Quote:
Originally Posted by SemPeR
Great book.
I have a question for the author, or really anyone willing to help. I'd only post if I already spent a couple hours on it, so I'm a little frustrated.
I read through chapter 4 and understand what the indifference principle is and how it works. I'm trying to do the exercise on page 130 for a bunch of spots, but don't understand how we can start with:A flop and two ranges, say that SB has to shove 66% over a BB's halfpot cbet to make his bluffs indifferent...and then so easily come up with the enumerated hand range for SB's shoving range.
How is it done? I can't figure it out in pro poker tools.
In the example there is an 8h6c5d flop. (ph 124)
We find SB can jam 2/3 of the time to make BB indifferent between c/f and b/f with his bluffs.
How did we go from "top 35% of preflop hands", to "top 2/3 of these hands ranked by equity versus BB's range"?
What I'm doing now:
-Use Odds oracle to find out that SB has minimum equity of X, 66% of the time.
-Go through the range, and take out the hands that have <X equity.
-Be left with a range that always has too many combos for 66% of the actual range.
I don't understand why this isn't working. Help?
Thanks so much,
Semper
Yea, so the situation here is that we have a 3-bet pot with short stacks, and in this simple case, we assume SB is playing jam-or-fold versus a c-bet, and BB is either check-folding, bet-folding, or bet-calling.
At the beginning of flop play, the pot is 10 BB, there's 25 BB behind, and we assumed a half-pot c-bet. If we check-fold, we end up with 25 BB, and if we bet-fold we end up with 20 + 15*X, where X is SB's fold-to-cbet frequency. So we are indifferent between the two actions with our weak hands when X=1/3, i.e. when SB's jamming 2/3 of the time facing a c-bet.
So if he jams more than 2/3, we only c-bet with hands strong enough to bet-call, and this likely incentivizes him to stop jamming so much, and if he jams less than 2/3, we c-bet with all of our weak hands, and this likely incentivizes him to jam more, so the equilibrium is likely when SB is jamming 2/3 of the time when facing a c-bet.
So to make an approximation of his jam-versus-cbet range, we just take the top 2/3 of the hands with which he faces a c-bet -- that is, the top 2/3 of the hands with which he gets to the flop in the first place. We assumed he got to the flop with the top 35% of hands (not an amazing estimate of most players' 3-bet calling ranges, but that wasn't the point of the example) so we assumed he jams flop with the top 2/3 of the top 35% of hands. So basically, we start with the top 35% of hands (as ranked by preflop all-in equity) as an estimate of SB's flop starting range. Then we take the top 2/3 of those (as ranked by equity on that particular flop versus BB's flop starting range) and took that as an approximation of his equilibrium jam-versus-cbet range.
Of course, this is just an approximation. His actual shoving range will be the top 2/3 of hands versus the BB's calling range (up to card elimination effects and assuming the Indifference Principle's assumptions are satisfied), but hand rankings by equity versus his flop starting range should be pretty close to hand rankings according to equity versus his shove-calling range, so the top 2/3 of hands versus his flop starting range should be about right.
I don't understand your procedure using Odds Oracle. Perhaps my explanation has answered your question, but if not, could you explain further? I don't think I've ever used the software myself. What is X?
Hope this helps,
Will