Quote:
Originally Posted by 4-Star General
Hero opens to 2BB with 44
Villain 3bets to 6BB
Hero want to setmine, and he's calling 4BB
Assuming he's going to fold if he doesn't hit his set
How much BBs he has to make on average in order to compensate the preflop loss?
Below I made some calcs but I'm not sure it them are ok
-4 * 89 times = -359 BBs (loss over 100 trials)
359 / 11 = 32 BBs (amount we have to make on average each time we hit)
Since I'm getting about 32BBs, I think with your method I should get 132, which is our stack after we win the pot when we setmine.
However I tried but I can't figure out how to do it.
So the question is simple, how can you calculate how big should be your stack after setmining in order to compensate the loss when you doesn't hit
(sry for the language barrier, if you didn't understand I will rewrite my thoughts better)
Thanks, ya I agree with Sevendeuceo that setmining's usually not great hu. As compared to other formats, Villain's range is weaker which makes it harder to get paid when we hit but should also let us win more unimproved. But we can treat it like a math problem anyway.
So are we assuming 100 BB stacks? Then, we can find how much we need to end up with when we hit to make it a profitable call by setting EV(call 3-bet) = EV(fold to 3-bet). That'll give us the point where we have a break-even call, and then if calling's any better, we have a clear call, and if it's any worse, we have a clear fold.
So, EV(fold to 3-bet) = 98 BB.
And EV(call 3-bet) = (chance we miss)*(94BB) + (chance we hit)*(how much we end up with when we hit)
Your calculations seem to imply that (chance we hit) is 11%. That's close to the chance of flopping a set, and I'll go with it for consistency. So, plugging in, we have a break-even call when:
98 = (0.89)*94 + (0.11) * X
and so X = 130.4. Our stack needs to be that big at the end of the hand, on average when we flop a set, to make the call profitable (assuming we snap-lose whenever we don't flop a set). Other ways to think about that number are that Villain needs to put 30.4 into the pot over the whole hand, on avg, or to say that he needs to put 24.4 in postflop, since he put 6 in pre
I'm not quite sure where your earlier equation came from, so it's hard to say what was wrong with the reasoning that led to it.