTN, the maximum that we can win is the eff stack (80bbs), but what about model 2 when we are on the BB
How much are we winning everytime we stack off?
181,5 or 180,5?
Yea, in the first model if the blinds fold and you stack Villain, you end up with your original 100, plus the 1.5 in blinds, plus Villain's stack for 181.5 total.
In the second case, you get your original 100, plus Villain's 80, plus the SB for 180.5. (Or you could say, you end up with 1.5 in blinds, Villain's 80, plus the 99 you have after you post blinds.)