Quote:
Originally Posted by Deckerd
Hi all,
first post yay
I think it has been asked before, but I got stuck at deriving the formula on page 337 EV_bet - EV_chk.
I have no idea where I'm wrong but my thinking was like this:
EV_chk = P(win) * Pot
It is strange however that this indicates that we still lose only our bet when we bet-fold instead of losing pot+bet....
EV_bet = Pot * (1-P(call)-P(raise)) + P(call)*[P(win|call)*(pot+bet)+(P(lose|call)*(-bet)] + P(raise)*[-Pot-Bet]
Any ideas?
Thx
Konstantin
Found it... So for anyone interested:
MDF: Min Defense Freq = 66.70%
Pc*P(w|c): %Range villain calls and wins = 10%
Pr*V% = %Range villain raises for value(=win) = 5%
Pr*B% = %Range villain raises as a bluff = 2.1%
Pr: %Range villain raises = 5%+2.1% = 7.1%
Pc*P(l|c): %Range villain calls and loses = MDF-Pr-Pc*P(w|c)
EVs from hero's perspective:
EV_check = Pot * (1 -Pc*P(w|c) -Pr*V%)
EV_bet = EV_fold + EV_call + EV_raise
EV_bet = Pot*(1-Pc*P(w|c)-Pc*P(l|c)-Pr) + Pc*[P(l|c)*(Pot+bet)+P(w|c)*(-bet)] + Pr*(-bet)
EV_bet - EV_check equals the formula from p.337:
(bet)*(MDF-Pc*P(w|c)-Pr*V%-Pr*B%) - (bet)*(Pc*P(w|c)+Pr*V%) - (bet+pot)*(Pr*B%)
where B% = (1-V%)
It is strange though as this indicates that we lose only our bet when we bet-fold instead of losing pot+bet....
Last edited by Deckerd; 07-22-2018 at 03:55 PM.
Reason: too fast too furious